KAB STRIKES ON SUMY OBLAST (0044Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Multiple launches of guided aerial bombs (KAB) detected targeting Sumy region. This follows reported systemic utility collapses in the sector.
UAV THREAT TO SHOSTKA (0103Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): UAVs (Shahed/Geran) detected on a northern vector moving directly toward Shostka (Sumy Oblast).
ZAPORIZHZHIA SECTOR EXPANSION (0107Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): UAVs are currently transiting toward Kushuhum and Komyshuvakha, expanding the threat radius south/southeast of Zaporizhzhia city.
ELECTRONIC WARFARE ADAPTATION (0044Z, TASS, MEDIUM): Kalashnikov Concern reports "Goliath" and "Karakurt" UAVs have been upgraded with frequency-hopping/agility capabilities to bypass EW.
RUSSIAN AD ACTIVITY - NORTH (0106Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Footage confirms Pantsir-S engagement of a UAF drone in the "North" Group of Forces area (likely Belgorod/Kursk border).
STRATEGIC DIVERGENCE (0105Z, RBK-Ukraine, MEDIUM): Reports of EU-US trade tariff tensions emerging, potentially impacting long-term Western industrial alignment.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Axis (Sumy/Kharkiv):
Sumy/Shostka: The sector is under increased pressure. The combination of KAB strikes (0044Z) and northern-approaching UAVs (0103Z) suggests a coordinated effort to suppress Shostka, a critical industrial and chemical hub. This aligns with the "City-Kill" campaign noted in the previous 24h context.
Vovchansk: Remains a critical point of friction (per previous daily report); however, no new tactical shifts were reported in the last 60 minutes.
2. Central Axis (Dnipropetrovsk/Pavlohrad):
Status: Monitoring "remaining" UAVs (0056Z). The previous convergence on Dnipro city remains the primary threat, though no new kinetic impacts have been confirmed in the 0045Z–0105Z window.
3. Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia):
Tactical Shift: UAVs have moved from the Vilniansk vector (previous sitrep) toward Kushuhum and Komyshuvakha (0107Z). This maneuver targets the logistics and rail arteries connecting Zaporizhzhia to the southern frontline, indicating a shift from infrastructure (energy) to tactical logistics suppression.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Technological Adaptation: The deployment of frequency-hopping UAVs (Goliath/Karakurt) is a significant threat to Ukrainian tactical EW (Electronic Warfare) dominance. If confirmed, current UAF jamming profiles may require immediate recalibration.
Aviation Activity: The use of KABs in Sumy indicates Russian tactical aviation remains active despite the air alerts, likely operating from the "safe zone" of the border to loft munitions.
Group of Forces (North): Active air defense (Pantsir-S) engagement (0106Z) suggests continued UAF reconnaissance or counter-battery drone activity in the Russian rear, keeping enemy AD assets pinned.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Mobile fire groups are actively tracking the Shostka and Zaporizhzhia UAV vectors.
Electronic Warfare: UAF EW units are likely facing increased challenges if the "Goliath" frequency agility is operational in the current wave.
Rear Operations: Continued drone reconnaissance in the Northern border sectors is forcing Russian AD into high-readiness cycles.
Information environment / disinformation
Technological Superiority Narrative: Russian state media (TASS) is pushing the UAV upgrade narrative to undermine Ukrainian confidence in their EW capabilities.
Western Fragmentation: Russian sources are amplifying EU-US trade friction reports to project a narrative of fading Western unity.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued UAV and KAB saturation of Sumy and Zaporizhzhia outskirts through 0400Z. Focus will remain on Shostka's industrial infrastructure.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A breakthrough in the Vovchansk sector (noted as critical in 24h context) supported by the newly adapted frequency-hopping drones, potentially overrunning localized EW screens.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Verification of frequency-hopping effectiveness of Goliath/Karakurt UAVs—require SIGINT analysis of downed units.
[HIGH] Damage assessment of KAB strikes in Sumy—identify if targeting civilian infrastructure or military assembly points.
[MEDIUM] Confirmation of "remaining" UAV count in the Central axis to determine the end of the current wave.
CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT:
Sumy KAB/UAV Threat: HIGH (Official AFU reports)
Zaporizhzhia Vector Shift: HIGH (Official AFU reports)
