DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENT (1102Z, TASS/CNBC, HIGH): Kremlin confirms Vladimir Putin will meet US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff in Moscow tomorrow, Jan 22. Witkoff claims a 20-point peace plan is "90% complete," with only territorial status remaining.
CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE STATUS - KYIV (1128Z, Zelenskyy/RBC-UA, HIGH): President Zelenskyy reports 60% of Kyiv is currently without electricity and 4,000 buildings are without heat following sustained strikes.
TACTICAL INNOVATION - LYMAN SECTOR (1106Z, Butusov Plus, HIGH): UA 53rd Mechanized Brigade (SIGNUM Battalion) is confirmed using fiber-optic FPV drones to successfully interdict Russian assault groups in forest terrain.
ANTI-CORRUPTION ACTION (1128Z, Sternenko/NABU, HIGH): Former Deputy Head of the Office of the President, Rostyslav Shurma, has been served a notice of suspicion regarding embezzlement related to "green energy" tariffs in occupied Zaporizhzhia.
AIR THREAT - CRIMEA (1130Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH): Air raid sirens active in occupied Sevastopol; high probability of UA long-range strike attempt.
RUSSIAN DOMESTIC MILITARIZATION (1115Z, ASTRA/TASS, HIGH): Novosibirsk Oblast has formally authorized "Special Military Operation" (SVO) veterans to teach in schools; concurrent with mandatory drone assembly training for schoolchildren.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment has shifted from a focus on Kharkiv to the capital, Kyiv, where energy and heating systems are reaching a breaking point. Simultaneously, a high-stakes diplomatic track is emerging as the US envoy prepares for direct talks with Putin.
Battlefield Geometry: Stabilized in the north, but high-intensity FPV operations are defining the Lyman/Donetsk sector.
Weather/Environmental: Deep sub-zero temperatures are turning the 60% power loss in Kyiv into a life-safety crisis.
Control Measures: UA continues to purge internal corruption (Shurma case) to maintain Western confidence during delicate negotiations.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities and Intentions:
Negotiation Leverage: The Kremlin is using the Witkoff visit to isolate Kyiv’s position. By framing the peace plan as "90% complete" while refusing to condemn infrastructure strikes (1104Z), Moscow is signaling that the "city-kill" strategy will continue until territorial concessions are codified.
Long-term Manpower/Tech: The integration of veterans into schools and the mandatory drone assembly curriculum (1109Z, 1115Z) indicates the RF is preparing for a multi-year/generational conflict regardless of current peace talks.
Tactical Changes:
Adygea Strike (1120Z): Confirmed impact on Russian soil (Adygea), showing RU air defense gaps in the southern rear.
Logistics Under Strain: Corruption arrests of transport officials in Krasnodar (1125Z) and infrastructure failures in Novosibirsk suggest internal RU governance is fraying under wartime pressures.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UA)
Ukrainian Force Posture:
Lyman Sector: The 53rd Mechanized Brigade’s deployment of fiber-optic drones represents a significant technological advantage, as these systems are immune to Russian electronic warfare (EW). This is effectively stalling RU forest-based infiltrations.
Infrastructure Resilience: UA is struggling to manage the grid; the death of a municipal worker in Kyiv (1122Z) highlights the extreme risks faced by repair crews operating under constant threat and sub-zero conditions.
Internal Security: The NABU/SAP action against Shurma (1128Z) is a strategic move to demonstrate transparency, likely aimed at countering the "corruption" narrative used by some US factions to justify reducing aid.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Hybrid Operations:
"The Times" Disinformation (1110Z): Pro-Russian channels are disseminating forged Western media content to mock UA leadership at Davos.
Negotiation Framing: Witkoff’s public accusation that Kyiv is "downplaying progress" (1105Z) is a targeted psychological operation designed to create friction between the Ukrainian government and the new US administration.
Refugee Narratives: RU proxies are amplifying reports from Norwegian media (Aftenposten) regarding UA refugees’ reluctance to return, aiming to demoralize the domestic UA population and signal a permanent demographic loss.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA):
A 24-hour "diplomatic lull" in massive missile strikes may occur tomorrow during the Witkoff-Putin meeting, though localized drone strikes on the grid (specifically Chernihiv and Kyiv) will continue to maintain pressure.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA):
Upon any perceived breakdown in the Moscow talks tomorrow, the RF may execute a "demonstration strike" using high-yield conventional assets against Kyiv’s remaining thermal power plants to force immediate capitulation on territorial terms.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Monitor the specific 20 points of the Witkoff plan; identify the exact borders of "territories" being debated (1991 vs. 2022 vs. current FLOT).
[HIGH] Assess the impact of the fiber-optic FPVs in the Lyman sector on RU armor concentrations; determine if RU has developed a counter-measure (e.g., physical wire-cutting drones).
[HIGH] Track the Sevastopol air raid results to identify if high-value Black Sea Fleet assets or command nodes were targeted.
[MEDIUM] Investigate the extent of the "green energy" embezzlement scheme to see if it impacted current power generation capabilities in the Zaporizhzhia buffer zone.
