KREMLIN TALKS CONCLUDED (0127Z, TASS, HIGH): Negotiations between Vladimir Putin and the US delegation (Witkoff/Kushner) lasted approximately four hours.
INTEL SHARING ON TRUMP-ZELENSKY (0125Z, TASS, MEDIUM): Presidential aide Yury Ushakov claims the US delegation shared details with Putin regarding the recent Trump-Zelensky meeting in Davos. (UNCONFIRMED - LOW confidence on the nature/accuracy of shared intel).
ABU DHABI DEPLOYMENT (0129Z/0131Z, TASS, HIGH): Putin has issued specific instructions to the RU delegation heading to the UAE. Kirill Dmitriev (RDIF) and Steven Witkoff will lead a bilateral working group on economic affairs in Abu Dhabi.
KINETIC ESCALATION - KHARKIV (0124Z/0129Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Multiple launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) detected targeting the Kharkiv region from the north (Russian territory).
"PEACE COUNCIL" & GREENLAND (0129Z, TASS, MEDIUM): Ushakov confirmed that the "Peace Council" and the status of Greenland were specific agenda items during the Kremlin meeting.
NATO-GREENLAND BREAKTHROUGH (0104Z, Operatsiya Z/Bloomberg, MEDIUM): Reports indicate NATO SecGen Mark Rutte reached a breakthrough regarding Greenland without direct sovereignty discussions with Trump.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The strategic landscape has transitioned from preliminary dialogue to the formation of formal bilateral mechanisms. The conclusion of the four-hour Kremlin meeting marks a pivot toward the UAE-based trilateral summit.
Battlefield Geometry: The focus of kinetic activity has shifted slightly from the Northern BPLA ingress (observed at 0053Z) to heavy tactical aviation strikes (KABs) in the Kharkiv sector.
Weather/Environment: No significant changes; winter conditions continue to favor static defense but do not impede tactical aviation or long-range BPLA/missile strikes.
Tactical Aviation: The use of KABs against Kharkiv (0124Z) serves as a "negotiation by fire" tactic. By maintaining pressure on a major urban center during high-level talks, Moscow seeks to demonstrate that diplomatic engagement does not equate to a ceasefire.
Strategic Intent: The creation of an "economic working group" involving Dmitriev (RDIF) and Witkoff (0131Z) suggests Russia is prioritizing the dismantling of the sanctions regime (specifically targeting the "shadow fleet" issues raised by the French tanker seizure) over immediate territorial concessions.
Diplomatic Maneuver: Sharing information about the Trump-Zelensky meeting (0125Z) is a classic hybrid tactic designed to sow distrust between the UAF leadership and US interlocutors, framing the US as an unreliable partner that shares "Blue Force" diplomatic secrets with the adversary.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking) (IPB Step 3)
UAF Air Defense: Transitioning focus to the Kharkiv sector to counter KAB launches. Mobile groups and AD assets are on high alert for northern ingress.
Diplomatic Posture: Ukraine remains on the defensive in the information domain regarding the "Peace Council" framework, as the agenda appears increasingly dominated by RU-US bilateral interests (Greenland, Economic Working Groups).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain) (IPB Step 4)
The "Greenland" Distractor: The inclusion of Greenland in Kremlin talks (0129Z) and NATO's reported "breakthrough" (0104Z) acts as a geopolitical wild card, potentially intended to dilute the focus on Ukrainian territorial integrity by introducing broader Arctic security/economic trade-offs.
Domestic Control (RU): The proposal to link dating profiles to "Gosuslugi" (0115Z) indicates an intensification of the Kremlin’s digital authoritarianism, aiming for total transparency of the citizen body to support long-term mobilization/sustainability.
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RU will maintain a high tempo of KAB and Shahed strikes through the 0200Z-0500Z window to provide the RU delegation in Abu Dhabi with maximum leverage. The economic working group will likely produce an initial "roadmap" for sanctions relief in exchange for a temporary localized freeze.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): The "instructions" given by Putin (0129Z) include a directive for a rapid, surprise offensive in the Kharkiv or Sumy sectors to coincide with the start of the Abu Dhabi talks, aiming to present a fait accompli before the "Peace Council" can convene.
Timeline:
0200Z-0600Z: Continued KAB/UAV activity in Kharkiv and Northern sectors.
AM JAN 23: RU delegation arrival in Abu Dhabi and initial statements from the Dmitriev-Witkoff group.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Verification of the content of the "intel sharing" regarding the Trump-Zelensky meeting. Is this a Russian fabrication or a genuine leak?
[HIGH] Monitoring of RU 1st Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment and 120th GRAU Arsenal (previously noted as "quiet") for movement toward the Kharkiv axis following KAB launches.
[MEDIUM] Detail on the NATO "breakthrough" regarding Greenland; specifically, if any security guarantees or assets were shifted away from the Eastern Flank as part of the agreement.
