SOUTHERN GRID INSTABILITY (1307Z, TASS/Governor, MEDIUM): Power supply severed in 25 settlements in the Kherson region. Official Russian sources cite a "technical failure" at a substation.
ZAPORIZHZHIA TERROR CAMPAIGN (1258Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): For the third consecutive day, Russian forces have maintained a continuous strike tempo against Zaporizhzhia city and district, causing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage.
EXPANDED KAB OPERATIONS (1254Z/1259Z, PS ZSU, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has expanded guided aerial bomb (KAB) strikes beyond Northern Kharkiv to include Donetsk and Eastern Dnipropetrovsk regions.
UAF COUNTER-FPV SUCCESS (1251Z, Sternenko/111th TDF, MEDIUM): The 111th Separate TDF Brigade (KORSHUN CREW) successfully neutralized Russian FPV operator positions on the Kostyantynivka axis.
POKROVSK DEFENSIVE ATTRITION (1253Z, Butusov Plus, HIGH): UAV units of the 68th Jaeger Brigade ("Shershni Dovbusha") are actively engaging Russian personnel and equipment on the approaches to and within Pokrovsk city.
RF SUSTAINMENT OPERATIONS (1305Z, RF MoD, MEDIUM): Repair units of the Ulyanovsk Guards Airborne Formation (Dnepr Group) are reportedly conducting daily modernization and restoration of combat hardware in the Southern AO.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Sumy/Kharkiv):
Sumy Axis: A Russian UAV was detected moving toward Sumy from the north (1249Z). This follows a pattern of reconnaissance-in-force.
NE Kharkiv Axis: Persistent KAB strikes continue (1254Z), maintaining pressure on defensive perimeters identified in previous reports.
2. Eastern Sector (Donbas/Luhansk):
Pokrovsk Direction: Heavy engagement reported within the city limits and on approaches. UAF is leveraging the 68th Jaeger's drone capabilities to offset Russian mechanized or infantry-heavy advances (1253Z).
Kostyantynivka Axis: UAF tactical successes against Russian FPV crews (1251Z) indicate a concerted effort to degrade Russian tactical "eyes" and strike capability in this sector.
Aerial Pressure: The expansion of KAB strikes into Donetsk and Eastern Dnipropetrovsk (1259Z) suggests a broadening of the Russian "infrastructure decapitation" strategy toward frontline logistics hubs.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Kherson Grid: The blackout affecting 25 settlements (1307Z) is a critical development. While labeled a "technical failure," it occurs amidst high-alert warnings regarding the national energy backbone and may indicate localized testing of grid-collapse triggers.
Zaporizhzhia: Systematic bombardment (3rd day) suggests an intent to force civilian displacement and saturate local emergency response capabilities (1258Z).
Maintenance: RF VDV repair units are focusing on restoring hardware (1305Z), likely to sustain the momentum of the "Zhovtneve breach" mentioned in the previous daily report.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Logistics & Sustainment: The Russian "Dnepr" group is prioritizing the modernization of hardware near the frontlines (1305Z). This suggests an intent to maintain high-intensity operations despite attrition, likely focusing on armored resilience ("Yezh" armor variants).
Tactical Adaptation: The focus on neutralizing UAF "Baba Yaga" drones (previous sitrep) and the ongoing use of FPV operators indicates a high-density electronic warfare and drone-on-drone environment.
COURSE OF ACTION: The expansion of KAB targets suggests Russia is moving to isolate the Donbas front from Dnipropetrovsk logistics by targeting the seam between these regions.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Unmanned Systems: UAF remains heavily dependent on elite drone units (68th Jaeger, 111th TDF) to provide precision fires. The successful targeting of RF FPV operators (1251Z) is a high-value tactical gain, as it disrupts the enemy’s local strike chain.
Kyiv Logistics: A significant traffic incident on the Paton Bridge (1248Z) has complicated movement in the capital, potentially impacting local military logistics or emergency service readiness during an active air threat period.
Information environment (cognitive domain)
NATO Fragmentation Narrative: Russian and pro-Russian channels (TASS, Colonelcassad) are aggressively amplifying the withdrawal of German troops from Greenland (1247Z, 1254Z). This is being linked to US-Germany trade tensions (1241Z) and Macron’s call for EU countermeasures (1252Z).
Analytic Judgment: This is a multi-layered IO designed to portray NATO as being in a state of internal collapse due to economic pressures from the US administration.
Distraction Operations: Highlighting rebel gains in Raqqa, Syria (1243Z, 1249Z) serves to distract from Russian domestic issues (e.g., Tyva event cancellations) and frames the Western-backed Kurdish forces as failing.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued high-intensity KAB strikes on the Pokrovsk-Dnipropetrovsk axis to disrupt UAF reinforcements.
MDCOA: The Kherson "technical failure" may be a precursor or a dry run for a wider assault on NPP-linked substations. If the Kherson blackout expands or is followed by kinetic strikes on the South Ukraine NPP substations, a regional grid collapse is imminent.
Tactical: UAF must expect increased Russian attempts to locate and strike the "Shershni Dovbusha" and other high-performing UAV units in the Pokrovsk sector.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Kherson Power Failure: Determine if the "technical failure" was caused by internal sabotage, remote cyber interference, or undetected kinetic impact.
[HIGH] KAB Range/Variant: Identify if the strikes on Eastern Dnipropetrovsk (1259Z) involve new extended-range UMPK modules, as this would increase the threat profile for rear-area logistics.
[MEDIUM] Raqqa IO Correlation: Monitor if the Syrian narrative is being used to mask specific Russian movement of assets (e.g., Wagner or MoD units) out of the Middle East to the Ukrainian theater.
CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT:
Zaporizhzhia Strike Intensity: HIGH (Official civilian/local reports).
Kherson Grid Failure: MEDIUM (Confirmed status, unconfirmed cause).
UAF Drone Tactical Successes: MEDIUM (Single-source video evidence, consistent with unit AORs).
