DIPLOMATIC - MILITARY-ONLY DELEGATION (0940Z, TASS, HIGH): The Kremlin confirmed that the Russian side of the trilateral security group in Abu Dhabi will consist exclusively of military personnel. This signals a refusal to engage in civilian/political concessions and reinforces a "security-first" posture.
DIPLOMATIC - DONBAS PRECONDITION (0945Z, OperativnoZSU/TASS, HIGH): Dmitry Peskov stated that a "key condition" for negotiations is the total withdrawal of Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) from the Donbas region. This maximalist demand is likely a tactical "anchoring" maneuver ahead of the evening talks.
AERIAL THREAT - UAV INFILTRATION (0938Z-0944Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH): Active Shahed-type UAV incursions are currently tracking from Kharkiv toward Poltava and from the east toward Dnipro city.
KINETIC - VREMIVKA SECTOR STRIKES (0945Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Russian 11th Air and Air Defense Army (Group "East") conducted airstrikes on UAF positions near Voždvyzhivka.
BATTLEFIELD TECHNOLOGY - COMMS TARGETING (1000Z, Voin DV, MEDIUM): Russian drone units (5th Army) are increasingly prioritizing the destruction of UAF field communications equipment rather than just personnel or armor.
TECHNICAL - SU-75 DEVELOPMENT (0934Z, Basurin, LOW): Claims that the Su-75 "Checkmate" has been fitted with the Su-57's engine. [UNCONFIRMED/PROBABLE TECHNICAL PROPAGANDA]
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is currently dominated by a snowy, low-visibility weather pattern across the northern and eastern fronts (0934Z), which is influencing tactical movement and drone optics. Russia has transitioned from general "shaping" strikes to highly specific diplomatic-military synchronization. The battlefield geometry is being leveraged to support the Kremlin’s demand for a UAF withdrawal from Donbas, while kinetic pressure is applied in the Vremivka sector to prevent UAF reserves from shifting north.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Diplomatic-Military Synchronization: By sending an "exclusively military" delegation to Abu Dhabi (0940Z), Russia aims to frame the conflict as a purely territorial/security dispute, bypass political negotiations, and potentially force a localized ceasefire on their terms (Donbas withdrawal).
Tactical Course of Action: In the Vremivka/Southern sector, the 11th Air Army is conducting "clearing" strikes (0945Z), likely intended to fix Ukrainian forces in place while the Donbas demand is debated in the UAE.
Hybrid Operations: Russian channels (0943Z) are heavily amplifying localized civil disobedience in Ukraine (e.g., a confrontation with mobilization officers in a garage) to project an image of domestic instability within the UAF rear.
Internal Stability: Persistent internal friction remains in the RF, evidenced by the reclassification of a criminal case in St. Petersburg where security guards killed a civilian (0953Z), a point of contention among nationalist mil-bloggers (0957Z).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Air Defense Posture: High activity reported in the Poltava and Dnipro sectors. Air Force assets are actively tracking east-to-west UAV flight paths (0944Z).
Civilian Impact/Resilience: A severe strike on Druzhkivka (0958Z) resulted in significant residential damage, adding to the humanitarian burden in the Donbas sector just as negotiations begin.
Law Enforcement: Successful joint operation with Czechia to dismantle an international investment fraud scheme (0945Z) demonstrates continued functional state institutions and international intelligence cooperation despite frontline pressure.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Pre-Negotiation Narratives: Russia is using a "pincer" narrative: Peskov's Donbas withdrawal demand (0950Z) and Orbán's claim that Ukraine will not enter the EU for 100 years (0943Z). The goal is to maximize Ukrainian "negotiation fatigue."
NATO Disruption: RU-aligned channels (Rybar, 0935Z) are amplifying internal NATO contradictions and Trump-related statements to suggest a breakdown in Western security guarantees.
Legal Deterrence: The sentencing of an Uzbek citizen in his home country for participating as a mercenary for Russia (0946Z) provides a counter-narrative to Russian recruitment efforts among Central Asian populations.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russia will maintain the Shahed UAV pressure on Poltava and Dnipro through the next 6 hours to keep UAF Air Defense occupied. In the UAE, the military-only delegation will likely present a "fait accompli" security map based on current RU positions, refusing to discuss anything other than UAF withdrawal from the Donbas.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated surge in VKS (Air Force) activity in the Vremivka and Pokrovsk sectors tonight, utilizing the military delegation's presence in Abu Dhabi as "diplomatic cover" for a surprise tactical push while the world’s attention is on the talks.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Determine if the "military-only" RU delegation includes high-ranking Gerasimov-level officers or lower-level negotiators; this will indicate the actual authority of the group.
[HIGH] Visual BDA of the Druzhkivka strike to assess if military logistics or command nodes were in proximity to the residential damage.
[MEDIUM] SIGINT/ELINT monitoring of Russian 11th Air Army communications for signs of increased FAB-3000 or similar heavy munition staging in the South.
[URGENT] Verify the validity of the "garage confrontation" video (Poddubny, 0943Z) to determine if it is a staged PSYOP or a genuine localized incident.
