LYMAN SECTOR BREAKTHROUGH ATTEMPT (1802Z/1827Z, Rybar/Starshiy Eddy, MEDIUM-HIGH): Russian forces have achieved "significant tactical advances" in the Lyman direction. Maps indicate a coordinated push, though RU sources caution against premature victory claims, suggesting stiff UA resistance or incomplete consolidation of gains.
US DIPLOMATIC SIGNALING (1828Z/1830Z, Tsaplienko/RBK-UA/Operativniy ZSU, HIGH): Gen. Keith Kellogg (ret.) confirmed plans to visit Ukraine within weeks. This is interpreted as a critical engagement point for future UA-US security architecture during the Davos summit.
TACTICAL UGV DEPLOYMENT (1801Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH): Visual confirmation of "NRTC Courier" ground-based unmanned platforms operating in winter conditions. This indicates an escalation in RU's use of autonomous/semi-autonomous systems to mitigate infantry losses in open-field maneuvers.
DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST ENGAGEMENT (1811Z, RVvoenkor, MEDIUM): The Russian "Center" Group claims to have engaged UA forces not just near Pokrovsk, but within the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast borders. [UNCONFIRMED] If ground elements have crossed the oblast line, this represents a significant expansion of the Pokrovsk salient.
CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE FAILURE (1802Z, DTEK/Operativniy ZSU, HIGH): DTEK reports that returning Kyiv to hourly power outage schedules is currently "impossible," indicating severe systemic damage to the grid that precludes predictable load shedding.
ISR ACTIVITY IN KHERSON (1807Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Detection of RU reconnaissance UAVs over Kherson Oblast acting as target spotters; UA assets actively engaged in interception.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational focus has expanded from the Pokrovsk axis to include a major RU push in the Lyman sector. Russia is integrating new technologies (UGVs) and maintaining high-pressure ISR over the southern front (Kherson). Ukraine faces a deepening energy crisis in the capital and must manage a potential expansion of the conflict into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Battlefield Geometry: The Lyman sector has transitioned from a static line to an active maneuver zone. The Pokrovsk salient remains the primary RU effort, now potentially reaching the Dnipropetrovsk administrative border.
Environmental Factors: Deep winter conditions are persistent. Frozen ground supports the use of both heavy armor and the newly identified "Courier" UGVs.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)
Capabilities and Intentions:
Lyman Offensive: RU forces are attempting to collapse the UA defensive line east of the Oskil river. The warning by RU milbloggers (1802Z) against "premature joy" suggests they expect a UA counter-offensive or are struggling with high attrition during the advance.
Tactical Innovation: Deployment of the "Courier" UGV (1801Z) suggests RU is transitioning to "machine-first" scouting or assault roles in high-risk sectors to preserve remaining professional infantry.
Deep Strike/Incursion: Claims of activity in Dnipropetrovsk (1811Z) indicate either long-range FPV saturation or small-unit reconnaissance-sabotage groups (DRGs) probing beyond the Pokrovsk front.
Course of Action (COA):
MLCOA: Continued multi-axis pressure on Lyman to force UA to redeploy reserves away from Pokrovsk.
MDCOA: A rapid mechanized exploitation of the Lyman "advances" to threaten the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration from the north while UA is fixed in Pokrovsk.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UA)
Force Posture and Readiness:
Air Defense: Successfully identified and engaged RU ISR drones in Kherson (1807Z), likely preventing precision strikes on logistics hubs.
Grid Resilience: UA energy technicians are struggling; the inability to maintain a schedule in Kyiv (1802Z) suggests "Ukrenergo" is operating in a state of emergency near-collapse following previous strikes.
Diplomatic Maneuver: The upcoming Kellogg visit (1828Z) serves as a morale booster and a critical window for requesting specific systems (e.g., more "Oreshnik"-equivalent countermeasures).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Cognitive Domain:
RU Internal Focus: State media is pivoting to domestic digital control (1817Z, social media for minors) and economic resilience (1821Z, gold revenues) to distract from the high human cost of the Lyman/Pokrovsk advances.
Dehumanization/Discipline: Reports of RU soldiers abusing animals on drones (1820Z, ASTRA) may be used by UA to highlight deteriorating discipline and morale within RU ranks.
US Relations: UA media is heavily amplifying the Kellogg visit to counter "Davos noise" and fears of US abandonment.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Short-term (Next 6-12h): Expect increased RU missile/drone strikes in the Zaporizhzhia region following the persistent air alerts (1811Z).
Operational (24-72h): High probability of RU attempting to consolidate gains in the Lyman sector. Watch for UA 45th/46th Brigades to potentially counter-attack if the RU salient becomes overextended.
Strategic: The "Dnipropetrovsk" claim will likely be used by RU propaganda to create panic in UA rear areas; monitor for actual physical presence of RU units across the oblast border.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm the exact geographic location of "Center" group operations near/in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Determine if this is artillery/drone reach or physical ground presence.
[HIGH] Assess the combat effectiveness of the "Courier" UGV. Does it possess EW resistance or is it a simple remote-controlled platform?
[MEDIUM] BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) of the Lyman sector. Determine if the "significant advances" claimed by Rybar (1802Z) involve the capture of key heights or transit hubs.
[LOW] Monitor the status of the "Oreshnik" missile system deployment; RU milblogger sarcasm (1806Z) may be masking preparations for a second operational use.
