INFRASTRUCTURE IMPACT - RIVNE OBLAST (0711Z-0714Z, OVA/RBC-UA, HIGH): Over 10,000 subscribers de-energized following a strike on critical infrastructure. This follows previous reporting of aerial mining in the region, suggesting a sustained campaign against Western Ukrainian logistics/nodes.
AERIAL THREAT - SUMY OBLAST (0718Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has launched Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) against targets in Sumy Oblast.
KINETIC ENGAGEMENT - ZAPORIZHZHIA AXIS (0721Z-0730Z, Colonelcassad/Voin DV, MEDIUM): Russian "Viking Detachment" confirmed the destruction of a UAF BMP; 305th Artillery Brigade (5th Army) is conducting precision fire missions in support of infantry.
INTERNAL SECURITY - STAVROPOL/KISLOVODSK (0713Z-0729Z, ASTRA/TASS, HIGH): FSB lethally neutralized a suspect in Kislovodsk allegedly linked to a December 2025 plot against military targets.
ENERGY CRISIS - OCCUPIED DONETSK (0733Z, Mash na Donbasse, MEDIUM): Widespread power outages and voltage instability reported in Donetsk city, likely due to grid overstrain or collateral damage from regional strikes.
STRATEGIC LOGISTICS - ROMANIA/MOLDOVA (0720Z, Dva Mayora, HIGH): Romania has reportedly acquired the Moldovan port of Giurgiulești on the Danube, a move with significant implications for Black Sea/Danube grain and fuel logistics.
DISINFORMATION ALERT - BULGARIA (0728Z, Tsapliienko, HIGH): Reports of Bulgarian President Rumen Radev’s resignation are confirmed as FALSE; this appears to be a coordinated information operation intended to destabilize NATO-aligned political structures.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo is increasingly focused on the systematic degradation of Ukrainian energy and logistical infrastructure in the "deep rear" (Rivne, Zhytomyr), complemented by high-intensity tactical aviation strikes (KABs) in the northern border regions.
Battlefield Geometry: The FLOT remains largely static, with high-intensity attrition focused in the Zaporizhzhia and Kupyansk sectors. The threat to Western Ukrainian energy nodes is increasing.
Environmental Factors: Continued severe cold persists. The de-energization of 10,000+ subscribers in Rivne (0711Z) significantly increases the risk of localized humanitarian distress and freezing of municipal water systems.
Logistics: The acquisition of the Giurgiulești port by Romania (0720Z) provides a more secure, NATO-aligned transshipment point for Ukrainian exports/imports, potentially mitigating some of the pressure on Odesa's ports.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Tactical Courses of Action:
Northern Sector: Russia is utilizing tactical aviation (Su-34/35) to deploy KABs in Sumy (0718Z). This allows for stand-off strikes that bypass short-range AD.
Central Sector: A loitering munition (Shahed) is currently transiting toward Zhytomyr from the north (0729Z), indicating a persistent attempt to find gaps in the central AD umbrella.
Zaporizhzhia: Increased use of precision-guided artillery (Krasnopol/UAS) by the 305th Brigade suggests a shift toward high-efficiency attrition of UAF armored assets (0730Z).
Hybrid Operations: Pro-Russian sources (TASS/Kimakovsky, 0711Z) claim UAF has mined the St. John the Theologian Convent in Ternovate. ASSESSMENT: This is likely a pre-emptive "false flag" narrative or reflexive control intended to justify future strikes on religious sites or to frame UAF for war crimes. UNCONFIRMED/LOW CONFIDENCE.
Internal Security: The lethal FSB operation in Stavropol (0729Z) confirms Russian focus on neutralizing internal sabotage cells before they can strike military mobilization or logistics centers.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Posture: UAF Air Defense remains active across the Northern and Western sectors. Tracking of the Zhytomyr-bound UAV is ongoing.
Resource Status: Energy infrastructure in Rivne is currently a priority for repair; however, the impact of 10,000+ de-energized subscribers will divert local Civil-Military Cooperation (CIMIC) resources to emergency heating and water distribution.
Morale: Jan 20 marks the "Day of Remembrance for the Defenders of Donetsk Airport" (0710Z, Vilkul). This is being used as a strategic narrative to reinforce national resilience during the current infrastructure campaign.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Regional Instability Ops: The false report of President Radev’s resignation in Bulgaria (0728Z) highlights a concerted effort to project a narrative of crumbling European support for Ukraine.
Transatlantic Friction: Russian channels (Operatsiya Z, 0719Z) are aggressively amplifying Donald Trump’s threats of 200% tariffs on French champagne. The intent is to highlight G7 fragmentation and undermine the proposed "Peace Council" on Gaza/Ukraine.
Illegal Markets: An uptick in advertisements for illegal weapons on Telegram (0724Z) suggests an attempt to foster domestic instability and criminalize the information space.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued KAB strikes in Sumy and Kharkiv regions over the next 12 hours. Shahed UAVs will continue to target energy infrastructure in Zhytomyr and Rivne to exploit the current power deficits.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated strike on the newly de-energized Rivne nodes while repair crews are on-site ("double-tap"), aiming to permanently disable the regional rail-logistics link to the Polish border.
Timeline:
0800Z-1200Z: Expected BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) of the Rivne strike via Russian satellite or long-range UAV.
1200Z-1800Z: Potential for a second wave of KAB strikes in the Sumy sector as tactical aviation cycles.
Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements
[HIGH] Identify the specific nature of the Rivne infrastructure damage (Substation vs. Generation). Determine if this strike involved the aerial-dropped PTM-3 mines previously reported in the region.
[MEDIUM] Monitor Bulgarian official channels for a formal rebuttal of the Radev resignation rumor to neutralize the disinformation.
[MEDIUM] Assess the status of UAF armor in the Zaporizhzhia sector following the "Viking Detachment" and 305th Brigade reports.
[LOW] Confirm the current operational status of the Giurgiulești port and its immediate capacity for diverted Ukrainian cargo.
