DIPLOMATIC - TRILATERAL TALKS (1523Z-1528Z, TASS/Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH): Official negotiations between Ukraine, Russia, and the USA have commenced in Abu Dhabi, confirmed by the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
AIR DOMAIN - KHARKIV (1511Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): Russian combat UAV strike confirmed in the Industrial District of Kharkiv; tactical UAVs remain active over the city (1518Z, AFU Air Force).
AIR DOMAIN - ZAPORIZHZHIA (1519Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH): Confirmed launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) targeting the Zaporizhzhia region.
GROUND DOMAIN - DONETSK (1517Z, Colonelcassad/Zvezda, LOW): Russian sources claim the "liberation" of Siminovka and the surrender of UAF personnel; remains UNCONFIRMED by independent or Ukrainian sources.
EQUIPMENT ATTRITION - ARTILLERY (1530Z, Voin DV, LOW): Pro-Russian sources claim the destruction of a Ukrainian "Bogdana" self-propelled howitzer via drone strike; video evidence provided but location and date UNCONFIRMED.
LOGISTICS - KUPYANSK (1515Z, Starshe Eddy, MEDIUM): Reports indicate Russian "West" Group drone units are being dual-tasked for both FPV strikes and tactical resupply (logistics) to forward units.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo is increasingly defined by "negotiation by fire." As formal trilateral talks begin in Abu Dhabi, Russia has shifted from nationwide aero-ballistic posturing (MiG-31K all-clear issued 1503Z) to intensive tactical strikes on urban centers and frontline logistics. Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia are currently under sustained pressure from KABs and combat UAVs. The battlefield geometry remains stable but under extreme stress in the Kupyansk and Kostiantynivka directions.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Tactical Adaptations (UAV Logistics): A significant development in the Kupyansk sector is the reported use of heavy drones by the Russian "West" Group for resupply (1515Z). This suggests an adaptation to Ukrainian fire control over traditional ground lines of communication (GLOCs), allowing besieged or forward-deployed Russian units to maintain combat power.
Force Generation: The BARS-13 volunteer unit has initiated a new recruitment drive (1502Z), indicating a continued reliance on "volunteer" irregulars to offset high attrition rates in Donetsk.
Drone Operations: Russian "Unmanned System Forces" are maintaining high-frequency strikes on Ukrainian rotations, specifically in the Kostiantynivka direction (1508Z, Mash на Донбассе), aiming to prevent the stabilization of UAF defensive lines.
Course of Action: Russia is likely to maintain or increase the volume of KAB and UAV strikes on Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia over the next 12 hours to maximize leverage for their delegation in Abu Dhabi.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Air Defense Posture: UAF successfully managed the transition from a nationwide ballistic alert to localized defense. However, the persistent presence of UAVs over Kharkiv (1518Z) indicates a saturation of local short-range air defense (SHORAD).
Tactical Operations: Ukrainian drone units continue to demonstrate high lethality, with localized reports showing "competition" for targets, maintaining high morale at the tactical level (1531Z, Butusov Plus).
Operational Constraints: Russian pressure on rotations in the Donbas (Kostiantynivka) remains a primary concern for maintaining unit readiness and troop rotation cycles.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Diplomatic Shaping: Russian state media (TASS) and pro-Russian Telegram channels are synchronized in announcing the Abu Dhabi talks, framing them as a venue for "maximalist territorial demands" (as noted by German intelligence sources via The Guardian/Tsaplienko, 1512Z).
Hybrid Narratives: Russian sources are aggressively pushing "surrender" footage from Siminovka (1517Z) to influence the psychological climate of the ongoing negotiations.
Strategic Distraction: Reports on a potential "Trump Deal" involving Greenland minerals (1526Z) are circulating, likely intended to distract from immediate battlefield developments and create friction within NATO regarding long-term US interests.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Sustained KAB/UAV strikes on Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia industrial sectors through the night (Jan 23-24) to disrupt Ukrainian reserves while diplomatic talks proceed.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A breakthrough in the Kupyansk or Kostiantynivka sectors, leveraged by the Russian delegation in Abu Dhabi to demand immediate territorial concessions under the "Anchorage Formula" framework.
Timeline: The next 24-48 hours are critical as the "official part" of the Abu Dhabi talks continues. Expect high-intensity kinetic "demonstration" strikes.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm/Deny Russian control of Siminovka. Assess the impact on adjacent UAF defensive positions.
[HIGH] Verify the alleged destruction of the "Bogdana" SPG and identify the specific unit affected to assess artillery capability loss in the East.
[HIGH] Monitor for the deployment of heavy Russian logistics drones in other sectors beyond Kupyansk.
[MEDIUM] Assess the impact of the UAV strike on Kharkiv's Industrial District; determine if energy or production infrastructure was the primary target.
