ZAPORIZHZHIA ENGAGEMENT (0636Z, RU Airborne/Voznesensky, MEDIUM): Russian paratroopers report active combat engagements near the village of Pryimorske. This indicates a potential widening of the contact zone in the southern sector.
ANTI-UAV TECHNOLOGY (0645Z, Rostec/Basurin, HIGH): Russian state-owned Rostec has introduced "Mnogotochie" (Multi-dot) specialized anti-drone ammunition. These rounds utilize multi-projectile loads specifically designed to intercept small FPV and reconnaissance UAVs.
RUSSIAN LOGISTICS EXPANSION (0650Z, Zvizdets Mangustu, MEDIUM): Russian General Staff reportedly planning to transfer 2,600+ motor vehicles from reserves to assault units throughout 2026 to increase tactical mobility.
INTERNAL RU PURGES/SECURITY (0656Z, TASS/FSB, HIGH): Significant internal activity within the Russian Federation: Arrest of the Krasnodar Krai Transport Minister (Pereverzev) and the detention of a purported "Moldovan intelligence agent" in Moscow.
TACTICAL SUCCESS (0648Z, Butusov/66th OMBr, HIGH): UAF 66th Mechanized Brigade (2nd Battalion) confirmed a high-precision mortar strike on Russian assault groups using drone-corrected fire in winter conditions.
DIPLOMATIC FRICTION (0636Z, TASS/Politico, MEDIUM): Reports indicate the US has excluded Denmark from a "Peace Council" formation, a narrative being amplified by Russian state media to suggest Western fragmentation.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The operational environment is characterized by persistent tactical attrition in the Donbas and a reactivation of the Zaporizhzhia front.
Battlefield Geometry:
Zaporizhzhia Sector: New localized fighting reported at Pryimorske (south of Stepnohirsk). This terrain is critical for controlling the approaches to the Dnipro River reservoir.
Northeast/Sumy: Logistics remain strained following the Seim River bridge strike; UAF is likely pivoting to secondary supply routes.
Weather/Environmental Factors: Hard frost and high-visibility winter conditions are currently favoring precision indirect fire (as seen with the 66th OMBr success) and increasing the visibility of vehicle movements.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Capabilities and Intentions:
Technological Adaptation: The deployment of "Mnogotochie" ammunition suggests Russia is seeking a low-cost, kinetic solution to UAF's FPV drone superiority at the platoon level.
Operational Mobility: The 2,600-vehicle mobilization plan for 2026 indicates the Russian MoD is preparing for a long-duration conflict characterized by high-mobility "motorcycle/buggy" infantry assaults rather than traditional heavy-armor breakthroughs.
Internal Security: The simultaneous arrest of a regional transport minister and a foreign "agent" suggests a heightened counter-intelligence regime, possibly to secure logistics hubs (Krasnodar is a primary transit point for Crimea and Southern Front supplies).
Enemy Course of Action (COA):
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued "probing" infantry assaults in the Pryimorske (Zaporizhzhia) area to force UAF to redeploy reserves from the Donetsk sector.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): Rapid integration of new anti-drone ammunition across all assault groups, significantly degrading UAF’s primary tactical reconnaissance and strike capability (FPV drones) during the next 48-72 hours.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Tactical Posture: UAF mortar units and drone operators continue to demonstrate high proficiency in "strike-on-first-shot" engagements, as evidenced by the 66th OMBr (0648Z).
Morale and Synchronization: National "Minute of Silence" (0900L) observed across all major military and civilian administrative channels (Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, PGO), reinforcing domestic unity amid the heating crisis.
Air Defense: Success in clearing air raid alerts in Zaporizhzhia (0644Z) indicates effective tracking and interception of the morning UAV/missile wave.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Targeted Narratives: Russian media is leveraging Danish diplomatic exclusion (0636Z) to demoralize European allies. Concurrently, they are pushing "Moldovan espionage" stories to justify future hybrid pressure on Chisinau.
Fundraising Dynamics: Pro-Russian channels (Dva Mayora) have shifted to corporate-level fundraising for the Zaporizhzhia front, suggesting local logistical gaps or a lack of standard-issue specialized equipment for units in that sector.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Timeline (Next 6-12h): Expect RUAF to intensify tactical aviation or MLRS strikes near Pryimorske to support the infantry engagements reported by paratroopers.
Timeline (Next 24-48h): Monitoring for "Mnogotochie" ammo effectiveness. If UAF drone loss rates spike in specific sectors, it will confirm the successful wide-scale deployment of this new anti-UAV tool.
Decision Point: UAF Command must determine if the Pryimorske engagement is a diversion or a precursor to a larger Southern offensive.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Technical specs and effective range of "Mnogotochie" ammunition to develop EW or tactical countermeasures.
[HIGH] Confirmation of troop concentrations in the Krasnodar region following the Transport Minister's arrest—determine if logistics are being restructured.
[MEDIUM] Satellite imagery of Pryimorske (Zaporizhzhia) to confirm the scale of the reported Russian airborne engagement.
CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT:
Mnogotochie Ammo Deployment: HIGH (Visual/Manufacturer confirmation)
Pryimorske Engagements: MEDIUM (Single-sided RU paratrooper reports)
RU 2026 Vehicle Plan: MEDIUM (Intelligence leak, pending verification of procurement orders)
Moldovan Agent Claims: LOW (High probability of state-sponsored narrative for hybrid goals)
