KYIV INFRASTRUCTURE FAILURE (0409Z, TASS/Klitschko, HIGH): Kyiv Mayor reports new, significant disruptions to heating and water supply following nighttime strikes.
BORYSPIL VECTOR (0423Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): UAVs in Kyiv Oblast have been detected on a southern course specifically targeting the Boryspil area.
NEW SOUTHERN UAV THREAT (0416Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Loitering munitions detected approaching Zaporizhzhia from a southern vector, indicating a multi-axis saturation effort.
KUPYANSK ATTRITION CLAIM (0428Z, TASS/RU MoD, LOW): Russian MoD claims the "Zapad" (West) grouping has inflicted personnel and equipment losses on UAF near Kupyansk. [UNCONFIRMED]
VDV OPERATIONAL CONTINUITY (0431Z, Dnevnik Desantnika, MEDIUM): Continued reporting from Russian paratrooper channels mixing drone operational updates with internal propaganda, reinforcing the 0401Z assessment of VDV readiness.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Kyiv/Boryspil): The situation in Kyiv has degraded from "air alert" to "infrastructure crisis." The 0423Z movement toward Boryspil suggests a deliberate attempt to interdict key logistics/transport hubs or remaining air defense assets protecting the capital's southern approaches.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia): A new drone vector has opened from the south (0416Z). This shifts the threat profile from previous KAB-centric (glide bomb) attacks to integrated drone/missile saturation.
Eastern Sector (Kupyansk): Russian forces (Group Zapad) are maintaining high kinetic pressure. RU MoD video evidence (0428Z) suggests active engagement on the outskirts of the city, likely aimed at the "messy" situation at the Central District Hospital reported in the daily brief.
Central Sector: General drone danger persists across central oblasts (0425Z), keeping air defense units dispersed and preventing the concentration of assets to protect Kyiv or Zaporizhzhia.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Enemy Capabilities: The RU "rolling" attack has evolved into a multi-axis encirclement of the airspace. By simultaneously threatening Boryspil (North), Zaporizhzhia (South), and central hubs, the enemy is forcing the UAF to make impossible choices regarding the allocation of limited interceptors.
Tactical Course of Action: The focus on Kyiv's heating and water (0409Z) confirms a "negotiation by fire" strategy, using the winter weather as a force multiplier to break civilian morale while maintaining pressure on the Kupyansk-Lyman line.
Logistics: The previously noted silence at the 260th GRAU Arsenal continues to suggest that the munitions for this high-tempo cycle are already forward-deployed and being expended in the current waves.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: UAF Air Force continues to provide high-fidelity tracking of loitering munitions. However, the 0409Z report of infrastructure failure indicates that even with successful interceptions, the "leaking" of even a few munitions—or the impact of falling debris—is achieving the enemy's strategic effect on the energy grid.
Ground Forces: Units in the Kupyansk sector are reportedly under heavy pressure from the "Zapad" group. The loss of equipment claimed by RU MoD (0428Z) suggests high-intensity localized clashes.
Information environment / disinformation
Deepfake Warning (0404Z, TASS): The RU Ministry of Internal Affairs is warning of AI-synthesized voice/video fraud. While framed as domestic crime prevention, this may also be a preemptive "poisoning of the well" to discredit potential leaked audio/video of Russian military failures or to mask their own deepfake operations against Ukrainian command.
Strategic Signaling: South Korea's announcement of domestic EW aircraft development (0403Z) is being amplified by RU milbloggers (Colonelcassad) likely to frame the conflict within a broader global arms race, justifying continued Russian mobilization.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued UAV strikes targeting Boryspil and Zaporizhzhia infrastructure. Expect a "second pulse" of missiles if RU tactical aviation (MiG-31Ks noted in daily report) conducts a follow-up sortie to exploit current AD saturation.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A breakthrough in the Kupyansk sector by the Zapad group, supported by localized EW superiority, aimed at severing UAF logistics before the 6-hour window closes.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirmation of BDA at Boryspil. Is the target the airfield, nearby logistics centers, or AD sites?
[HIGH] Verifying the 0428Z RU MoD claims of UAF losses in Kupyansk. Determine if this represents a tactical setback or a significant breach of the defensive line.
[MEDIUM] Monitor the impact of Kyiv infrastructure failures on military C2 (Command and Control) centers that may rely on the city's power/heating grid.
