ENERGY SECTOR THREAT (1017Z, Operatsiya Z, MEDIUM): Reports indicate Russian forces are prepping strikes against infrastructure linked to Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). This follows a confirmed drop in national power availability compared to the previous 24h (1019Z, Operatyvnyi ZSU, HIGH).
TACTICAL ENGAGEMENT - KUPYANSK (1028Z, Butusov, HIGH): UAF units successfully cleared the private sector near Rovenska Street. However, the area is described as a "kill zone" dominated by high-density FPV and reconnaissance drone activity, severely limiting movement.
CASUALTY UPDATE - KRYVYI RIH (1017Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH): Hospitalization of a woman and child confirmed following the ballistic strike on a residential building.
DRONE WAVE - ODESA/DNIPRO (1008Z-1028Z, AFU Air Force/Vanyek, HIGH): Multiple groups of Shahed-type UAVs detected. Six units are currently transiting Syneilnykove toward Dnipro; a separate group is approaching Ovidiopol (Odesa) from the Black Sea.
DIPLOMATIC DEVELOPMENTS - DAVOS (1017Z-1029Z, TASS/RBK-UA, HIGH): Donald Trump has formally introduced a "Board of Peace" (Peace Council) in Davos, naming himself chairman. Participating nations reportedly include Azerbaijan, Argentina, Kazakhstan, Indonesia, and Hungary.
INTERNAL SECURITY - UKRAINE (1030Z, Operatyvnyi ZSU, MEDIUM): NABU and SAP are conducting searches at the residence of former State Border Guard Service (DPSU) Chief Deyneka regarding cigarette smuggling allegations.
Operational picture (by sector)
Kupyansk Sector:
The tactical environment has shifted to a "drone-saturated" stalemate. While UAF forces have pushed Russian infantry out of central residential pockets (Rovenska St area), the terrain is now effectively a no-man's land where any movement triggers immediate FPV strikes. Combat is characterized by "hiding from drones" rather than traditional maneuver (1028Z).
Kharkiv/Border Sector:
Visual evidence confirms heavy devastation in the "sanitary zone" (border areas). Russian forces continue to utilize scorched-earth tactics to deny UAF the use of border infrastructure (1003Z).
Southern Axis (Dnipro/Odesa/Zaporizhzhia):
A multi-vector UAV attack is underway.
Odesa: Threats originating from the Black Sea toward Ovidiopol (1008Z).
Dnipro: High-risk window for Dnipro city, Aviatorske, and Pysmenne as 6+ UAVs transit Synelnykove (1019Z, 1028Z).
Rear/Strategic:
The energy grid is under renewed strain. The combination of previous strikes and the systematic targeting of repair crews has resulted in a net decrease in power supply today (1019Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Targeting Pivot: Intelligence suggests a shift from general grid saturation to specific "NPP-associated" targets (1017Z). This is likely intended to create maximum leverage during ongoing high-level diplomatic talks in Moscow and Davos.
Counter-Intelligence/Espionage: The trial of an Austrian intelligence officer for spying for Russia (1029Z) and the reported car accident of Russian MP Khinshtein in Kursk (1030Z) suggest ongoing volatility in Russian external and internal security operations.
Financial Maneuvering: Putin’s pledge of $1 billion to the "Peace Council" for Palestine (1028Z) is a clear attempt to hijack the "Peace Council" branding for Global South influence and to bypass Western financial restrictions on Russian assets.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Combat Morale: Units including the 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade are using "Unity Day" (Sobornist) to reinforce national cohesion amidst high-intensity combat (1009Z).
Anti-Corruption/Rule of Law: High-profile investigations into former leadership (Deyneka) and scrutiny of SAP appointments (Shevchuk scandal) continue (1017Z, 1030Z). While potentially disruptive, these demonstrate continued institutional function.
Information environment / disinformation
"Peace Council" Narratives: Trump and Putin are both aggressively branding "Peace Council" initiatives. Trump’s Davos initiative emphasizes his role as a central mediator (1021Z, 1029Z), while Russia is attempting to fund these structures to legitimize its geopolitical stance.
European Divergence: Russian state media is amplifying Belgian PM De Wever’s refusal to expropriate assets to highlight perceived cracks in EU unity (1004Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Kinetic impact from the current drone wave on Dnipro and Odesa. Expected "loud" activity in the Dnipro metropolitan area within the next 1-2 hours.
MDCOA: A transition from UAVs to a coordinated ballistic/cruise missile strike targeting substation infrastructure near NPPs to induce a localized or regional blackout during the peak of the Davos/Moscow diplomatic window.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Immediate BDA on the "NPP-related" targets mentioned in Russian channels to identify specific substations at risk.
[HIGH] Technical verification of North Korean 107mm MLRS ammunition stocks to determine if this is a sustainable fire-support shift or a stop-gap measure.
[MEDIUM] Impact of Austrian intelligence trial on Russian SIGINT/HUMINT collection capabilities in Central Europe.
