UAV VECTOR SHIFT (0212Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): New group of Russian BPLAs (UAVs) detected moving from Cherkasy region into southern Kyiv region (Bila Tserkva district), indicating a multi-axis approach to the capital.
KAB STRIKES - SUMY & DONETSK (0217Z/0229Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Tactical aviation has launched KAB (guided aerial bombs) against targets in Sumy and Donetsk regions.
KREMLIN DUAL-TRACK SIGNALING (0222Z, RBC-UA, HIGH): Moscow has officially confirmed the Abu Dhabi talks while simultaneously stating that the "Special Military Operation" will continue, reinforcing a "negotiation by fire" posture.
PEACE COUNCIL DIPLOMATIC SHIFT (0214Z, TASS, MEDIUM): Reports indicate Donald Trump has rescinded the invitation for Canada to join the "Peace Council," suggesting a narrowing of the diplomatic circle ahead of trilateral talks.
LOGISTICAL DISRUPTION (0207Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): RU sources claim successful drone strikes against Ukrainian tactical logistics chains; UNCONFIRMED, but consistent with recent UAV ingress patterns.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The operational environment is currently defined by a "Negotiation by Fire" strategy. As delegations transit to Abu Dhabi, Russia has intensified aerial pressure across three distinct sectors to maximize leverage.
Battlefield Geometry: The aerial threat to Kyiv is now bifurcated. In addition to the northern group (0137Z), a southern group (0212Z) is now threatening the Bila Tserkva hub. KAB strikes in Sumy and Donetsk indicate localized shaping operations on the northern and eastern fronts.
Weather/Environment: No significant changes. Thermal signatures from UAF logistics vehicles remain high against cold backgrounds, facilitating RU drone-directed interdiction (0207Z).
Capabilities & Intentions: The Kremlin’s announcement (0222Z) regarding the continuation of hostilities despite the Abu Dhabi talks is a deliberate psychological operation. It signals to Ukraine that the presence of Admiral Kostyukov (GRU) in the UAE does not imply a ceasefire.
Tactical Adaptation: The move to exclude Canada from the Peace Council (0214Z) likely aligns with Russian interests to fragment NATO/G7 consensus, potentially simplifying the negotiation path for the US and Russia by removing one of Ukraine’s more hawkish allies from the immediate process.
Logistics & Sustainment: RU forces are prioritizing "logistics hunting" via UAVs (0207Z). This aims to starve frontline UA units of ammunition and fuel in the 24-48 hours preceding any potential "security deconfliction" agreements.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking) (IPB Step 3)
UAF Air Defense: Currently managing overlapping threats in the Kyiv, Sumy, and Donetsk sectors. The entry of UAVs via Cherkasy (0212Z) suggests a deliberate attempt to saturate the Bila Tserkva air defense node.
Readiness: UAF logistics are under increased pressure in the "gray zone" due to RU thermal-capable drone strikes. Forces in Donetsk and Sumy are under high-intensity KAB bombardment, requiring immediate dispersal and hardening of positions.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain) (IPB Step 4)
Russian Narratives: The Kremlin is maintaining a posture of strength, projecting that they are negotiating from a position of tactical momentum rather than necessity. Domestic focus on legal accountability (Novosibirsk collapse, 0226Z) continues to project internal stability.
US Diplomatic Posture: The rejection of the Venezuela resolution in the US House (0225Z) suggests a legislative environment that is not currently inclined to restrict executive military/force options, which may embolden the US administration's "Peace Council" maneuvers.
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russia will maintain or increase the tempo of KAB and UAV strikes through 0800Z to ensure the Abu Dhabi talks open against a backdrop of Ukrainian defensive strain. Strikes on Bila Tserkva are likely intended to disrupt rail/road movement from the south toward Kyiv.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated "double-tap" strike involving the current UAV groups and a fresh wave of Kalibr or Iskander missiles targeting C2 nodes in Kyiv while the RU delegation is physically meeting US/UA representatives, claiming "continued military necessity" as per the 0222Z announcement.
Timeline:
0300Z-0600Z: Peak UAV activity over Kyiv region; BDA from Sumy/Donetsk KAB strikes.
0700Z-1000Z: Opening statements in Abu Dhabi; potential for "leaked" RU terms designed to cause domestic friction in Ukraine.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm visual BDA of reported "logistics disruption" (0207Z) to determine if RU has successfully interdicted MSRs (Main Supply Routes).
[HIGH] ELINT monitoring of RU tactical aviation frequencies near Sumy and Donetsk to identify the scale of the KAB campaign.
[HIGH] Clarify the rationale for Canada's exclusion from the Peace Council—is this a unilateral US move or a pre-condition set by Moscow for the Abu Dhabi talks?
[MEDIUM] Monitor for any SIGINT indicating Admiral Kostyukov’s arrival in Abu Dhabi and his initial secure-comms to Moscow.
