CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE COLLAPSE - KYIV (1547Z, TASS/Strana, HIGH): Reports indicate over 75% of Kyiv is without electricity following sustained strikes. Blackouts are confirmed across all city districts, including the Verkhovna Rada (Parliament) (1555Z, ASTRA, HIGH).
CHORNOBYL NPP STABILIZATION (1548Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): Power has been officially restored to the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant (CNPP) following the earlier disconnection caused by Russian kinetic activity.
OFFENSIVE MANEUVER - KHARKIV/BURLUK (1540Z, Rybar, LOW): Russian "Sever" Group of Forces has reportedly initiated a localized offensive toward the Volchya River in the Burluk direction. UNCONFIRMED by Ukrainian official sources.
KAB STRIKE ALERTS - DONETSK (1600Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Tactical aviation has launched guided aerial bombs (KABs) targeting Ukrainian positions in the Donetsk region.
TACTICAL SUCCESS - SUMY SECTOR (1541Z, Sternenko, MEDIUM): PERUN Industries operators confirmed the destruction of two Russian Ural trucks, a light vehicle, and multiple ATVs in the Sumy region.
BELARUSIAN HYBRID DIPLOMACY (1535Z, ASTRA/TASS, MEDIUM): Lukashenko signed documents joining a purported "Peace Council" allegedly linked to the Trump administration. Lukashenko publicly denied reports of a $1 billion entry fee (1553Z, TASS).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Kyiv/Chernihiv/Sumy): The "city-kill" strategy has reached a critical threshold in Kyiv, with 75% of the capital de-energized (1547Z). However, tactical attrition remains effective in the Sumy sector, where UAF drone units (PERUN) are successfully interdicting Russian logistics and small-unit mobility (1541Z).
Eastern Axis (Kharkiv/Donbas):
Kharkiv: Russian sources claim a new push toward the Volchya River (1540Z). If verified, this represents an expansion of the buffer zone operations.
Donetsk: Heavy reliance on KAB strikes (1600Z) continues to be the primary Russian method for suppressing UAF defenses. Intelligence from the 5th Special Operations Unit "OMEGA" indicates that Russian reconnaissance elements in Donetsk forest strips are operating with significant equipment deficits—lacking helmets, body armor, and basic sustainment (1546Z).
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Orikhiv): No significant changes since 1530Z. Risk of envelopment at Pavlovka remains a priority monitoring requirement.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Logistics & Sustainment: While Russia maintains high-end kinetic capabilities (KABs/Ballistics), tactical-level logistics appear strained. The "OMEGA" unit footage (1546Z) showing unequipped Russian scouts suggests either a high burn rate of "disposable" infantry or localized supply chain failures in the Donetsk sector.
Course of Action: The "Sever" Group's push toward Volchya (1540Z) indicates an attempt to exploit the current infrastructure-driven distraction in Kyiv to seize tactical high ground or river crossings in the Kharkiv region.
C2 and Capability: Russia is successfully synchronizing diplomatic "noise" (Lukashenko's "Peace Council") with kinetic pressure to create a sense of Ukrainian isolation.
Friendly forces (Blue force tracking)
Force Readiness: Ukrainian SOF (OMEGA) and specialized drone units (PERUN) demonstrate high proficiency in asymmetric attrition, even as the strategic rear (Kyiv) suffers significant infrastructure degradation.
Grid Resilience: The successful re-energizing of the CNPP (1548Z) showcases the high technical readiness of Ukrainian engineering units under fire.
Counter-UAS: The UAF General Staff has released footage of successful UAV intercepts, confirming active and effective air defense against Russian tactical reconnaissance (1547Z).
Information environment (Cognitive domain)
The "Peace Council" Narrative: Russia/Belarus are aggressively pushing the "Peace Council" narrative (1535Z, 1544Z) to coincide with the WEF in Davos. This appears to be a hybrid operation aimed at delegitimizing current diplomatic efforts (Macron's G7 summit) by suggesting a "backchannel" deal involving the US and Belarus.
Economic Pressure: The record Euro exchange rate (1533Z) is being amplified in the information space to increase domestic anxiety alongside the blackouts.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued KAB saturation in Donetsk to support localized infantry pushes. Increased drone/missile activity targeting the remaining 25% of Kyiv’s power grid to achieve a total blackout.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A confirmed Russian breakthrough at the Volchya River (Kharkiv) that threatens to outflank Ukrainian defensive nodes currently focused on the Burluk direction.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm the extent of the Russian "Sever" Group's advance toward Volchya. Identify if this is a reconnaissance-in-force or a sustained offensive.
[HIGH] Assess the operational status of the Verkhovna Rada and government C2 nodes following the Kyiv blackout.
[MEDIUM] Investigate the legitimacy and funding of the "Peace Council" to determine if it is a purely psychological operation or has material diplomatic backing.
