CRUISE MISSILE THREAT TERMINATION (0509Z, Vanyok, HIGH): All cruise missiles previously transiting Central and Western Ukraine are reported as "minus" (intercepted or neutralized). The maneuvering wave included paths through Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, and Vinnytsia.
TACTICAL AVIATION SURGE - ZAPORIZHZHIA (0500Z, Voin DV, MEDIUM): Bomber aviation of the Russian 11th Guards Army is conducting heavy strikes on UAF positions in the Verkhnya Tersa and Vozdvyzhivka sectors.
MARITIME UAV NEUTRALIZATION (0445Z-0508Z, Vanyok, HIGH): The swarm of Shahed-type UAVs launched from the Black Sea has been largely defeated; only two remained near Sergeevka at 0454Z before further interceptions.
PERSISTENT REAR THREAT - RIVNE (0448Z-0508Z, PS ZSU, HIGH): A lone Shahed UAV is actively maneuvering near Kostopil and Rivne, likely continuing the "aerial mining" mission against rail infrastructure.
ATTRITION SPIKE (0445Z, GS AFU, HIGH): Ukraine reports 1,130 Russian personnel KIA and the destruction of 60 artillery systems in the last 24-hour cycle.
TERRITORIAL GAIN - KOSTIANTYNIVKA SECTOR (0501Z, Rybar, MEDIUM): Russian forces have reportedly captured Mayske and Novomarkovo as part of a flanking maneuver toward Kostiantynivka.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The massive missile and UAV wave reported in the 0440Z Sitrep has entered a terminal phase. The enemy utilized complex, looping flight paths—moving from the Kyiv Reservoir through Cherkasy and Vinnytsia before turning back toward the Bila Tserkva/Kyiv region—to stress and map Ukrainian Integrated Air Defense Systems (IADS).
Battlefield Geometry: The focus remains on "logistical strangulation" in the West (Rivne) and "tactical suppression" in the South (Zaporizhzhia).
Weather: Pre-dawn conditions continue to favor UAV low-altitude penetration, though interception rates for maritime-launched units were high.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Capabilities & Intentions: The Russian Air Force is demonstrating high coordination between strategic cruise missile maneuver and tactical bombing. The 11th Guards Army's activity in Zaporizhzhia suggests a localized attempt to degrade the UAF's second line of defense while primary attention is diverted to the national-level missile threat.
Course of Action (COA) Update: The reported capture of Mayske and Novomarkovo (0501Z) confirms a systematic effort to isolate Kostiantynivka by seizing high ground and flanking settlements. This aligns with the broader objective of severing logistics between Pokrovsk and the Kramatorsk agglomeration.
Logistics & Sustainment: Despite the offensive, the loss of 60 artillery systems in 24 hours (0445Z) indicates a high rate of Ukrainian counter-battery success, which may force Russian units to rely more heavily on glide bombs (KABs) and aviation in the 6-12h window.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Posture: Ukrainian AD units successfully managed a multi-vector attack, shifting focus from Odesa (maritime) to Central Ukraine (missile maneuver) and now to the Western rail hubs (Rivne).
Tactical Successes: High interception rates against the maritime Shahed swarm (0445Z, 0508Z) have preserved port infrastructure from the most recent wave.
Resource Constraints: The persistence of the Rivne UAV (0508Z) indicates the difficulty of covering wide-area rail infrastructure in the deep rear against low-altitude "aerial mining" tactics.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Diplomatic Disruption: Russian state media (TASS) is amplifying reports that Donald Trump will not meet President Zelensky at Davos while inviting Vladimir Putin to a "Peace Council" on Gaza (0441Z, 0450Z). This is a coordinated effort to project Ukrainian diplomatic isolation.
Loss Narrative: Pro-Russian sources (Colonelcassad) are attempting to counter the high Russian attrition reports by circulating "WarTears" data alleging massive UAF losses (0501Z). This is assessed as a standard domestic morale management tactic.
Social Engineering: Reports of 329 private Russian clinics refusing abortion services (0502Z) suggest an intensifying domestic policy focus on demographic stability to support long-term mobilization requirements.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Following the missile wave, Russian forces will deploy Orlan-10/30 reconnaissance UAVs to conduct Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) over Kyiv and Odesa. Tactical aviation will continue to strike the Verkhnya Tersa-Vozdvyzhivka line to prevent UAF reinforcements from moving North.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A sudden concentration of the 150th MSD (from previous report) against the Dobropillya axis, timed with the temporary disruption of local C2 due to Kyiv's electricity/water outages.
Timeline: 0700Z-1000Z: Peak window for Russian tactical aviation strikes in the East as visibility improves.
Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm the status of the "aerial mining" near Kostopil/Rivne; identify if PTM-3 mines were successfully deployed on the rail bed during the 0500Z UAV transit.
[HIGH] Assess the impact of the 11th Guards Army strikes on UAF defensive geometry in Zaporizhzhia.
[MEDIUM] Monitor for any shift in RU strategic aviation posture (reload activity) at Engels-2 following the 0509Z missile "minus."
