KYIV GRID INSTABILITY (1124Z-1126Z, DTEK/RBK-UA, HIGH): Emergency power shutoffs are currently in effect across the Kyiv region; standard stabilization schedules have been suspended due to critical system strain.
ZAPORIZHZHIA LOCALIZED OFFENSIVE (1131Z, Сливочный каприз, LOW/UNCONFIRMED): Pro-Russian sources report a localized offensive action in the Orikhiv–Shcherbaky sector. This aligns with the "Southern Front buckling" reported in previous daily assessments.
ZNPP REPAIR CEASEFIRE (1125Z, IAEA/Tsaplienko, HIGH): A localized, temporary ceasefire is in effect near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) to allow for critical repairs to high-voltage power lines (LEP).
FIBER-OPTIC DRONE PROCUREMENT (1124Z, STERNENKO, HIGH): Ukrainian volunteer efforts have secured over 26.8M UAH (53% of target) for 1,200+ fiber-optic drones designed to bypass Russian Electronic Warfare (EW).
BERDYANSK WATER CRISIS (1126Z, Mash na Donbasse, MEDIUM): Sustained power outages have forced the restriction of water supplies in occupied Berdyansk as pumping stations lose functionality.
BELGOROD CASUALTIES (1130Z, ASTRA/Gov. Gladkov, HIGH): Russian authorities confirm one civilian death and one injury following UAF kinetic activity in the Belgorod border region.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kyiv/Chernihiv/Kharkiv):
Kyiv Hub: The energy situation has degraded from "scheduled" to "emergency" status. DTEK confirms that the grid cannot currently support predictable load-shedding schedules (1126Z).
Serebryansky Forest (Luhansk/Kharkiv Border): High-intensity skirmishes continue. The "Signum" battalion (53rd Mechanized Brigade) is actively engaged in neutralizing high-priority targets within the forest (1130Z).
2. Eastern Sector (Donbas):
SBU Operations: SBU "Alpha" special forces continue high-frequency attrition of Russian infantry via drone-corrected strikes (1129Z).
Environmental Factors: Russian paratrooper sources report that inclement weather is severely hindering the transport and deployment of FPV drones (1114Z), potentially creating a temporary window for UAF tactical movement.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Orikhiv Axis: UNCONFIRMED reports of a Russian tactical push toward Shcherbaky (1131Z). This follows the confirmed loss of Zhovtneve and suggests a Russian effort to widen the breach toward the H-08 highway.
Infrastructure: While a localized ceasefire allows repairs at ZNPP (1125Z), the broader energy collapse is affecting occupied territories, notably Berdyansk (1126Z).
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Tactical Adaptations: Russian forces are increasingly using weather-related visibility drops to mask infantry movements, though they are simultaneously struggling with drone logistics in the same conditions (1114Z).
Hybrid Targeting: Russian information operations are weaponizing internal Ukrainian political discourse (statements by MP Bezuhla) to identify and prioritize vulnerabilities in the Ukrainian energy grid (1131Z).
Logistics: The loss of power in occupied Berdyansk suggests that Russian occupation authorities are unable to insulate critical civilian infrastructure from the systemic effects of the "City-Kill" campaign, potentially leading to civil unrest in occupied zones.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Technological Pivot: Rapid fundraising for fiber-optic drones (1124Z) indicates a strategic shift toward "un-jammable" precision strike capabilities to counter Russian EW dominance.
Asymmetric Pressure: UAF continues to maintain a high tempo of strikes on Russian territory (Belgorod), forcing the RF to maintain significant Air Defense and Rosgvardia assets on the border (1130Z).
Veteran Support: The Zaporizhzhia Regional Administration has launched a mobility compensation program for disabled veterans (1125Z), focused on vehicle conversion.
Information environment (cognitive domain)
Strategic Distraction: Russian channels are amplifying narratives regarding a "march on Washington" in Venezuela (1131Z) and European "hysteria" over US trade policy (1121Z) to project an image of global Western decline and American domestic instability.
Internal Friction: Pro-Russian actors are highlighting "emergency audits" of Ukrainian "Points of Invincibility" (1131Z) to seed doubt regarding the efficiency of the Ukrainian government’s winter survival strategy.
Solidarity Campaigns: Spontaneous public fundraising in Poland for Kyiv generators (1118Z) serves as a counter-narrative to Russian claims of "Western fatigue."
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued emergency blackouts in the Kyiv region as the grid struggles to stabilize. Expect Russian forces to attempt small-unit infiltrations in the Orikhiv sector under cover of the reported weather conditions.
MDCOA: A renewed missile/UAV strike specifically targeting the ZNPP repair crews or the newly repaired LEPs to permanently decouple the plant from the Ukrainian grid during the current vulnerability window.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Orikhiv Breakthrough: Verify the scale of RF offensive action toward Shcherbaky. Identify if this involves mechanized units or is a limited infantry probe.
[HIGH] Grid Health: Determine the specific cause of the transition from "scheduled" to "emergency" blackouts in Kyiv (e.g., specific substation failure vs. systemic frequency instability).
[MEDIUM] Fiber-Optic Efficacy: Monitor the first combat deployments of the 1,200+ fiber drones for BDA and EW-resistance metrics.
CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT:
Kyiv emergency blackouts: HIGH (Official DTEK reporting).
Orikhiv offensive: LOW (Single pro-RU source).
ZNPP localized ceasefire: HIGH (IAEA/International monitoring).
