CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE - ZHYTOMYR (1343Z, DSNS, HIGH): A Russian strike has hit a critical infrastructure object in Zhytomyr Oblast, sparking a significant fire. This follows the morning's nationwide emergency outages.
TACTICAL TECH - UAS INTEGRATION (1357Z, Fedorov/UA Gov, HIGH): Official launch of "Mission Control," a digital system integrating all UAS operations into the DELTA ecosystem to centralize drone command and data fusion.
DIPLOMATIC - "ANCHORAGE FORMULA" (1336Z/1355Z, Reuters/RBK-UA, MEDIUM): Emerging details of the proposed formula suggest a full UAF withdrawal from the Donbas in exchange for Russian reparations, security guarantees, and Western investment. Zelenskyy reportedly maintains a firm rejection of these terms.
DEEP STRIKE - OCCUPIED TERRITORY/RU (1334Z/1340Z, GSOU, HIGH): UAF General Staff confirms successful strikes against a Russian oil depot, radar installations, and other "important objects" both in occupied areas and within the Russian Federation.
GROUND TACTICAL - NOVOPAVLIVKA (1346Z, Sternenko, MEDIUM): Russian forces launched a new assault overnight; UAF reports successfully repelling the advance using FPV drones.
FORCE GENERATION - RUSSIA (1336Z, ASTRA, MEDIUM): RU MoD is investigating reports of conscripts in one unit being denied water to coerce them into signing professional military contracts.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo is increasingly synchronized with the trilateral diplomatic track in Abu Dhabi. Russia is employing a "coercive diplomacy" model, combining heavy glide bomb (KAB) usage on the frontline with strikes on rear infrastructure (Zhytomyr) to exhaust Ukrainian resilience. Conversely, Ukraine has escalated its deep-strike campaign against Russian logistics (oil depots) and radar nodes to degrade Russian sensing and sustainment capabilities before any potential "freeze" is enforced.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Air Operations: Significant increase in KAB (glide bomb) launches targeting both the Donetsk (1350Z) and Kharkiv (1356Z) sectors. This indicates a high sortie rate for the VKS intended to suppress Ukrainian forward defensive positions.
Tactical Course of Action: In the Novopavlivka direction, Russia has transitioned from localized probing to larger-scale overnight assaults (1346Z). In the Zaporizhzhia sector, Russian sources claim "successful engagements," suggesting a push to improve tactical geometry (1344Z).
Personnel & Morale: Persistent reports of coercive recruitment (denial of water to conscripts, 1336Z) and the liquidation of six officers (1344Z) underscore the high-friction environment within the Russian command structure.
Internal Security: The Russian MFA is moving to criminalize the failure of citizens abroad to report foreign residency (1339Z), likely a measure to track and potentially target the "relocant" population for future mobilization or asset seizure.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Force Multiplication: The rollout of "Mission Control" (1357Z) is a critical operational milestone. By unifying UAS streams into the DELTA system, UAF aims to mitigate the "electronic fog of war" and improve the efficiency of drone strikes, which were instrumental in repelling the Novopavlivka assault.
Counter-Logistics: The General Staff's confirmation of strikes on oil depots and radar (1334Z) indicates a coordinated effort to blind Russian ISR and starve the "Zapad" and "Yug" groupings of fuel prior to any potential shift in the diplomatic landscape.
Morale & Resolve: High-level diplomatic pushback, specifically Deputy FM Sybiha’s public confrontation with Hungarian PM Orbán (1337Z), signals that the Ukrainian leadership is not currently prepared to accept the territorial concessions outlined in the "Anchorage Formula."
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Negotiation Narratives: Pro-Russian sources (Alex Parker, 1336Z) are framing the "Anchorage Formula" as a done deal between Moscow and Washington, portraying Zelenskyy as the sole obstacle to peace. This is a classic "wedge" operation designed to isolate the Ukrainian executive from international partners.
Atrocity Documentation: Continued release of SBU interrogation footage (1341Z) regarding the execution of POWs in Kursk serves as a counter-narrative to the "reparations and peace" talk, reminding the international community of the ongoing war crimes.
Propaganda: Russian channels are actively circulating Scott Ritter clips (1350Z) to promote "Russia as a partner" narratives to Western audiences, likely timed to coincide with the Abu Dhabi talks.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Over the next 6-12 hours, Russia will maintain its KAB strike frequency against Donetsk and Kharkiv while continuing Shahed/UAV probes toward central Ukraine (Lozova/Poltava). This is intended to maintain high "negotiation pressure" on Kyiv.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A major breakthrough in the Novopavlivka or Kupyansk sectors, enabled by the current KAB surge, which could force a collapse of local Ukrainian lines and present Kyiv with a "fait accompli" regarding the Donbas withdrawal prior to the conclusion of the Abu Dhabi summit.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Assess BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) from the Zhytomyr infrastructure strike; determine if this affects the regional distribution grid or the national 750kV backbone.
[URGENT] Confirm the specific locations of the oil depots and radar stations struck by UAF (Ref: GSOU 1334Z) to identify which Russian tactical groupings are most degraded.
[HIGH] Verify the status of the Russian assault in the Novopavlivka direction—determine if UAF has restored the "status quo ante" or if Russian forces have seized new tactical high ground.
[MEDIUM] Monitor for any signs of "Mission Control" system performance in real-time combat to evaluate its effectiveness against Russian EW (Electronic Warfare) environments.
