SECONDARY BALLISTIC WAVE ON KYIV (0015Z-0030Z, AF ZSU / Николаевский Ванёк, HIGH): A second, distinct wave of ballistic missiles launched from the Bryansk (RF) direction targeted the capital. UAF Air Force confirmed arrivals/intercepts over the city at 0018Z and 0033Z.
EXPANSION OF STRIKE RADIUS (0029Z-0037Z, AF ZSU / Николаевский Ванёк, HIGH): The ballistic offensive has expanded beyond Kyiv/Dnipro to include Vinnytsia, Elanets, and Pervomaisk. This indicates a multi-axis engagement designed to overstretch national air defense (AD) coverage.
MiG-31K/KINZHAL THREAT (0035Z-0038Z, AF ZSU / KMVA, MEDIUM): At least two MiG-31K interceptors were confirmed airborne, triggering nationwide Kh-47M2 Kinzhal alerts. As of 0038Z, the immediate threat subsided ("ne-ma" / gone), though platforms remain a high-readiness risk.
TARGETING OF RESERVOIRS/STORAGE (0028Z, Николаевский Ванёк, MEDIUM): Intelligence suggests a tactical shift toward targeting "various reservoirs" (likely fuel or water storage) in addition to energy infrastructure.
INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE IN KYIV (0021Z-0029Z, KMVA / Klitschko, HIGH): Confirmed damage to non-residential buildings and vehicles in the Dniprovskyi district. One casualty confirmed.
UNCONFIRMED: POWER GRID COLLAPSE (0021Z, Colonelcassad, LOW): Russian sources claim hits on two Thermal Power Plants (CHPs) and that Kyiv is 45% de-energized. While partial outages are confirmed, the specific "45%" and "2 CHPs" figures remain unconfirmed by UAF officials.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Axis (Kyiv/Chernihiv/Sumy):
Battlefield Geometry: High-intensity "combined" saturation environment. Russian forces are utilizing a "layered" approach: Shahed UAVs from Bryansk/Kursk (0026Z) act as the low-altitude screen, while Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistics provide the high-velocity kinetic impact.
Kyiv Status: Active PEO (Point of Entry) engagements. Intercepts confirmed over Vinnytsia and the Gaisyn vector (0031Z), indicating missiles are transiting the Kyiv corridor to reach deeper targets.
Activity: Dnipro remains under sustained ballistic and UAV pressure. At 0010Z, 2 of 6 Shaheds remained active over the city. A new ballistic vector toward Pervomaisk/Pivdennoukrainsk (0029Z) is critical due to proximity to the South Ukraine Nuclear Power Plant (SUNPP), although no direct targeting of the facility is confirmed.
3. Eastern Axis (Kharkiv):
Activity: Approximately 15 strike UAVs are currently transiting Kharkiv Oblast on a western course (0016Z). These likely serve as a secondary wave for central hubs or are intended to fix local AD assets.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Evolution: The enemy is demonstrating high-tempo "re-targeting" capabilities. Within 30 minutes, the strike package shifted from a Kyiv-centric attack to a broad central-Ukrainian offensive (Vinnytsia, Mykolaiv, Dnipro).
Aero-Ballistic Posture: The brief sortie of MiG-31K units (0035Z) suggests a "probe" to force UAF AD radars into active mode for electronic intelligence (ELINT) collection, or an aborted Kinzhal strike due to technical issues or AD readiness.
COA Assessment:
MLCOA: Continued Shahed incursions to maintain "alarm fatigue" while preparing a dawn wave of cruise missiles (Kh-101/555) from Tu-95MS platforms.
MDCOA: A coordinated Kinzhal/Zircon strike on decision-making centers in Kyiv while the grid is destabilized and emergency services are active.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: High-density engagement. Unofficial reports (0033Z, Vanyek) suggest successful "minus" (interception) of the ballistic wave transiting toward Vinnytsia/Gaisyn.
Damage Mitigation: KMVA and emergency services are prioritizing fire suppression in the Dniprovskyi district. Grid stabilization is underway, but secondary strikes are significantly hindering repair timelines.
Information environment / disinformation
"Blackout" Narrative: Russian milbloggers (Colonelcassad) are aggressively pushing the narrative of a total systemic collapse of the Kyiv power hub (0021Z). This is likely intended to incite panic and pressure the UAF to divert AD assets from the front lines to protect urban infrastructure.
Domestic RF Media: TASS is diverting attention to domestic regulatory changes (driver exam hardening, 0027Z) to mask or normalize the scale of the ongoing offensive to their domestic audience.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Immediate (0-4h): High risk of "double-tap" strikes on energy infrastructure in Kyiv and Vinnytsia. Monitoring for Tu-95MS take-offs from Olenya or Engels.
Short-Term (4-12h): Transition to emergency restoration. Expect significant transport delays in Kyiv if the Dniprovskyi district infrastructure damage impacts the metro or rail links.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Verification of CHP/TET status in Kyiv. Are the outages due to direct hits on generation or debris damage to distribution?
[HIGH] Status of the South Ukraine NPP (SUNPP) perimeter following the Pervomaisk ballistic vector (0029Z).
[MEDIUM] BDA of the "reservoir" targeting (0028Z). Identify if the enemy is successfully targeting fuel storage facilities to degrade winter fuel reserves.
