DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENT - DAVOS (1206Z-1218Z, RBK-UA/Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH): President Zelenskyy has arrived at the World Economic Forum (WEF) and has officially commenced a high-stakes bilateral meeting with Donald Trump.
DIPLOMATIC SIGNALING - PEACE TALKS (1229Z-1230Z, Stubb/Caplienko, MEDIUM): Finnish President Stubb reports that following Moscow meetings today, a two-day summit involving Ukrainian, Russian, and US National Security Advisors/negotiators is scheduled to take place in the UAE.
AIR THREAT - NORTHERN SECTOR (1206Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH): Russian UAV detected in Chernihiv Oblast, currently vectored toward Slavutych from the north.
KINETIC IMPACT - KRYVYI RIH (1209Z-1214Z, Vilkul/Astra, HIGH): Casualties from earlier strikes confirmed at 11. Transport infrastructure and movement in all targeted locations have been fully restored.
TACTICAL SUCCESS - KUPYANSK AXIS (1209Z, Caplienko/116th SMB, MEDIUM): The 116th Separate Mechanized Brigade reports the successful engagement and destruction of a "rare" high-value Russian asset.
INFORMATION OPERATIONS - "BOARD OF PEACE" (1216Z-1221Z, Operativnyi ZSU/Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Pro-Russian channels are amplifying Trump’s signing of a "World Peace Council" charter, intended to bypass the UN. Western media covers are being spoofed (e.g., The Economist) to suggest NATO's obsolescence.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Chernihiv/Slavutych):
New Ingress: A lone or small group of UAVs is currently transiting Chernihiv toward Slavutych (1206Z). Slavutych’s proximity to the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone and critical power grid nodes makes this a sensitive vector for potential infrastructure sabotage.
Eastern Axis (Kupyansk/Sloviansk):
Kupyansk: Localized success by the 116th SMB indicates high-readiness for counter-battery or electronic warfare (EW) engagements against specialized Russian equipment.
Sloviansk: Pressure remains high (per earlier daily report) with North Korean MLRS integration increasing the volume of fire.
Southern Axis (Kryvyi Rih/Zaporizhzhia):
Recovery: Civil authorities in Kryvyi Rih have shifted from search and rescue to infrastructure restoration. Transport is normalized, though the threat of follow-on BDA-driven strikes remains high.
Arctic / High North (Strategic Rear):
NATO Activity: The head of the NATO Military Committee has announced upcoming Arctic exercises (1214Z).
Diplomatic Friction: Russia is hardening its stance regarding its embassy land in Denmark, framing Danish moves as illegal "seizures" (1205Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptations: Russia is maintaining its "terror-strike" tempo in the south while using single UAV ingresses in the north to test air defense (AD) gaps or fix units away from the Donbas.
Strategic Displacement: Increased rhetoric regarding Greenland and the Arctic (1210Z-1214Z) suggests Russia is attempting to broaden the "conflict map" to force NATO to dilute resources.
Internal Logistics: Russia is testing "passport-less" biometric boarding for domestic flights (1220Z), likely a precursor to integrated movement tracking of military-age males through the Unified Identification and Authentication System.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Strategic Diplomacy: President Zelenskyy’s presence in Davos is being leveraged to counter Russian "peace" narratives by presenting Ukrainian "trump cards" directly to US leadership (1219Z).
Special Operations: DSNS (State Emergency Service) divers successfully completed a 6-day underwater operation in -15°C conditions (1216Z) to repair infrastructure damaged by previous kinetic strikes.
Frontline Resilience: Effective neutralization of high-value targets in the Kupyansk sector demonstrates the continued efficacy of Ukrainian reconnaissance-strike complexes.
Information environment / disinformation
NATO Obsolescence Narrative: Russian psychological operations (PSYOP) are heavily utilizing fabricated Western media imagery to demoralize European allies, suggesting a total US withdrawal from NATO is imminent (1224Z).
Peace Negotiation Laundering: Reports of a "World Peace Council" (1216Z) are being used to delegitimize existing international frameworks (UN/OSCE) in favor of a format where Russia holds more leverage.
Sino-Russian Optics: TASS is aggressively promoting the "strength" of the China-Russia visa-free regime (1202Z) to signal to the West that Russia is not isolated.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued tactical UAV harassment in the north (Slavutych). High probability of a diplomatic "breakthrough" or "ultimatum" leak following the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting in Davos.
MDCOA: A renewed ballistic missile wave targeting central Ukrainian logistical hubs (Dnipro/Poltava) to coincide with the conclusion of Davos sessions, intended to demonstrate that diplomatic talks have not halted Russian kinetic intent.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Verification of the "World Peace Council" charter content—is this a formal US-led initiative or a RU-manufactured narrative?
[HIGH] Identity and function of the "rare prey" destroyed by the 116th SMB in Kupyansk.
[MEDIUM] Confirmation of the UAE meeting attendees. Specifically, will there be direct RU-UA contact, or is this a "shuttle diplomacy" format?
[LOW] Status of Slavutych AD response to the 1206Z UAV ingress.
