UAF DEEP STRIKE - TAMAN PORT (0549Z, Шеф Hayabusa, HIGH): Visual confirmation of a successful SBU drone strike on oil terminals at the Port of Taman (Russia). This follows the Penza strike, indicating a coordinated campaign against maritime and inland energy logistics.
RUSSIAN DIPLOMATIC HARDLINE (0544Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО/Ushakov, HIGH): Kremlin aide Ushakov formally linked the continuation of the "SVO" to the "Anchorage Formula," explicitly stating Russia will not settle without a territorial solution.
KINETIC ESCALATION - KRYVYI RIH (0559Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH): City authorities report a "combined attack" that lasted nearly 24 hours. The situation remains heavy but under control (0543Z, Вілкул).
NEGOTIATION STATUS (0601Z, WarGonzo, MEDIUM): Russian sources describe the overnight Moscow talks with US envoys as inconclusive, with pro-RU channels claiming any "backroom deal" (dogovoryachok) is currently off the table (0546Z, Kotsnews).
ECONOMIC INSTABILITY - RUSSIA (0537Z, TASS, MEDIUM): The Russian Central Bank has revoked the license of "New Moscow Bank" citing federal law violations, potentially signaling liquidity or compliance stress in the secondary banking sector.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo is increasingly dictated by "negotiation through fire." Russia has intensified long-range strikes on Ukrainian industrial hubs (Kryvyi Rih) while simultaneously hardening its diplomatic stance ahead of the UAE trilateral talks. The Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) have responded with a high-impact deep-strike campaign targeting the Russian energy export and storage infrastructure (Penza, Taman), likely aimed at degrading the Russian "war chest" and logistical sustainability.
Battlefield Geometry: No significant shifts in the FLOT (Forward Line of Own Troops) reported in the last 6 hours, but high-intensity shaping operations are occurring across the Dnipropetrovsk region.
Environmental Factors: Continued winter conditions favor defensive stability, though the UAF is successfully exploiting clear windows for long-range UAV operations.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Capabilities & Intentions: The Russian Federation (RF) is using a "sustained attrition" model for its missile and drone strikes. The 24-hour attack on Kryvyi Rih (0559Z) indicates a high capacity for multi-wave, combined munitions operations (Ballistic + Shahed).
Strategic Stance: The formal introduction of the "Anchorage Formula" by the Kremlin (0544Z) suggests Russia is moving away from ambiguous ceasefire talk toward a fixed demand for territorial annexation as a prerequisite for any halt in hostilities.
Logistics: The strike on Taman (0549Z) is critical. Taman is a primary hub for fuel and grain exports in the Black Sea/Azov basin. Combined with the Penza oil depot fire (0538Z), Russia's southern and central energy logistics are under active disruption.
MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): Russia will maintain the current intensity of strikes on Ukrainian energy and civilian infrastructure in the Dnipro/Zaporizhzhia axis to maximize leverage before the UAE summit.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Deep Strike Operations: UAF/SBU have demonstrated a high degree of "reach" and precision. The ability to strike Penza (600km) and Taman (maritime logistics) within a 24-hour window indicates a well-planned, multi-axis UAV campaign.
Resilience: Despite the 24-hour combined attack on Kryvyi Rih, city administration reports the situation is "controlled," suggesting air defense effectiveness or rapid emergency response capacity is holding.
Resource Status: High demand for interceptor munitions remains a critical constraint as RF continues long-duration combined attacks.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Narrative Management: Russian state media (TASS) is heavily saturating feeds with domestic crime (0545Z - kidnapping in Krasnoyarsk; 0534Z - drug cultivation in Khabarovsk) and minor legislative proposals (0559Z) to dilute reports of successful UAF strikes and the impasse in Moscow.
Propaganda: Pro-Russian channels (Colonelcassad, 0601Z) are pushing "human interest" stories of frontline medical staff to bolster domestic morale and distract from high casualty rates.
Diplomatic Signaling: The narrative from Kotsnews (0546Z) that the "deal is off" is likely aimed at preparing the Russian public for a continued long-term conflict and managing expectations regarding the UAE talks.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Next 6-12 Hours: Expected increase in Russian VKS (Aerospace Forces) activity in the Southern sector. Likely retaliation for the Taman strike, potentially targeting Ukrainian port infrastructure in Odesa or Mykolaiv.
Strategic Decision Point: The "Anchorage Formula" creates a high-stakes threshold for the UAE talks. If the US/Ukraine delegation does not show flexibility on territory, expect a rapid escalation in RU ground assaults in the Donbas to create new "facts on the ground."
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A massive, multi-regiment Russian ground push in the Zaporizhzhia direction, synchronized with a fresh wave of ballistic strikes on Dnipro, intended to collapse the southern front while the diplomatic track is stalled.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[URGENT] Need Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for the Taman Port oil terminals. Assess the extent of disruption to Black Sea logistics.
[HIGH] Confirm the specific tactical meaning of the "Anchorage Formula" in the Russian context. Is it a reference to specific geographic lines or a broader legal framework for annexation?
[MEDIUM] Monitor for signs of the 1st Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment's redeployment (noted in previous daily report) to see if they are moving to cover the Penza/Taman gap.
[LOW] Investigate the license revocation of "New Moscow Bank" for links to sanctioned entities or capital flight issues related to the war effort.
