STRATEGIC SHIFT: ASYMMETRIC OPERATIONS APPROVED (1801Z, Zelenskiy/Official, HIGH): President Zelenskyy, following a briefing by SBU Head Vasyl Malyuk, has formally approved a new phase of "asymmetric operations" against the Russian Federation. Resources are reportedly fully secured.
CAPTURE OF WAR CRIME SUSPECT (1756Z, Zelenskiy/Official, HIGH): SBU Counter-intelligence (under Oleksandr Poklad) confirmed the capture of a Russian serviceman specifically identified as responsible for the execution of Ukrainian POWs in the Kursk region in October 2025.
POW RECOVERY - DOBROPILLIA (1754Z, Mykolaiv Vanek, MEDIUM): Elements of the Azov Brigade have captured a 7th prisoner in the Dobropillia direction, indicating localized tactical success and continued engagement in the sector.
RUSSIAN RECONNAISSANCE IN SUMY (1803Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): The Russian "Rubicon" unit has released footage of reconnaissance and strike operations in the Sumy direction, suggesting increased Russian ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) focus on this northern border sector.
BULGARIAN POLITICAL CRISIS CONFIRMED (1756Z, STERNENKO, HIGH): Further reports confirm President Rumen Radev’s resignation amid mass anti-government protests. This solidifies the political instability in a critical NATO supply-link.
LANCET EXPORT INITIATION (1805Z, Starshe Eddy, MEDIUM): Russian sources claim that "Lancet" loitering munitions, a primary threat to UAF armor, are now entering the export market, suggesting Russian production may have reached a surplus or a new manufacturing tier.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Axis (Sumy/Kursk):
SBU Operations: High-level activity in this sector. The capture of the specific Russian soldier linked to the October POW executions (1756Z) serves as both a counter-intelligence success and a significant morale/justice-driven narrative.
Russian Pressure: The "Rubicon" unit’s activity (1803Z) indicates Russia is maintaining active strike-recon capabilities in the Sumy direction, likely attempting to map UAF reinforcements or "asymmetric" launch sites.
2. Eastern Theater (Donbas):
Dobropillia Sector: Azov units are actively engaging and taking prisoners (1754Z). This suggests the frontline in this area remains fluid with high-intensity close-quarters combat.
Malynivka: Russian sources report the use of specialized amphibious "Grad" and "Ulan" units (1743Z), indicating Russian attempts to utilize terrain-specific assets in difficult winter conditions.
3. Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia):
Civilian Infrastructure Adaptation: Zaporizhzhia authorities have transitioned to bus-based public transport due to the degradation of the electric grid (1755Z), supported by international partners. This reflects the ongoing impact of Russian strikes on critical energy infrastructure.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Discipline/Morale: Video evidence (1757Z) depicts severe hazing and "field tribunals" within Russian ranks. This reinforces assessments of low organic morale and a reliance on coercive command structures to maintain discipline.
Weapon Systems: The potential export of "Lancet" drones (1805Z) suggests Russia is confident in its domestic supply chain despite sanctions, or is seeking to use the platform for broader geopolitical leverage.
Course of Action (Tactical): Increased ISR in Sumy (1803Z) may be a precursor to localized cross-border raids or precision strikes intended to disrupt the "asymmetric operations" recently approved by the UAF.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Strategic Planning: High-level SBU briefings (Khmara, Poklad, Malyuk) indicate a coordinated pivot toward unconventional and deep-strike operations. The emphasis on "asymmetric" warfare suggests a move away from attritional frontline combat toward high-value target disruption.
Justice Operations: The capture of war criminals in the field (1756Z) remains a priority for the SBU, likely functioning as a deterrent against further Russian field executions.
Information environment / disinformation
EU/US Rift Narrative: Russian channels (1742Z) are heavily amplifying a Politico report regarding a potential EU-Ukraine military alliance without US participation. LOW CONFIDENCE. This is likely an information operation designed to exploit perceived weaknesses in the Transatlantic alliance following the 1726Z reports.
Geopolitical Distraction: TASS is prioritizing coverage of a Spanish train derailment (1754Z) and Trump’s "Peace Council" for Gaza (1748Z) to dilute focus on Ukrainian tactical successes and SBU operational shifts.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: An increase in SBU-led "asymmetric" strikes against Russian logistics or command nodes in the rear, particularly in the Kursk/Belgorod border regions.
MDCOA: Russian "Rubicon" units in the Sumy direction coordinate with tactical aviation for a significant border breach to preempt the UAF’s approved unconventional operations.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Verification of "asymmetric operation" targets. SIGINT/ELINT required to monitor Russian high-value asset movements in response to the UAF's stated intent.
[HIGH] Analysis of Russian "Lancet" export claims. Determine if this indicates a genuine surplus or a propaganda effort to project industrial resilience.
[MEDIUM] Monitor Bulgarian protest dynamics to assess if the political vacuum will lead to a suspension of transit/logistical support for UAF shipments.
