CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE LOSS – VILNIANSK (2209Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): Confirmed total de-energization of the Vilniansk community following Russian strikes; over 15,000 subscribers are without power. Critical facilities have transitioned to backup generators (2151Z).
AERIAL CAMPAIGN – SHAHED SWARM (2149Z–2205Z, UAF AF, HIGH): Large-scale loitering munition (Shahed) activity detected across multiple axes: Vinnytsia (vectoring Kryzhopil/Chechelnyk), Poltava (from Sumy), and Kharkiv (Bohodukhiv, heading south).
TACTICAL SUCCESS – MYRNOHRAD SECTOR (2157Z, Operatyvnyi ZSU, MEDIUM): Elements of the 79th Air Assault Brigade (UAF) successfully executed a deception-based ambush near Myrnohrad, neutralizing Russian personnel.
TERRITORIAL LOSS – ZHOVTNEVE (2203Z, Colonelcassad/Ru MoD, HIGH): Russian state sources released footage from the 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment (127th MSD) confirming the capture and "clearing" of Zhovtneve, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
GEOPOLITICAL INSTABILITY – US-EU RIFT (2207Z, RBC-UA/Reuters, HIGH): EU ambassadors have been summoned to an emergency meeting in Brussels for tomorrow following US tariff threats linked to the Greenland sovereignty dispute.
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia):
The situation is deteriorating. The loss of Zhovtneve is now confirmed by Russian tactical footage (2203Z), validating the "widening breach" noted in the previous daily report. The Russian 127th Motorized Rifle Division is consolidating gains, likely preparing for a mechanized push toward the H-08 highway. The strike on Vilniansk (2209Z) serves as operational preparation, degrading the logistical and civil support capacity of a key node behind the Huliaipole/Stepnohirsk lines.
Eastern Axis (Donbas/Pokrovsk):
High-intensity tactical engagements continue. While the broader front is under pressure, the 79th Air Assault Brigade's success near Myrnohrad (2157Z) indicates that elite UAF units retain high combat effectiveness and the ability to conduct localized counter-attacks using deceptive tactics.
Northern/Central Axis (Deep Strike/UAS):
The Russian Federation (RF) has launched a multi-axis Shahed-136/131 wave. Current vectors suggest a coordinated effort to saturate air defenses in:
Vinnytsia Oblast: Exploiting the southern corridor from Odesa/Kirovohrad (2149Z).
Poltava Oblast: Transitioning from the Sumy vector (2151Z).
Kharkiv Oblast: Moving south toward the industrial heartland or rear logistical hubs (2203Z).
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Course of Action: Russia is executing a "Multi-Domain Compression" strategy. Kinetically, they are exploiting gaps in the South (Zhovtneve). Synchronously, they are using massed Shahed launches to fix UAF Air Defense (AD) assets in the interior, preventing their redeployment to the collapsing southern front.
Logistics/Sustainment: The 127th MSD's ability to maintain momentum in Zaporizhzhia suggests their supply lines from the Russian rear are currently uninterrupted.
Tactical Adaptation: The use of 394th MRR for "mopping up" operations in Zhovtneve indicates a phased assault pattern: elite units breach, followed by standard motorized rifle units for consolidation.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Force Posture: The 79th Air Assault Brigade continues to serve as a "fire brigade" in the Myrnohrad sector, utilizing high-skill tactical maneuvers to offset Russian numerical superiority.
Resilience Operations: Zaporizhzhia OVA's rapid transition of Vilniansk to backup power (2151Z) suggests a high state of readiness for "City-Kill" scenarios, though the long-term sustainability of backup power for 15,000+ residents is LOW.
Information environment / disinformation
The "Greenland Diversion": Russian state media (TASS, 2153Z) and pro-RU channels are heavily amplifying the US-EU rift. By quoting Estonian PM Kallas's plea for the US not to "distract" from Ukraine, Russian propaganda aims to frame Western support as terminal or secondary to domestic US interests.
Reflexive Control: The release of Zhovtneve "liberation" footage (2203Z) is timed to coincide with news of Western diplomatic infighting, intended to demoralize the Ukrainian domestic audience.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued Shahed strikes through the night targeting energy substations in Vinnytsia and Poltava. Russian forces in the South will attempt to push north from Zhovtneve toward the Pryluki-Huliaipole line.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): RF forces exploit the Vilniansk blackout to launch a night-time mechanized assault on the H-08 highway while UAF C2 is hampered by power/communication outages.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Determine the status of UAF 108th TDF Brigade positions north of the Zhovtneve breach; verify if they have been bypassed or enveloped.
[HIGH] Identify if the Shaheds in Vinnytsia (2205Z) are targeting the Dniester Pumped Storage Power Station or regional transmission nodes.
[MEDIUM] Assess the impact of the US-EU tariff dispute on the immediate delivery of the emergency aid package currently being negotiated by the Budanov/Umerov delegation in D.C.
CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT:
Loss of Zhovtneve: HIGH (Corroborated by combat footage and previous breach reports).
Vilniansk Infrastructure Damage: HIGH (Official OVA reporting).
79th Brigade Tactical Success: MEDIUM (Single source/video).
