MASS DRONE ATTACK (0819Z, Vilkul/RBK-UA, HIGH): Kryvyi Rih has been under sustained "Shahed" loitering munition attack for over 10 consecutive hours; multiple explosions reported.
TECHNICAL ESCALATION (0812Z, Butusov Plus, HIGH): UAF 48th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion (48 ORB) is confirmed utilizing fiber-optic FPV drones in the Vovchansk sector, bypassing traditional EW jamming.
COUNTER-ESPIONAGE (0801Z, Gen. Prosecutor, HIGH): Two Russian assets were detained in Zakarpattia for treasonous activities/spying in Western Ukraine.
STRATEGIC INDUSTRIAL DISRUPTION (0809Z, TASS, MEDIUM): The FSB uncovered a 25M ruble fraud scheme at the Chelyabinsk Electrometallurgical Combinat, Russia’s largest producer of ferroalloys (critical for military-grade steel).
AERIAL THREAT (0825Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has launched KABs targeting the border region between Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia.
HYBRID INFO-OP (0806Z, TASS/Ops Z, LOW): Russian state media is heavily amplifying a Daily Mail report regarding a $1M-per-resident offer for Greenland to join the US, likely a distraction from Davos negotiations.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Chernihiv/Sumy): UAV incursions continue with drones transiting Ponornytsia toward Makoshyne and Borzna (0809Z). Russian "military correspondents" report intensified activity in the Sumy direction (0815Z), likely shaping operations.
Kharkiv Sector (Vovchansk): High-intensity drone warfare. UAF is employing advanced fiber-optic FPVs against Russian assets in the 16th Army Corps (AK) area of responsibility (0812Z).
Eastern Sector (Kupiansk): NGU "Kara-Dag" (15th Brigade) reports systematic destruction of Russian concentrations via FPV drones (0829Z).
Southern Sector (Kryvyi Rih/Zaporizhzhia):
Kryvyi Rih: Currently a primary target for Russian loitering munitions; high-intensity defensive engagement ongoing (0819Z).
Zaporizhzhia: UAVs detected over Balabyne (0824Z). KAB strikes on the Dnipropetrovsk border indicate a focus on logistical junctions.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation Adaptation: Russian Su-34s are conducting precision strikes on UAF drone control points and command centers in the "Center" grouping zone (0813Z).
Logistics & Industry: The FSB operation at the Chelyabinsk ferroalloy plant suggests internal friction or a crackdown on the defense industrial base (DIB) supply chain. Ferroalloy shortages would directly impact Russian tank and armored vehicle production.
Hybrid Tactics: Use of mass-media distractions (Greenland rumors) and domestic Telegram throttling (0823Z) suggests a coordinated effort to control the narrative during the Zelenskyy-Trump Davos meeting.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Posture: Air defense units are heavily engaged in the Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia sectors.
Technical Innovation: The deployment of fiber-optic drones marks a tactical shift to negate Russian EW dominance in localized sectors like Vovchansk.
Internal Security: Successful neutralization of a Zakarpattia-based spy ring indicates high vigilance in Western Ukraine/Rear areas.
Strategic Communication: Observance of Unity Day (Den Sobornosti) in frontline cities like Zaporizhzhia (0812Z) is being used to sustain civilian and military morale.
Information environment / disinformation
Negotiation Timelines: Significant emphasis is being placed on Keith Kellogg’s forecast of "peace by summer/Independence Day" (0814Z). This is being used by both sides to frame the urgency of current talks.
Cognitive Distraction: The "Greenland Buy" narrative is being pushed by Russian channels (TASS, Rybar) to portray US foreign policy as erratic or transactional, potentially to weaken European trust in US-mediated peace frameworks.
Censorship: Russian milbloggers (Starshe Eddy) are warning of Telegram instability, corroborating reports of state-level throttling to centralize information flow (0823Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued loitering munition pressure on Kryvyi Rih to exhaust local AD. Expansion of KAB strikes along the Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia axis to disrupt reserves.
MDCOA: A sudden technical failure or successful Russian strike on UAF fiber-optic drone command nodes in Vovchansk, followed by a localized ground assault.
Diplomatic: High volatility expected in the information space following the Zelenskyy-Trump Davos sideline meeting.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[HIGH] Technical exploitation of the fiber-optic FPV drones—are they resistant to all current RU EW bands?
[MEDIUM] Assessment of damage in Kryvyi Rih after 10+ hours of "Shahed" attacks; identification of specific targets (energy vs. industrial).
[MEDIUM] Confirmation of the impact of the Chelyabinsk plant fraud on immediate ferroalloy export/internal military supply.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo has shifted toward a sustained aerial campaign against Kryvyi Rih and technical innovation in the Kharkiv sector. Russia is maintaining high kinetic pressure while simultaneously throttling domestic information channels (Telegram) and amplifying Western tabloid rumors to clutter the diplomatic signal environment.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Course of Action: Russia is attempting to "blind" its own domestic critics through Telegram interference while using Su-34s to target UAF drone infrastructure.
Industrial Base: The FSB's intervention in Chelyabinsk suggests the Kremlin is increasingly sensitive to corruption within the DIB that may be hampering production quotas.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Posture: UAF is demonstrating high technological adaptability (fiber-optics) and effective counter-intelligence in rear oblasts.
Readiness: Morale remains high due to Unity Day observances, but air defense stocks in central Ukraine (Kryvyi Rih) are under extreme strain.
4. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Short-term: Expect a significant "information dump" from Russian sources tonight to counter any positive optics from the Zelenskyy-Davos meetings.
Tactical: The use of fiber-optic FPVs by UAF may force Russia to shift from EW-based defense to more kinetic point-defense (e.g., "Northern Wind" claims of destroying "Baba Yaga" drones).
CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT:
Kryvyi Rih Strike Duration: HIGH
Fiber-Optic Drone Deployment: HIGH
Chelyabinsk Plant Fraud Impact: MEDIUM
Greenland/Daily Mail Reports: LOW (Classified as Information Operation)
