MASS AERIAL ATTACK (0632Z-0635Z, UAF Air Force/GenStaff, HIGH): Russia launched 145 UAVs (approx. 90 Shahed-type) overnight. UAF air defenses intercepted or suppressed 126 units (87% success rate).
KINETIC ACTION - ZAPORIZHZHIA (0631Z, Diary of a Paratrooper, MEDIUM): Russian sources report renewed offensive operations west of Orikhiv. This follows earlier 0607Z claims of UAF attrition, suggesting a transition from shaping operations to localized ground assaults.
INFRASTRUCTURE STRIKE - ODESA (0623Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH): Night drone attack on Odesa region resulted in at least one civilian injury and damage to infrastructure.
RF INTERNAL INSTABILITY - FINANCIAL (0610Z, Sever.Realii, MEDIUM): Russian banks reportedly blocked 2-3 million transactions in the first three weeks of 2026. Indicates severe systemic friction in the RF financial sector or intensified capital controls.
HYBRID/IO - HUNGARY & PEACE COUNCIL (0619Z, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM): Reports circulate that Hungary has joined a US-led "Peace Council" involving Donald Trump. Assessed as part of a broader effort to fragment EU/NATO consensus on Ukraine.
RF INTERNAL SECURITY - SABOTAGE (0624Z, TASS, MEDIUM): FSB/MVD detained a suspect in Irkutsk Oblast for allegedly preparing a "terrorist attack" against infrastructure. Highlights ongoing internal security threats within the RF strategic rear.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Sumy):
Kharkiv Oblast: Governor Syniehubov reports 5 settlements targeted by strikes in the last 24 hours (0638Z). Reconnaissance UAVs remain active along the border (0629Z).
Sumy Oblast: Fresh wave of enemy UAVs detected moving west from eastern Sumy (0625Z). The region remains a primary vector for the "Saturation" campaign.
2. Eastern Axis (Donbas):
Donetsk Sector: UAF reports launches of KAB (guided aerial bombs) against targets in Donetsk (0629Z). Reconnaissance UAVs are active along the line of demarcation.
Serebryansky Forest/Lyman: Baseline context indicates ongoing heavy combat (Daily Report); no new tactical changes reported in the current window.
3. Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk):
Orikhiv Sector: Renewed Russian offensive activity reported (0631Z). This matches the MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action) identified in the previous sitrep, where RF uses claims of UAF attrition to justify localized breakthroughs.
Dnipropetrovsk: Reconnaissance UAVs active along the line of demarcation (0629Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation/UAVs: Russia is sustaining its "Saturation" tactic, nearing the 1,000 drone/day target mentioned by Gen. Syrskyi. The 145-drone wave confirms a high-tempo aerial campaign intended to exhaust AD stocks.
Tactical Shifts: In Zaporizhzhia, the enemy has pivoted from information-shaping (claims of "elite unit" destruction) to reported ground movement west of Orikhiv. This suggests a desire to seize tactical high ground or disrupt UAF defensive rotations.
Internal Security: The arrest in Irkutsk (0624Z) and the hunt for the former Sverdlovsk Deputy Minister (0634Z) indicate the Kremlin is tightening internal controls to prevent domestic sabotage of the war effort.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Performance: High efficiency (87%) during the 145-UAV wave indicates robust coordination despite the high volume of targets. Use of EW/suppression (126/145 total "neutralized") suggests successful integration of non-kinetic assets.
Civilian Defense: Ongoing damage assessment in Odesa and Kharkiv; emergency services are managing localized infrastructure hits.
Information environment / disinformation
"The Greenland Wedge" Counter-Narrative: TASS is now reporting British denials of rights to Greenland (0613Z), likely an attempt to keep the diplomatic friction alive by responding to Western rebuttals.
Peace Narratives: The "Hungary/Peace Council" story (0619Z) is a high-impact narrative designed to signal a diplomatic pivot by the US/Hungary, potentially undermining the current UAF defensive posture by suggesting an imminent, externally-imposed ceasefire.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued UAV reconnaissance in Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk to identify gaps for subsequent KAB or drone strikes. Expected secondary wave of 30-50 UAVs targeting the Northern Axis.
MDCOA: Russian forces in Zaporizhzhia attempt a company-to-battalion sized breakthrough west of Orikhiv, supported by the KAB strikes currently hitting the Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia transition zone.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[PRIORITY] Confirm the scale of Russian ground movement west of Orikhiv. Is this a reconnaissance-in-force or a sustained offensive?
[CRITICAL] Assess the impact of blocked financial transactions in the RF on their defense-industrial logistics.
[MEDIUM] Monitor the validity of the "Hungary Peace Council" reports; determine if this is a genuine diplomatic shift or a coordinated IO fabrication.
CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT:
Overnight Drone Volume (145 units): HIGH (Corroborated by GenStaff/Air Force).
Zaporizhzhia Offensive Action: MEDIUM (Single Russian source; corroboration from frontline units required).
RF Financial Friction: MEDIUM (Reported by independent RU-language media; correlates with known economic pressures).
