COORDINATED AIR STRIKES ON URBAN CENTERS (1312Z-1337Z, РБК-Україна/Kyiv/Kharkiv Admin, HIGH): Simultaneous ballistic missile and KAB strikes targeted Dnipro and Kharkiv. In Kharkiv’s Slobidskyi district, KABs hit the private sector, resulting in confirmed fatalities and structural destruction.
SYSTEMIC UTILITY COLLAPSE IN OCCUPIED DONETSK (1338Z, Mash на Донбассе, MEDIUM): Reports indicate a total failure of power, water, and heating systems across the "DPR," exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in the occupied territory.
DIPLOMATIC MANEUVERING RE: BELARUS (1337Z, TASS, MEDIUM): US reportedly proposed Belarus as a founding member of a "Peace Council." Lukashenko’s positive reception suggests a potential RU-backed "peace" flank or a wedge operation to isolate Ukraine's position.
INTERNAL POLITICAL FRICTION IN KYIV (1312Z, KMVA, HIGH): The Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA) issued a direct public rebuke to Mayor Klitschko, citing worsening safety and management failures under his tenure.
ALLEGED WESTERN TECH FAILURE (1317Z, Два майора/Kotsnews, LOW): Russian sources claim Ukraine has suspended orders for German Helsing HX-2 strike drones due to "critical defects." UNCONFIRMED and assessed as a likely Information Operation (IO) to discredit Western aid.
CZECH REFUSAL OF L-159 AIRCRAFT (1331Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH): The Czech government has officially declined the sale of L-159 aircraft to Ukraine, a setback for UAF air capability expansion.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern/Kharkiv Axis: Active bombardment. RU forces are utilizing KAB-250/500 munitions to strike residential areas in Kharkiv city. UAF remains on high alert for follow-on ground activity.
Eastern Theater (Lyman/Donbas): (1317Z, Rybar) Operational maps indicate RU supply friction in the Lyman sector, likely resulting from UAF GUR raids in the rear. However, RU forces continue to hold pressure on the Serebryansky forest periphery.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia): (1337Z, Air Force UA) New KAB launches detected targeting Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Local authorities (1332Z) are focusing on "glazing" and civilian infrastructure repair in the city center following previous strikes.
Novopavlivka Sector: (1334Z, STERNENKO) UAF drone units continue to attrit RU infantry; video evidence confirms successful FPV strikes against RU personnel in snowy conditions.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Shift: RU is intensifying the "Saturation" approach mentioned in the daily report, using KABs and ballistics to overwhelm air defenses (1316Z-1337Z).
Logistics & Sustainment: RU is facing severe internal friction in occupied territories (DPR utility collapse), which may force them to divert military engineering assets to civilian stabilization or face civil unrest (1338Z).
Air Defense: RU MoD claims 16 UAF drones were intercepted in the last 4 hours (1332Z). This indicates high-volume UAF reconnaissance and strike-drone activity across the frontline.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Operations: UAF air defense successfully triggered alarms and managed threats over Dnipro/Kharkiv, though ballistic impacts were recorded.
Asymmetric Warfare: UAF drone operators maintain high lethality in the Novopavlivka and Eastern sectors, utilizing the current cold snap to target RU personnel in the open (1334Z).
Logistics: Addressing the potential loss of German HX-2 drones (if confirmed) will require a rapid pivot to domestic loitering munition production.
Information environment / disinformation
"The German Failure": A coordinated RU narrative (Two Majors, Kots, Desantnik) is circulating, claiming German drones are "unusable." This is likely timed to influence the Davos forum and discourage further European defense contracts.
Internal Destabilization: RU channels are amplifying the KMVA vs. Klitschko dispute (1312Z) and opposition claims of a "captured" Moscow (1316Z) to project an image of governance collapse on both sides.
Davos Narrative: (1315Z, Colonelcassad) RU reports that Kirill Dmitriev is heading to Davos for talks with US officials suggests a parallel diplomatic track intended to bypass UA leadership.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued KAB strikes on Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia. Potential for a second wave of ballistic missiles targeting Dnipro or Kyiv during the night transition.
MDCOA: (Previous Sitrep carryover) Strategic strike on NPP-related electrical substations to trigger a "Strategic Blackout" during current sub-zero temperatures.
Tactical: High probability of RU local counter-attacks in the Lyman sector to secure supply lines identified as vulnerable by Rybar (1317Z).
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Verify the status of the German HX-2 drone contract with the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense or German manufacturers to counter potential RU disinformation.
[HIGH] Assess the impact of the DPR utility collapse on RU military logistics; determine if the power failure affects RU rail movements in the Donbas.
[MEDIUM] Monitor the Belarus-US "Peace Council" development via Western diplomatic channels to ascertain if this is a genuine initiative or a RU-orchestrated maskirovka.
CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT:
Kharkiv/Dnipro Air Strikes: HIGH (Multiple official sources).
DPR Infrastructure Failure: MEDIUM (Corroborated by regional reports).
German Drone Failure: LOW (Single-domain RU source reporting).
KMVA vs. Klitschko Dispute: HIGH (Official administrative statements).
