ZAPORIZHZHIA KAB STRIKES (0309Z, UAF AF, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has launched Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) against the Zaporizhzhia region. This represents an escalation in the southern sector following a period of ballistic focus.
NORTHERN UAV VECTOR (0315Z, UAF AF, HIGH): New UAV groups detected entering Northern Kyiv region from the Chernihiv axis. This creates a multi-vector threat when combined with the 0240Z movement toward Fastiv.
"ZOMBIE MISSILE" DEPLOYMENT (0304Z, RBK-UA, LOW): Reports of Russia using "zombie missiles" (likely repurposed training rounds or decoy missiles such as RM-48U) to saturate Ukrainian Air Defense (AD) during recent strikes.
PENZA STRIKE CONFIRMATION (0315Z, ASTRA/RU Gov, HIGH): The Governor of Penza has officially confirmed the fire at the oil depot following a UA drone strike, validating the effectiveness of UA deep-rear interdiction.
KUPYANSK TACTICAL CLAIM (0320Z, TASS/RU MoD, LOW): Russian MoD claims destruction of a UA self-propelled gun and armored vehicle in the Kupyansk sector. This remains UNCONFIRMED by independent or UA sources.
LIPETSK THREAT REDUCTION (0314Z, RU Regional Gov, MEDIUM): "Yellow level" alert cancelled in Lipetsk region, suggesting RU internal security believes the immediate UA UAV threat to that specific corridor has passed or been mitigated.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The tactical situation has shifted from a singular focus on the Kyiv periphery to a broader aerial offensive encompassing the Zaporizhzhia frontline and the Kupyansk axis.
Battlefield Geometry: RU is executing a "pincer" aerial approach on Kyiv, with UAV groups now entering from both the Bila Tserkva/Fastiv (Southwest) and Chernihiv (North) axes.
Frontline Pressure: The use of KABs in Zaporizhzhia (0309Z) indicates RU is maintaining high-intensity pressure on frontline logistics nodes while simultaneously conducting strategic strikes in the rear.
Deep Rear: The confirmation of the Penza fire (0315Z) marks a significant breach of RU's interior AD, forcing the Kremlin to choose between protecting front-line assets or critical energy infrastructure.
Tactical Maneuver (Air): The reported use of "zombie missiles" (0304Z) suggests RU is attempting to deplete UA's interceptor stocks (Patriot/IRIS-T) using low-cost decoys before launching higher-precision cruise or ballistic missiles.
Capabilities & Adaptations: In the Kupyansk sector, RU continues to utilize high-mobility strikes against UA hardware (0320Z). The cessation of the alert in Lipetsk (0314Z) suggests RU's 1st Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment (noted in previous daily report) may have successfully repositioned to cover gaps.
Sustainment: While the 120th GRAU Arsenal was noted as "quiet" previously, the immediate surge in KAB usage in Zaporizhzhia suggests that munitions are reaching forward airbases.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking) (IPB Step 3)
Air Defense Posture: UAF AD is currently managing a complex, multi-axis UAV environment. The shift of focus toward Northern Kyiv (0315Z) requires rapid repositioning of Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs).
Strike Success: UA long-range UAV units have successfully bypassed RU EW in the Penza region, achieving a kinetic effect on a strategic fuel reserve (0315Z). This degrades RU's local fuel logistics for the Southern/Eastern groupings.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain) (IPB Step 4)
Strategic Narrative: RU continues to frame the Abu Dhabi talks as a success for Putin's "scenario" (0305Z). Simultaneously, RU state media is amplifying US political discourse (JD Vance/Greenland, 0326Z) to portray the West as predatory, likely intended to drive a wedge between UA and its partners regarding "resource sovereignty."
Internal Morale: Pro-RU channels (Paratrooper's Diary, 0331Z) are maintaining high-frequency engagement with VDV units to bolster morale ahead of potential offensive operations.
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RU will continue the UAV saturation of Kyiv from two axes (North/Southwest) while escalating KAB strikes in Zaporizhzhia to fix UA reserves. The use of "zombie missiles" will likely increase in the next 6 hours to clear a corridor for a late-morning missile salvo.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RU leverages the UAV saturation to mask a large-scale mechanized assault in the Kupyansk or Zaporizhzhia sectors, coinciding with the "peace talks" to seize territory before any potential ceasefire is discussed.
Timeline:
0400Z-0600Z: High-intensity UAV engagements expected over Kyiv and Central Ukraine.
0600Z-0800Z: Potential for a concentrated KAB/MLRS barrage on Zaporizhzhia urban centers.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Technical verification of "zombie missiles": Are these RM-48U training rounds, or older Kh-55s with ballast? This impacts AD intercept calculus.
[HIGH] Confirm BDA in Kupyansk: Verify if the claimed SPG and armored vehicle losses (0320Z) are accurate or RU propaganda.
[MEDIUM] Monitor for RU troop concentrations in the Zaporizhzhia axis to determine if KAB strikes (0309Z) are preparatory or merely harassment.
[LOW] Track impact of TikTok US JV announcement (0313Z) on RU-CN information sharing agreements.
