RESUMPTION OF BALLISTIC THREAT (1422Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): A new threat of ballistic missile employment from the northeast has been declared, triggering air alerts in Kyiv (1423Z) and Zaporizhzhia (1423Z).
DEEP STRIKE - OCCUPIED LUHANSK (1437Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH): Visual evidence confirms a significant strike on a target in occupied Luhansk Oblast, resulting in a large fire.
UAV MANEUVERS - CENTRAL UKRAINE (1421Z-1431Z, UAF Air Force, MEDIUM): Shahed-type UAVs are currently transiting Kyiv Oblast (toward Uzin/Kaharlyk) and entering Kryvyi Rih airspace from the Kirovohrad direction.
CONTESTED CLAIM - NOVOPLATONIVKA (1411Z, Tsaplienko/Propaganda, LOW): Russian sources claim the capture of Novoplatonivka (Kharkiv region); however, Ukrainian sources categorize this as unconfirmed propaganda (UNCONFIRMED).
INTERNAL SECURITY - DNIPRO (1435Z, ASTRA, HIGH): Searches were conducted by law enforcement at the Dnipro City Council; Mayor Filatov has reportedly provided context on the ongoing investigative actions.
TACTICAL RECOISSANCE - DONETSK (1418Z, Kadyrov_95, LOW): Elements of the 78th Motorized Rifle Regiment ("Sever-Akhmat") claim to have neutralized a UAF reconnaissance group near Kostiantynivka (Donetsk axis).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Operational Picture)
The operational pause noted in the 1410Z sitrep has ended. Russian forces have resumed aero-ballistic pressure against the capital and southern hubs. Concurrently, Ukrainian long-range assets remain active, successfully targeting Russian rear logistics or C2 nodes in the Luhansk sector. The frontline in the Kharkiv sector (Novoplatonivka) is under increased information pressure, suggesting a potential Russian localized push or a coordinated "fog of war" campaign.
Kyiv/Northern Axis: Re-entered a state of high alert at 1423Z due to ballistic threats from the NE. UAVs are utilizing southern corridors through Kyiv Oblast to bypass primary AD screens.
Donbas/Eastern Axis: High symbolic value today as UAF commemorates the Day of Remembrance for the Defenders of Donetsk Airport (1409Z). Kinetically, Russian Spetsnaz/Akhmat units are active in the Kostiantynivka sector, attempting to disrupt UAF local rotations.
Southern/Central Axis: Kryvyi Rih is currently under UAV threat. Logistics remain a focus, with the UAF "SAPSAN" battalion receiving new mobility assets (pickups) via volunteer funding (1437Z).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Ballistic Posture: The rapid resumption of ballistic threats suggests Russia is utilizing "pulsed" strikes—periodically clearing and then re-initiating threats to stress AD crews and keep civilian populations in shelters, hindering economic activity.
Information Warfare Adaptation: There is a synchronized effort to exploit Western political friction. Russian channels are heavily amplifying Danish MEP Anders Vistisen’s profanity-laden rejection of US interests in Greenland (1409Z, 1435Z) to project an image of a fractured NATO/EU (MEDIUM confidence).
Social/Legal Measures: Within the RF, "United Russia" is pushing legislation for job guarantees for "SVO" participants (1434Z), indicating an ongoing effort to maintain domestic support for the war through socio-economic incentives for the veteran class.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Air Defense (AD): Units are currently engaged in tracking and intercepting multiple UAV vectors across central Ukraine.
Rear Operations: UAF continues to demonstrate "deep reach" capabilities with the successful hit in Luhansk.
Force Sustainment: Despite central government investigative pressure in some municipalities (Dnipro), grassroots logistical support (e.g., Nikolaevsky Vanek’s vehicle drives) continues to provide essential tactical mobility (pickups) directly to front-line battalions.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Internal Political Friction: Russian sources (RVvoenkor, 1421Z) are actively promoting claims by Yulia Tymoshenko that she is being "sidelined" as an opposition leader, likely to fuel narratives of domestic political instability in Kyiv.
Decontextualization: Russian state media (TASS, 1432Z) is weaponizing motivational quotes from IMF head Kristalina Georgieva, framing them as patronizing or ridiculous to erode Ukrainian public confidence in international institutional support.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): A mixed-load strike (UAV + Ballistic) occurring within the next 4 hours targeting energy or command nodes in the Kyiv/Zaporizhzhia/Kryvyi Rih triangle to maximize the impact of the current cold front.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A confirmed Russian breakthrough at Novoplatonivka leading to a flanking maneuver toward the Oskil River, complicating the defense of the Kharkiv sector.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
[HIGH] Confirm BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) of the Luhansk strike. Identify if the target was ammunition storage or a localized C2 hub.
[MEDIUM] Verify the status of Novoplatonivka (Kharkiv). Determine if Russian claims of capture are backed by territorial gains or are purely psychological.
[MEDIUM] Monitor the impact of the Dnipro City Council searches on local defense procurement or logistical support for units in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
