CONFIRMED CASUALTIES AT TEMRYUK PORT (2044Z, Operatsiya Z, HIGH): Regional authorities confirm 3 KIA and 8 WIA following the UA drone strike on port terminals in Krasnodar Krai.
BALLISTIC THREAT FROM NORTH (2049Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): High-priority warning issued for potential ballistic missile launches targeting northern and central Ukraine.
BELGOROD ROCKET ATTACK (2044Z, Poddubny, MEDIUM): Incoming rocket fire reported in Belgorod; Russian air defense (AD) systems actively engaged.
SHAHED UAV MANEUVERS TOWARD KHARKIV (2056Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): New wave of loitering munitions detected approaching Kharkiv from the east.
DIPLOMATIC FRICTION: PEACE COUNCIL INVITE (2032Z, TASS/RBC-UA, MEDIUM): Reports indicate US President-elect Trump has invited Vladimir Putin to a "Peace Council," citing a desire for "people with power" to be present.
CIVIL UNREST IN KHMELNYTSKYI (2040Z, RBC-Ukraine, MEDIUM): Protests erupted over sustained power outages; at least one individual detained by authorities.
UNCONFIRMED REPORT: KADYROV STATUS (2041Z, Hayabusa, LOW): Sources hostile to the Chechen regime claim the death of Ramzan Kadyrov. No corroboration from official or high-confidence channels.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment remains highly kinetic, characterized by reciprocal long-range strikes and a widening diplomatic narrative gap. Ukraine is successfully maintaining pressure on Russian maritime logistics in the Krasnodar Krai, while Russia is utilizing a combination of ballistic missiles and Geran-series UAVs to suppress Ukrainian infrastructure and urban centers.
Battlefield Geometry: Russia is attempting to maintain a "northern pressure" axis through ballistic threats from the border regions while simultaneously vectoring UAVs into Kharkiv.
Weather/Environment: A 42-hour major geomagnetic storm (magnetic storm) has concluded (2037Z, TASS). This may lead to improved stability in satellite-based communications and GPS-guided munitions performance over the next 12 hours.
Infrastructure: The Ukrainian power grid remains under extreme stress, evidenced by both kinetic targeting and resulting civil demonstrations in Khmelnytskyi (2040Z).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)
Capabilities and Intentions:
Aerial Interdiction: Russia continues to prioritize Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia for UAV and missile saturation. The launch of Shaheds from the east (2056Z) suggests a multi-vector approach to bypass AD corridors.
Tactical Innovation: Visual evidence confirms RU forces using TM-62 anti-tank mines as improvised air-dropped munitions against UA strongpoints (2033Z), indicating a continued adaptation of low-cost, high-yield tactical strikes.
Information Hybrid Ops: The Kremlin is amplifying the "Greenland Framework" and Trump’s "Peace Council" comments to project an image of inevitable diplomatic realignment, likely aimed at demoralizing UA domestic sentiment.
Course of Action (COA):
MLCOA (Most Likely): Russia will execute the northern ballistic strike within the next 2-4 hours while using the Kharkiv-bound Shaheds to fix AD assets in the east.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A coordinated ballistic strike on Kyiv or the remaining Ukrenergo C2 nodes, synchronized with the current "blackout" propaganda narrative being pushed by RU state-affiliated correspondents (2101Z).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UA)
Force Posture and Readiness:
Strategic Depth Strikes: UA continues to demonstrate the ability to cause lethal effects in the Russian rear (Temryuk), forcing RU to divert AD assets to protect economic infrastructure.
Air Defense Posture: UA AD remains active; however, the "Attention" warning for Zaporizhzhia (2049Z) following a prior "All Clear" (2043Z) indicates a highly fluid and unpredictable air environment.
Internal Security: Maintaining order during power outages (e.g., Khmelnytskyi) is becoming a critical secondary requirement for National Guard and police units to prevent RU "reflexive control" operations from exploiting local grievances.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)
Narrative Manipulation: Russian sources are framing the Greenland deal as evidence of US "colonial" behavior (2041Z, Alex Parker) while simultaneously positioning Putin as a central figure in Trump’s proposed Peace Council.
Internal RU Stability: The unconfirmed rumor regarding Kadyrov (2041Z) is likely a psychological operation (PSYOPS) or a test of internal Russian communication stability following the previously reported Telegram throttling.
Blame Shift: RU military correspondents (Poddubny) are aggressively pushing a narrative that the Zelenskyy administration, rather than RU strikes, is responsible for the current energy crisis (2101Z).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Short-term (Next 6-12h): High probability of kinetic impact in the Kharkiv and Northern UA sectors due to confirmed ballistic threats and UAV ingress. Expect retaliatory Russian strikes in the Sumy or Chernihiv regions in response to the Belgorod rocket fire.
Operational (24-48h): If the Kadyrov rumor gains traction without a "proof of life" rebuttal, expect brief localized instability or increased security measures within the Chechen Rosgvardia units.
Logistical: The fuel terminal damage at Temryuk (3 KIA) will likely result in increased maritime insurance premiums and slower turnarounds for RU tankers in the Sea of Azov, indirectly impacting Southern Grouping fuel supplies.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Corroborate status of Ramzan Kadyrov via SIGINT or independent visual confirmation.
[HIGH] Identify the launch platforms for the current ballistic threat from the north (Iskander-M vs. North Korean KN-23).
[HIGH] Monitor the scale of protests in Western Ukraine (Khmelnytskyi) to determine if RU GRU-linked "bot" networks are actively mobilizing civilian unrest.
[MEDIUM] Assess BDA of the Belgorod strikes; determine if UA is targeting specific military logistics hubs or responding to the Zaporizhzhia strikes.
