RENEWED AERIAL ASSAULT - KYIV (1309Z-1338Z, UAF/KMVA, HIGH): Multiple waves of UAVs (Shahed/Geran) and reconnaissance drones are currently targeting the capital and its outskirts (Obukhiv). This is the third alert in three hours.
BALLISTIC IMPACT - MYKOLAIV/LYMANY (1323Z-1327Z, UAF/Nikolaevsky Vanyok, HIGH): A high-speed ballistic target transited Kherson airspace and struck the Lymany/Kozyrka area. A Russian reconnaissance UAV was detected over the impact site immediately after to conduct Battle Damage Assessment (BDA).
DEVELOPING TECHNOLOGY - MICROWAVE DEW (1310Z, Brave1/Tsaplienko, MEDIUM): Ukraine is reportedly testing domestic microwave directed-energy weapons (DEW) designed to neutralize Russian loitering munitions via electronic disruption.
UTILITY CRISIS - KYIV INFRASTRUCTURE (1336Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): A significant water supply failure is affecting Kyiv's Left Bank amidst sub-zero temperatures; restoration is expected by end-of-day.
TACTICAL STRIKES - DONETSK SECTOR (1319Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Russian 57th Spetsnaz units claim to have destroyed Ukrainian drone launch points and temporary deployment areas (PVD) in Novopavlovka, Torske, and Pavlovka.
POLITICAL REPRESSION - ST. PETERSBURG (1336Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH): A 17-year-old Russian citizen (Eva Bagrova) was sentenced to 4 years in a penal colony for displaying RDK-affiliated imagery, indicating intensified domestic crackdowns on pro-Ukrainian sentiment.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Axis (Kyiv/Kharkiv)
Kyiv: Under persistent UAV pressure. Air defense (AD) has successfully intercepted at least one "Geran" unit (1326Z). Russian tactics involve using reconnaissance UAVs to orbit the capital, likely identifying AD positions for subsequent missile or "Shahed" waves.
Infrastructure: The water outage on the Left Bank (1336Z) confirms that even without direct kinetic hits reported this hour, the cumulative stress on municipal systems is significant.
2. Eastern Axis (Donbas/Slovyansk)
Slovyansk Direction: UAF "Apachi" units are maintaining defensive positions using FPV drones, claiming strikes on Russian tanks and infantry (1339Z).
Donetsk Sector: Russian Spetsnaz are prioritizing the "hunt" for UAF drone operators, targeting Novopavlovka and Pavlovka to degrade Ukrainian tactical ISR and strike capabilities (1319Z).
3. Southern Axis (Mykolaiv/Kherson)
Ballistic Threat: The strike near Lymany (1327Z) demonstrates Russia's ability to maintain a compressed "sensor-to-shooter" loop, with a "reconnaissance-strike complex" (RSC) active over the Mykolaiv region.
HIMARS Hunting (Update): No new corroboration of the "Rubikon" unit’s HIMARS destruction claims from the previous sitrep; remains UNCONFIRMED/LOW CONFIDENCE.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptation: The deployment of reconnaissance UAVs immediately following ballistic impacts in the south suggests a refined BDA process, allowing Russian forces to adjust fire in near-real-time.
Strategic Messaging: Russian state media (TASS/Kotsnews) is pivoting toward Arctic/Geopolitical friction (Greenland/Northern Sea Route) to distract from frontline attrition and frame the conflict as a broader confrontation with the U.S.
Domestic Security: The sentencing of individuals for the attempted assassination of ex-SBU employee Prozorov (26 years) and the Bagrova case (1331Z, 1336Z) indicates a "zero-tolerance" policy for internal dissent or Ukrainian intelligence operations within Russia.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Technological Innovation: Testing microwave DEW (1310Z) is a critical response to the Russian "Orlan-31/echeloned EW" reported earlier. If successful, this provides a non-kinetic, renewable method for clearing "Shahed" corridors.
Legal/Justice: The in-absentia sentencing of Viktor Yanukovych (1314Z) continues the Ukrainian effort to establish legal accountability for historical state-level corruption and collaboration.
Information environment / disinformation
Energy Collapse Narrative: Pro-RU channels (RV Voenkor) are aggressively promoting "energy collapse" in Kyiv and Kharkiv (1312Z). While infrastructure is stressed, "collapse" is currently an exaggeration used for psychological pressure.
Strategic Wedges: Russian media is amplifying Pres. Zelensky's disagreement with U.S. political figures (Trump) regarding Greenland (1312Z, 1318Z). The goal is to project a narrative of fading Ukrainian-U.S. alignment.
Western Panic: RU sources are weaponizing Norwegian civil defense campaigns to portray European populations as being in a state of "hysteria" (1329Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued UAV "probing" of Kyiv's air defense throughout the evening; sporadic ballistic or cruise missile strikes in the Mykolaiv/Odesa corridor.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A multi-vector strike (UAV + Ballistic) on Kyiv’s energy/water hubs during peak sub-zero evening hours to maximize civilian distress and trigger a systemic utility failure.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm the exact target of the ballistic strike near Lymany/Kozyrka. Assess if Russian "recon-strike" capabilities are being directed by a new variant of Orlan or satellite-based ISR.
[HIGH] Monitor the effectiveness of UAF microwave DEW testing. Data required on effective range and target-locking capabilities against massed "Shahed" swarms.
[MEDIUM] Investigate the status of energy/water repairs in Kyiv's Left Bank to determine if the outage was caused by clandestine sabotage or cumulative grid fatigue.
