STRATEGIC DEEP STRIKE: KAPUSTIN YAR TARGETED (1447Z, Operativnyi ZSU/Militarnyi, MEDIUM): Ukrainian UAVs reportedly attacked the Kapustin Yar testing range in Russia, a known launch site for "Oreshnik" missiles.
CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE: KHARKIV POWER/HEAT SEVERE DAMAGE (1445Z, Mayor Terekhov/Colonelcassad, HIGH): A Russian strike on the Industrialnyi district of Kharkiv has caused "very significant" damage to systems providing heat and electricity; official reports indicate repairs will not be rapid.
TACTICAL BUILDUP: SLOVIANSK DIRECTION (1440Z, 81st OAMB, HIGH): The 81st Separate Airmobile Brigade reports a daily worsening situation near Dronivka, with RF forces accumulating reserves and deploying new anti-tank (PTD) units.
INTELLIGENCE ALERT: NPP SUBSTATIONS AT RISK (1447Z, Zelenskiy/HUR, HIGH): Ukrainian intelligence (HUR) has identified Russian preparations for strikes specifically targeting power substations that service nuclear power plants (NPPs).
DIPLOMATIC MISSION: DELEGATION IN D.C. (1450Z, Zelenskyy/Dnipropetrovska OVA, HIGH): A high-level delegation (Umerov, Budanov, Arakhamia) has arrived in the US; initial reports on meetings are expected by evening Kyiv time.
Operational picture (by sector)
Sloviansk/Siversk Axis: RF activity is intensifying near Dronivka. The deployment of anti-tank units suggests RF expectation of Ukrainian armored counter-attacks or a shift to a more deliberate, reinforced offensive posture in this sector.
Kharkiv Sector: The city's energy resilience is critically compromised following the Industralnyi district strike. This aligns with the "zero redundancy" status of the national grid.
Southern Axis: Persistent drone threats remain over Zaporizhzhia (arriving from the NE). Tactical aviation activity remains high on the eastern flank (1452Z).
Strategic Rear (RF): Ukraine continues its "asymmetric deep strike" campaign, shifting focus from oil/logistics to high-value missile testing and launch infrastructure (Kapustin Yar).
IPB ANALYSIS
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield is currently characterized by a Russian shift toward "infrastructure decapitation" while maintaining localized pressure in the Donbas.
Battlefield Geometry: The focus near Dronivka suggests a Russian intent to press the Siverskyi Donets line more aggressively to threaten the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration from the north.
Environmental Factors: Extreme winter conditions (noted in President's brief, 1447Z) are being weaponized via the systematic destruction of Kharkiv's heating grid, likely to trigger internal displacement and degrade rear-area logistics.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Course of Action: RF is prioritizing precision strikes on energy nodes that support NPPs to bypass direct nuclear escalation while achieving a total grid collapse.
Tactical Adaptations: RF aviation is showcasing increased precision with Unified Gliding Munition (UMPK) systems, claiming multiple direct hits on hardened targets (1458Z).
Logistics/Sustainment: The accumulation of reserves near Dronivka indicates the RF "Zapad" or "Tsentr" groups are rotating fresh units to maintain the tempo of the winter offensive.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Posture: UAF is maintaining an active defense in the Sloviansk sector (81st OAMB) while utilizing long-range UAV assets to disrupt RF strategic missile capabilities (Kapustin Yar).
Resource Constraints: The arrival of the Umerov/Budanov mission in Washington highlights an urgent requirement for AD (Air Defense) interceptors and grid-stabilization equipment.
Tactical Success: Successful engagement of RF infantry via FPV drones near Dronivka continues to provide localized delays to the RF buildup.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Strategic Narrative: President Zelenskyy is framing the NPP substation threat as a global security issue to maximize leverage during the Washington visit.
Enemy Propaganda: RF sources (Colonelcassad) are amplifying the "hopelessness" of Kharkiv's infrastructure situation to undermine civilian morale.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will launch a massed missile/drone strike within 24-72 hours specifically targeting NPP-linked substations as predicted by HUR, synchronized with intensified ground assaults in the Dronivka-Siversk sector.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A successful strike on NPP substations leads to an emergency shutdown of reactors, resulting in a nationwide "Black Start" scenario during peak winter temperatures, coinciding with a mechanized breakthrough toward Sloviansk.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High probability of sustained Shahed/UAV activity over Zaporizhzhia and Sumy to fix AD assets.
High probability of tactical aviation (KAB/UMPK) strikes along the Sloviansk-Siversk line.
Medium probability of official US statements regarding the Ukrainian delegation's requests.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Kapustin Yar BDA: Need satellite imagery to verify the effectiveness of the UAV strike. Did it disrupt "Oreshnik" launch capabilities or hit secondary support structures?
[HIGH] Dronivka RF Composition: Identify the specific units being moved into the Dronivka sector. Are these "Storm-Z" attrition units or specialized mechanized reserves?
[MEDIUM] NPP Grid Integrity: Technical assessment required on the redundancy of substations identified by HUR to prioritize the deployment of mobile AD assets.
CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT:
Kharkiv Strike Damage: HIGH (Official city reports).
Sloviansk/Dronivka Buildup: HIGH (Combat unit reports).
Kapustin Yar Strike: MEDIUM (Awaiting visual confirmation/BDA).
