UAS DEEP PENETRATION – VINNYTSIA/KHMELNYTSKYI (2349Z-0003Z, UAF AF, HIGH): Multiple Shahed UAV groups are transiting Vinnytsia Oblast (Nemyriv, Gnivan, Zhmerynka) on a vector toward Khmelnytskyi Oblast.
AIRSPACE RESTRICTION – PENZA, RF (2343Z, TASS, MEDIUM): Plan "Kover" (Carpet) initiated in Penza Oblast, indicating suspected Ukrainian UAS activity deep within Russian territory.
THREAT TO KYIV OBLAST (2358Z, UAF AF, HIGH): UAVs identified moving toward Vasylkiv, a critical site for UAF aviation and logistics.
NORTHERN VECTOR UAS (2351Z, UAF AF, MEDIUM): UAVs approaching Novohrad-Volynskyi (Zviahel) from the North, suggesting a launch from Belarusian territory or a bypass of northern radar screens.
LEGAL-POLITICAL HYBRID OP (2351Z, TASS/Medvedchuk, LOW): Russian state media is promoting a narrative that the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada is the "only legitimate signatory" for peace deals, aiming to delegitimize President Zelenskyy.
ADDITIONAL CASUALTIES – KHARKIV (2352Z, Kharkiv OVA, HIGH): One additional civilian injury (stress reaction) confirmed following previous strikes, following the 2316Z fatality.
Operational picture (by sector)
Central/Western Corridor (Vinnytsia/Khmelnytskyi/Zhytomyr):
The enemy is executing a coordinated bypass of central AD clusters. The movement toward Zhmerynka (2356Z) is a high-priority threat given its status as a premier railway junction for Western aid and troop movements. The vector toward Khmelnytskyi (0003Z) likely targets the Starokostiantyniv airbase or regional energy substations.
Kyiv Sector:
UAS movement toward Vasylkiv (2358Z) indicates a focus on disrupting UAF tactical aviation or regional air defense command nodes. This is a continuation of the "National Air Defense Grid" saturation strategy noted in the previous report.
Northern Axis:
The detection of UAVs heading toward Novohrad-Volynskyi (Zviahel) from the North (2351Z) suggests a multi-axis approach intended to stretch Ukrainian Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) along the border regions.
Russian Rear (Penza Oblast):
The activation of Plan "Kover" (2343Z) suggests UAF deep-strike capabilities are active. Penza (approx. 700km from the border) contains sensitive industrial and military-industrial sites. Airspace closure typically precedes AD engagements or indicates unidentified radar tracks.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Shift: The RF is moving away from simple "city-kill" strikes toward logistical strangulation, targeting major rail hubs (Zhmerynka) and northern transport corridors (Zviahel).
Hybrid Tactics: The use of Viktor Medvedchuk to push "constitutional" alternatives to the current Ukrainian leadership (2351Z) indicates a synchronized Information Operation (IO) intended to coincide with the winter kinetic offensive, targeting Ukrainian domestic political stability.
UAS Vectoring: The 0003Z update confirms a deliberate "slalom" flight path, using Vinnytsia's terrain and urban centers to mask movement toward Khmelnytskyi.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: UAF AF is maintaining high-fidelity tracking of fragmented UAS groups. MFGs in Vinnytsia and Kyiv Oblasts are likely in active engagement zones as of 0000Z.
Deep Strike (Provisional): While unconfirmed by the General Staff, the Penza airspace closure suggests UAF long-range UAS are maintaining pressure on the Russian interior to force the relocation of AD assets from the front.
Information environment / disinformation
Delegitimization Campaign: The Medvedchuk interview (2351Z) is a classic "legalistic" subversion tactic. By framing the Rada Chairman as the legitimate peace negotiator, Moscow is attempting to create a pretext for refusing to negotiate with the current executive branch.
Religious Wedge Issues: "Operation Z" (2359Z) is exploiting the Russian Catholic Church's neutrality to paint a picture of "Christian persecution" in Ukraine and neighboring states, aiming to consolidate conservative support within Russia and among Western sympathetic audiences.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued UAS strikes on Zhmerynka and Khmelnytskyi targets throughout the early morning. RF will likely amplify the "legitimacy" narrative via Western-facing botnets.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): The UAS currently over Vasylkiv act as "pathfinders" for a follow-on cruise missile strike targeting Kyiv’s administrative or military command centers at dawn.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[HIGH] Identify the specific launch origin of the UAVs approaching Novohrad-Volynskyi; confirm if Belarusian airspace was utilized.
[MEDIUM] BDA on Penza: Determine if the "Kover" plan was triggered by a successful strike on industrial assets or a technical malfunction/false alarm.
[CRITICAL] Monitor internal Rada communications/sentiment for any traction regarding the "legitimate signatory" narrative to assess the effectiveness of the RF Information Operation.
CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT:
UAS Vectors (Vinnytsia/Kyiv): HIGH (UAF AF tracking).
Penza Airspace Closure: HIGH (Official Russian state media).
