DIPLOMATIC STRATEGY - ENERGY TRUCE PROPOSAL (1735Z, Tsaplienko/FT, HIGH): Financial Times reports that US and Ukrainian delegations at tomorrow’s Abu Dhabi summit will propose an "energy truce." The framework involves halting UAF strikes on Russian tankers and refineries in exchange for Russia ceasing strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
TACTICAL ENGAGEMENT - NOVOPAVLIVKA (1736Z, Butusov Plus, HIGH): The "Perun" drone unit of the 42nd Separate Mechanized Brigade successfully repelled a Russian breakthrough attempt in Novopavlivka, Dnipropetrovsk region. The assault utilized quad-bikes (ATVs), a high-mobility/low-protection tactic, resulting in its failure.
INFRASTRUCTURE CRISIS - UKRENERGO RESTRICTIONS (1739Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): Ukrenergo has announced mandatory nationwide power outage schedules for tomorrow, Jan 23. This confirms the cumulative damage from recent high-intensity strikes on the power grid.
SIVERSK SECTOR - REZNIKIVKA OFFENSIVE (1755Z, Slivochniy Kapriz, MEDIUM): Localized Russian offensive actions are reported near Reznikivka. This indicates a continued effort to pressure the Siversk salient from the south/southeast.
LOGISTICAL MONITORING - NATO SUPPLY HUB (1741Z, Basurin, MEDIUM): Russian-aligned sources report heavy NATO transport activity at the Rzeszów (Poland) hub, citing arrivals from Canada, Italy, and several EU nations. This reflects an attempt by RU-aligned channels to counter reports of "ammunition shortages."
INTERNAL RU - CHECHEN STABILITY (1746Z, Kadyrov_95, LOW): Ramzan Kadyrov held an operational meeting regarding the upcoming electoral cycle and "policy management." This likely serves as a signal of internal control amid wider regional instability.
Operational picture (by sector)
Dnipropetrovsk Sector: Russian forces attempted an unconventional high-speed assault using quad-bikes on Novopavlivka (1736Z). The failure of this maneuver suggests UAF drone surveillance and FPV response times remain effective against light mobility platforms.
Siversk Sector: Russian activity has intensified near Reznikivka (1755Z). This suggests a widening of the offensive front beyond the primary Bakhmut/Avdiivka axes.
Southern Sector (Vostok Group): Active combat operations continue in the Vostok Grouping's area of responsibility (likely Zaporizhzhia/Southern Donetsk); specific tactical results are currently under assessment (1800Z, Voin DV).
Rear/Infrastructure: The nationwide energy deficit is critical. Tomorrow's scheduled blackouts (1739Z) underscore the operational necessity of the proposed "energy truce" at the UAE summit.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action: Russia is employing "negotiation by fire." The use of high-intensity strikes on energy hubs (Kryvyi Rih) and localized "high-risk" assaults (quad-bikes in Novopavlivka) aims to maximize pressure on the UAF before the UAE summit begins.
Tactical Adaptation: The RuMoD’s highlighting of the "Rubikon Centre" FPV drone operations (1734Z) indicates a continued institutional shift toward decentralized, drone-heavy attrition tactics to suppress UAF forward positions.
Logistics: While Russian sources claim NATO is flooding Ukraine with weapons (1741Z), previous intelligence on the 120th GRAU Arsenal "flatlining" suggests Russia is also moving its own strategic reserves to the front to maintain momentum.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Resilience: The 42nd Mechanized Brigade's successful defense of Novopavlivka demonstrates the continued integration of "drone-first" defensive doctrines.
Diplomatic Posturing: Ukraine is leveraging recent deep strikes (e.g., Tamanneftegaz) as a primary bargaining chip in the FT-reported "energy truce" negotiations, using Russian economic vulnerabilities to protect Ukrainian domestic infrastructure.
Information environment / disinformation
Russian Nationalist Narrative: Russian mil-bloggers (Kotsnews, 1737Z) are shifting toward "historical identity" narratives (Lenin/Soviet history) and attacking the UA-EU relationship (1747Z) to reinforce domestic support as potential trilateral talks approach.
Escalation Signaling: The cryptic "TIME HAS COME" message from high-reach RU channels (Alex Parker, 1737Z) is assessed as a psychological operation intended to create anxiety regarding a potential major escalation or "MDCOA" strike tonight.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued Russian localized assaults in the Siversk and Dnipropetrovsk sectors. Expected wave of UAV/missile strikes tonight targeting the remaining stable nodes of the Ukrainian energy grid.
MDCOA: A major Russian breakthrough attempt on the Zaporizhzhia axis to seize key terrain before any "truce" discussions solidify in Abu Dhabi.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[HIGH] Confirm the specific Russian response to the "energy truce" proposal; monitor for signs of VKS/Navy stand-down or, conversely, pre-emptive strikes on export hubs.
[MEDIUM] Assess the combat readiness of the Vostok Grouping following reports of "active operations" (1800Z).
[MEDIUM] Verify the scale of the Reznikivka offensive (1755Z) to determine if this is a company-sized probe or a divisional-scale push toward Siversk.
