DEEP STRIKE - AFIPSKY REFINERY (2224Z, ASTRA, HIGH): Confirmed Ukrainian long-range UAV strike against the Afipsky Oil Refinery in Krasnodar Krai. Regional operational headquarters confirms the attack.
AERIAL THREAT - KHARKIV (2218Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH): New wave of Russian loitering munitions (Shahed-type) detected moving toward Kharkiv and Staryi Saltiv.
CONTRADICTORY REPORTS - ADYGEA INCIDENT (2226Z-2229Z, TASS/ASTRA, LOW): Russian authorities report 8 civilian casualties from a "Ukrainian UAV" strike on a multi-unit residential building in Adygea. Independent sources (ASTRA) claim visual evidence suggests the building was struck by a malfunctioning Russian anti-air missile rather than a drone. UNCONFIRMED.
PSYCHOLOGICAL OPERATIONS (2205Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH): Russian mil-bloggers are disseminating graphic FPV drone footage of the execution of a wounded Ukrainian soldier, likely intended to demoralize UA frontline personnel and counter recent Ukrainian deep-strike successes.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The operational focus has shifted to a dual-track engagement: high-intensity Russian UAV pressure on Kharkiv and Ukrainian strategic deep strikes against Russian energy infrastructure in the Krasnodar/Adygea region.
Battlefield Geometry: Ukraine is successfully bypassing Russian border air defenses to strike strategic targets (Afipsky Refinery) deep within the Russian Federation (Southern Military District).
Weather: Sub-zero temperatures continue to dominate; the previously reported freezing of the Dnipro remains a critical tactical factor for the Kherson sector, though the last hour focused on aerial/strategic exchanges.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Capabilities and Intentions:
Air Defense Failure: The successful strike on the Afipsky Refinery (2224Z) following previous strikes in the region suggests a saturation of Russian Air Defense (AD) or a persistent "gap" in the coverage of the 183rd Guards Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment, despite their high activity levels noted in the daily report.
Maneuver Adaptation: Russia is maintaining its "city-kill" pressure by shifting UAV focus from Sumy (last sitrep) to Kharkiv (2218Z), suggesting a rotating targeting cycle designed to exhaust localized UA mobile fire groups.
Logistics and Sustainment:
Refinery Attrition: The strike on Afipsky directly impacts the logistics of the Southern Military District, as this refinery is a primary fuel source for Russian operations in southern Ukraine and the Black Sea Fleet.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Posture and Readiness:
Strategic Reach: Ukrainian long-range UAV units demonstrate high operational tempo, successfully coordinating strikes across multiple Russian administrative regions (Adygea/Krasnodar) within a narrow window.
Air Defense: AFU Air Force remains highly responsive to ingress, providing early warning for Kharkiv and Staryi Saltiv (2218Z).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Propaganda and Cognitive Ops:
The "Adygea Narrative": A significant information battle is occurring regarding the damage to residential infrastructure in Adygea. Russian state media (TASS) is framing it as a deliberate Ukrainian "terrorist attack" on civilians (2217Z, 2226Z). Conversely, independent monitoring (ASTRA) suggests a kinetic failure of Russian AD (friendly fire/missile malfunction) (2229Z).
Demoralization Tactics: The release of graphic execution footage (2205Z) indicates a coordinated effort to increase the psychological cost of the war for Ukrainian defenders.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA):
Russian forces will continue the UAV saturation of Kharkiv over the next 6 hours while intensifying domestic propaganda to frame Ukrainian deep strikes as war crimes to consolidate domestic support in the Krasnodar region.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA):
If the "unusual tactical activity" near Pokrovsk (identified in the previous sitrep) is confirmed as a new offensive axis, Russia may attempt a breakthrough while Ukrainian attention is diverted to the humanitarian crisis in the North (Chernihiv blackout) and the new UAV threats in Kharkiv.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Geospatial/Video analysis of the Adygea residential strike to confirm the weapon type (UAV vs. SAM) and flight path.
[HIGH] Assessment of the damage level at Afipsky Refinery; specifically, whether atmospheric distillation units (CDUs) were neutralized.
[MEDIUM] Monitor Russian AD repositioning from the Baltic/Rear (Donskoye/183rd Regiment) toward the Southern Military District following the Krasnodar strikes.
[LOW] Identification of the Russian unit responsible for the graphic footage dissemination for potential war crimes documentation.
