AIR THREAT - KAB LAUNCHES (0716Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Confirmed launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) targeting Donetsk and Kharkiv regions.
UAV PENETRATION - REAR LOGISTICS (0732Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Enemy UAVs detected moving toward Pavlohrad, Ternivka, and Mezhova (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), likely targeting rail/logistics hubs.
ENERGY CRISIS (0721Z, 0735Z, RBC-UA/PM Shmyhal, HIGH): Power outages reaching 16 hours in some regions; Government directing redistribution of load to mitigate the most critical areas.
TACTICAL FRICTION - ZAPORIZHZHIA (0720Z, Poddubny, MEDIUM): Russian sources claim to have repelled UAF counter-attacks near Zaliznychne using FPV drones.
GEOPOLITICAL SHIFT - "WASHINGTON GROUP" (0712Z, Politico/TASS, MEDIUM): European leaders have reportedly formed an informal group to coordinate responses to US policy volatility.
INTERNAL SECURITY - RUSSIA (0715Z, RusVesna/FSB, MEDIUM): FSB claims to have prevented a "terrorist act" in the Irkutsk region; second report of sabotage prevention in this region within 24 hours.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Kupyansk):
Kupyansk Sector: Positional fighting continues near Peschanoe. Russian forces are attempting to consolidate gains to pressure Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi (0717Z).
Airstrikes: Ongoing KAB strikes targeting frontline and near-rear positions in Kharkiv Oblast (0716Z).
2. Eastern Axis (Donbas):
Donetsk Sector: Heavy engagements reported near Ivanivka and Novopavlivka. While Russian sources label this the "Dnipropetrovsk direction," these settlements are critical tactical points in western Donetsk Oblast (0731Z).
Aviation: Significant KAB activity reported across the Donetsk frontline (0716Z).
Infrastructure: Partial power failures reported in occupied Donetsk and Makiivka; cause currently undetermined (0709Z).
3. Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Mykolaiv):
Zaporizhzhia Front: Russian Vostok Group utilized Grad MLRS to strike UAF fortified positions in forest belts (0716Z). Combat remains intense near Zaliznychne where UAF is attempting localized counter-attacks (0720Z).
Air Activity: Russian reconnaissance UAVs identified in southern Mykolaiv region (0717Z). Enemy strike UAVs (Shaheds/Gerans) detected approaching Zaporizhzhia city from the east (0721Z).
4. Rear Areas / Logistics:
Dnipropetrovsk Hubs: The movement of UAVs toward Pavlohrad and Ternivka (0732Z) suggests an intent to disrupt the primary logistics artery feeding the Donbas front.
Enemy analysis (Threat Assessment)
1. Tactics & Adaptations:
Reconnaissance-Strike Loop: The presence of reconnaissance UAVs in Mykolaiv (0717Z) and Zaporizhzhia (0721Z) likely precedes the "Mass Strike" warned of in the 0709Z sitrep.
Suppression of Counter-attacks: Increased reliance on FPV drones and MLRS in the Zaporizhzhia sector indicates a Russian effort to fix UAF units in place and prevent them from seizing the initiative (0716Z, 0720Z).
2. Internal Stability:
Fringe Movements: Reports of "concerns" regarding Limonovtsy (National Bolsheviks) in Krasnodar (0712Z) may indicate minor internal security friction or the need for the Kremlin to manage ultra-nationalist elements as mobilization goals are met.
Friendly activity (UAF)
1. Tactical Posture:
Active Defense: UAF is conducting counter-attacks in the Zaporizhzhia sector (Zaliznychne) to disrupt Russian offensive preparations (0720Z).
Volunteer Integration: The OShP AREY (Ukrainian Volunteer Army) continues active recruitment, indicating a persistent need for high-readiness assault personnel to supplement regular brigades (0733Z).
2. Strategic Communication:
PM Shmyhal’s intervention regarding energy distribution (0735Z) is a direct response to the "City-Kill" campaign, aimed at maintaining civilian morale and industrial output.
Information environment / disinformation
Transatlantic Friction: Russian outlets are heavily amplifying narratives of Trump’s dissatisfaction with Europe (Norway/Nobel Prize) and his "Greenland" claims (0716Z, 0717Z). This is designed to portray the US as an erratic partner and encourage European "strategic autonomy" that excludes Ukraine.
European Response: The "Washington Group" narrative (0712Z) is being used by RU media to suggest a widening rift between the US and its EU allies.
Fear Incitement: Amplification of Washington Post claims that Putin may commit "something terrible" (0734Z) serves Russian interests by fostering a climate of nuclear/escalatory dread in Western capitals.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued KAB strikes on Kharkiv/Donetsk sectors to soften defenses for evening ground assaults. UAV strikes on Pavlohrad/Zaporizhzhia logistics nodes to continue throughout the night.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Initiation of the anticipated mass missile/UAV strike (48h window) targeting the energy grid and C2 nodes, synchronized with the current KAB surge to overwhelm air defenses.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[URGENT] Identify the specific launch platforms for the KABs (Su-34/Su-35) and their current basing to facilitate counter-air or deep-strike targeting.
[PRIORITY] Determine the cause of the power outages in occupied Donetsk/Makiivka (0709Z)—potential UAF partisan activity or collateral damage from Russian grid mismanagement.
[MEDIUM] Assess the strength of UAF counter-attacks in the Zaliznychne sector; determine if these are spoiling attacks or part of a larger localized offensive.
CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT:
Tactical Air Activity (KABs): HIGH (UA Air Force reporting).
Power Grid Status: HIGH (Official government statements).
European Coordination (Washington Group): MEDIUM (Secondary source reporting; requires diplomatic verification).
