DIPLOMATIC PIVOT - DAVOS MEETING (1552Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH): President Zelenskyy is confirmed to meet with Donald Trump tomorrow in Davos; Russian sources are already attempting to frame this as a "subordinate" engagement (1537Z, Операция Z).
TACTICAL SUCCESS - KUPYANSK (1531Z, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, HIGH): The 4th Battalion of the "Khartiya" Brigade has successfully completed combat operations in the center of Kupiansk and transitioned to rest/refit.
FORCE MULTIPLIER - SPACE INTEL (1539Z, Поддубный, HIGH): Ukraine is expanding defense cooperation with Finland via ICEYE, providing enhanced SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) satellite reconnaissance capabilities.
RUSSIAN DOMESTIC SECURITY (1601Z, Дневник Десантника, HIGH): A life sentence was handed down to Ahmadzhon Kurbonov for the assassination of General Kirillov (Chief of Russian NBC Protection Troops); Russian milbloggers note the "customers" of the hit remain at large.
CYBER DOMAIN - TELEGRAM THROTTLING (1538Z, Военкор Котенок, HIGH): The Russian Federation Council (Sovfed) has officially confirmed the slowdown of Telegram services, corroborating reports of a controlled digital blackout.
TACTICAL ENGAGEMENT - NOVOPAVLIVKA (1555Z, STERNENKO, MEDIUM): Russian forces launched a high-risk ground assault characterized as "Mad Max style" (improvised/low-tech armor), likely indicating localized equipment shortages or high-attrition tactics.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational focus is split between localized Ukrainian tactical successes in the Kupiansk sector and high-intensity Russian "suicide" assaults in the Novopavlivka direction. In the rear, the Russian government is attempting to project stability through domestic social policy announcements while simultaneously tightening control over the information space (Telegram throttling) and addressing systemic delays in military pay.
Battlefield Geometry: The frontline in Kupiansk center is stable following a successful rotation by the 4th Battalion, "Khartiya" Brigade.
Weather: Extreme cold remains a critical factor; Russian leadership is addressing heating failures (reported earlier) while Ukrainian civilian advice on managing blackouts is being mocked in Russian propaganda (1601Z, Операция Z).
Intelligence Support: The integration of Finnish ICEYE satellite data provides UAF with all-weather, day/night surveillance, countering Russian attempts at deep concealment (e.g., the "dark" 183rd Guards AA Regiment).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)
Capabilities and Intentions:
Assault Tactics: The "Mad Max" style assaults in Novopavlivka (1555Z) suggest the Russian command is prioritizing mass over protection, potentially due to the loss of standard armored vehicles or an attempt to overwhelm Ukrainian lines with cheap, improvised platforms.
Information Control: The confirmation of Telegram slowing (1538Z) by the Russian state indicates a deliberate effort to mask troop movements and suppress "milblogger" reports that contradict the official Ministry of Defense narrative.
Internal Fractures: Reports of systemic abuse and coercion of Russian conscripts (1532Z, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ) and Putin's directive to investigate delayed payments to "SVO" participants (1552Z, ТАСС) indicate significant morale and logistical friction in the Russian rear.
Course of Action (COA):
Russian forces are likely to continue high-attrition assaults in the Novopavlivka and Vovchansk sectors to fix Ukrainian reserves ahead of the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UA)
Force Posture and Readiness:
Kupiansk Resilience: The "Khartiya" Brigade’s ability to rotate units after clearing/holding the town center (1531Z) indicates effective localized command and control and maintained combat effectiveness.
Technical Advantage: Enhanced SAR satellite access via ICEYE (1539Z) allows for precise monitoring of Russian mobilization hubs like Kursk Vostochny, even through heavy cloud cover or smoke.
Economic Stability: The NBU has slightly adjusted the Euro rate (1538Z), maintaining manageable currency volatility despite the ongoing energy crisis.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Cognitive Domain:
Davos Narrative: Russian channels are aggressively using Trump’s comments on Greenland and the "peace deal" (1600Z, Alex Parker) to portray Ukraine as a secondary actor in its own security negotiations.
Propaganda Themes: Russian state media (TASS) is pivoting toward "paternalistic" content, showing Putin resolving minor business issues (1538Z) and supporting families to mask the 5.6% inflation rate and heating crises.
Hybrid Suppression: The labeling of Chechen opposition channel "NIYSO" as extremist (1551Z) follows their reporting on an accident involving Adam Kadyrov, showing the sensitivity of the Kadyrov regime to independent information.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA):
Russian forces will sustain pressure on the Vovchansk-Novopavlivka axis using "disposable" assault groups to generate minor territorial gains for use as diplomatic leverage during the Davos summit.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA):
Utilizing the Telegram blackout to mask a significant redeployment of the 183rd Guards AA Regiment and associated strike assets for a high-intensity missile/UAV barrage targeting Kyiv or Davos-related transit hubs within the next 24 hours.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm the current location of the 183rd Guards AA Regiment (last seen "dark" in previous reports); assess if ICEYE data has identified new concealment sites.
[HIGH] Monitor Novopavlivka for the appearance of North Korean 107mm MLRS (reported in previous 24h) to confirm the integration of NK assets into Russian "Mad Max" assault groups.
[MEDIUM] Evaluate the impact of the General Kirillov assassination sentencing on the morale of the Russian NBC Protection Troops (RKhBZ).
[LOW] Track the movement of Russian conscript units reportedly being coerced into "volunteer" contracts to identify potential replenishment for the Vovchansk axis.
