AERIAL BOMBARDMENT – ZAPORIZHZHIA (2036Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Confirmed launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) targeting the Zaporizhzhia sector. This indicates a high-intensity preparation phase for continued ground operations.
DEEP STRIKE OPERATIONS – RUSSIAN FEDERATION (2016Z, TASS/MOD RF, MEDIUM): Russian MoD claims 34 Ukrainian UAVs were intercepted over various Russian regions within a three-hour window. This corroborates earlier alerts in Lipetsk and suggests a large-scale, coordinated UAF deep-strike or reconnaissance-in-force operation.
INTERNAL SECURITY – RUSSIAN NUCLEAR SECTOR (2015Z, Alex Parker Returns, MEDIUM): Arrest of Mikhail Shcherbak, Director of Capital Construction at Atomstroyexport and former official in the closed nuclear city of Sarov. Allegations involve "financing the UAF." This suggests a high-level purge or genuine penetration of the Russian nuclear industrial complex.
SPILLOVER INCIDENT – MOLDOVA (2010Z, RBC-UA, HIGH): A Russian "Gerbera" (loitering munition/decoy) crashed in Moldova overnight. This marks a继续 expansion of the geographical risk zone and reckless flight pathing by Russian forces.
TACTICAL RECONNAISSANCE – PRIMORSKE (2019Z, Two Majors, HIGH): Video evidence confirms intense Russian drone activity in the Primorske area of the Zaporizhzhia front, likely supporting the ongoing push toward the H-08 highway.
GEOPOLITICAL FRICTION – US/EU TRADE (2020Z-2037Z, TASS/DeepState/RBC-UA, HIGH): Rapidly escalating diplomatic crisis regarding proposed US tariffs on EU states over the "Greenland issue." Emergency EU ambassador meeting scheduled for Jan 18.
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia): The primary focus of combat activity has shifted here. New KAB launches (2036Z) and increased drone operations in Primorske (2019Z) follow the recent Russian seizure of Zhovtneve and Pryluki. The threat to the H-08 logistics artery is CRITICAL.
Northern Axis (Sumy/Kharkiv): No new kinetic updates since the 2000Z water intake strike. "City-Kill" conditions persist with infrastructure repairs likely hampered by continued aerial threat.
International/Moldovan Border: The crash of a "Gerbera" UAV in Moldova (2010Z) highlights the use of cheaper, distracting munitions to saturate air defenses, occasionally resulting in technical failures or navigation errors over sovereign non-combatant territory.
Enemy analysis
Tactical Course of Action: Russian forces are prioritizing the Zaporizhzhia front with heavy aviation support (KABs). The use of "Gerbera" drones alongside "Shaheds" (noted at 2029Z) is intended to deplete UAF AD interceptors ahead of the predicted early-week missile surge.
Internal Stability: The arrest of a senior executive from Atomstroyexport (2015Z) indicates heightened paranoia or active counter-intelligence successes within the Russian rear. Sarov is a critical hub for nuclear warhead development; any compromise there represents a major security breach for the RF.
C2 & Logistics: Continued reliance on KABs suggests Russia has maintained effective forward-deployment of aviation assets despite UAF drone pressure on Russian airfields.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Asymmetric Deep Strikes: The launch of 34+ UAVs (2016Z) indicates UAF is maintaining its own "compellence" strategy, targeting the Russian rear to force the redeployment of AA assets (like the 183rd Guards AA) away from the front lines.
Defensive Posture: UAF is holding the line in the South under extreme aerial pressure. No major territory losses reported in the last 60 minutes, but the intensity of KAB strikes suggests a pending Russian assault.
Information environment / disinformation
Mobilization Narratives: RU-aligned sources (Colonelcassad, 2015Z) are circulating claims of gas usage by UAF mobilization teams in Rivne. This is a clear attempt to incite internal unrest and distract from Russian tactical gains.
Western Disunity: Russian state media is aggressively amplifying the US-EU trade dispute (2020Z). The "Greenland" narrative is being used to frame the US as an unreliable partner, potentially to undermine long-term military aid prospects.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued Russian ground pressure in the Zaporizhzhia sector supported by KAB strikes. Possible additional "Shahed" waves entering from the NE/SE to maintain pressure on the power grid.
MDCOA: A breakout from the Zhovtneve breach toward Stepnohirsk, synchronized with a new missile wave targeting NPP-related substations.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Zaporizhzhia Ground Movement: Confirm if KAB strikes (2036Z) are preceding a mechanized assault toward Primorske or Stepnohirsk.
[HIGH] Shcherbak Arrest Impact: Determine if the arrest of the Atomstroyexport executive is linked to the earlier UAF strike on the Kapustin Yar missile range or other strategic sabotages.
[MEDIUM] Moldova Response: Monitor Moldovan MoD for formal protests or changes in AD posture following the "Gerbera" crash.
CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT:
Zaporizhzhia KAB Strikes: HIGH (Official UAF Air Force).
Moldova UAV Crash: HIGH (Visual/Press evidence).
UAF Drone Wave (34 units): MEDIUM (Reported by RU MoD; requires UAF confirmation).
Russian Internal Purge: MEDIUM (Multiple non-official but credible RU-insider sources).
