ZNPP LOCAL CEASEFIRE (0830Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО/IAEA, HIGH): IAEA confirms a localized cessation of hostilities at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) to allow for critical repairs to damaged power lines.
RF CAPTURE OF PRYLUKY CONFIRMED (0845Z, Два майора, HIGH): Video evidence from drone footage confirms elements of the "Vostok" Group have secured Pryluky (Zaporizhzhia), validating earlier reports and solidifying the tactical breach.
RF CLAIMED ADVANCE IN KHARKIV (0859Z, MoD Russia, MEDIUM): The RF "Sever" Group (9th Motorized Rifle Regiment) claims the "liberation" of Dvurechanskoye (Dvorichanske) in the Kharkiv region.
FINNISH MILITARY AID (0831Z, Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH): Finland has officially approved its 31st defense aid package to Ukraine, valued at €98 million.
ODESA ENERGY STRIKE (0851Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH): Overnight RF strikes targeted energy infrastructure in the Odesa region; emergency repairs are underway.
WIDESPREAD EMERGENCY OUTAGES (0840Z, Ukrenergo, HIGH): Emergency power shutdowns have been implemented in multiple regions due to grid instability, with Kyiv remaining the most critical zone.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Orikhiv):
Exploitation Phase: Following the capture of Pryluky (0845Z), RF forces are conducting active airstrikes on Zaliznychne, Ternuvate, and Rizdvyanka (0843Z). This indicates an expansion of the fire corridor to protect the northern flank of their advance.
Defensive Attrition: UAF Defense Forces of the South report the destruction of over 300 personnel, 1 tank, and 2 AFVs in the last 24 hours (0855Z).
Critical Infrastructure: The IAEA-brokered ceasefire at ZNPP (0830Z) is a vital tactical pause but remains fragile; its primary utility is stabilizing the regional grid rather than halting the RF offensive toward Stepnohirsk.
2. Eastern Axis (Donbas/Pokrovsk):
High-Intensity Clashes: GSZSU reports significant engagement yesterday across the Pokrovsk sector (Shakhove, Myrnohrad, Rodynske) and Kostiantynivka direction (0843Z). The RF remains in a high-tempo offensive posture despite reported losses.
Kupyansk/Lyman: Clashes continue near Petropavlivka and Novovodyane. The frontline remains fluid as RF forces attempt to consolidate gains near Kupyansk.
3. Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Sumy):
Tactical Shift: The reported capture of Dvurechanskoye (0859Z) by the RF "Sever" Group suggests a renewed effort to pressure the Oskil River line from the north.
UAV Activity: RF 83rd Regiment is heavily utilizing UAV-directed fire in the Kharkiv direction (0846Z).
Border Stability: UAF repelled two Russian assaults in the Kursk/Sumy border region (0843Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Multi-Vector Pressure: The RF is simultaneously exploiting the Zaporizhzhia breach while opening or reinforcing tactical axes in Kharkiv (Dvorichanske). This is likely intended to prevent UAF from shifting reserves to the deteriorating Southern front.
Aviation Integration: The heavy use of airstrikes (0843Z) suggests RF has established localized air superiority or is successfully suppressing UAF AD near the FLOT.
Internal Security Operations: RF reporting of "prevented terror attacks" in Khabarovsk and KBR (0845Z, TASS) may be used to justify further domestic mobilization or internal crackdowns.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Sustainment: The €98M Finnish aid package (0831Z) provides essential mid-term replenishment, though immediate tactical needs on the H-08 corridor remain acute.
Defensive Reorganization: UAF continues to trade space for time in the Pryluky sector while maintaining a high attrition rate for RF mechanized assets.
Civil Management: New curfew regulations and movement rules (0848Z, RBC-Ukraine) indicate a tightening of internal security to prevent sabotage in energy-deprived urban centers.
Information environment / disinformation
Kyiv Evacuation Narrative: Russian mil-bloggers (Kotenok, 0830Z) continue to amplify the false claim that Mayor Klitschko is calling for an evacuation. This is a persistent DISINFORMATION campaign targeting civilian morale.
ZNPP Narrative: Russian sources may attempt to frame the IAEA ceasefire as a "humanitarian gesture" to mask tactical regrouping.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will continue mechanized pushes from Pryluky toward the H-08 highway while using UAV-corrected artillery in Kharkiv to fix UAF units.
MDCOA: RF breaks the ZNPP localized ceasefire prematurely once grid repairs are near completion to strike UAF engineers or capitalize on the tactical lull.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Dvorichanske Status: Verify the extent of RF control in Dvorichanske (Kharkiv) and if UAF maintains a presence on the western bank.
[HIGH] Odesa BDA: Assess the severity of the overnight strike on Odesa energy infrastructure and its impact on Southern Command's logistics.
[MEDIUM] 83rd Regiment UAV capabilities: Identify the specific UAV models used by the RF 83rd Regiment in Kharkiv to update EW jamming profiles.
IPB ANALYSIS
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is characterized by an RF transition from localized breakthroughs to a multi-theater offensive. The stabilization of the ZNPP through an IAEA ceasefire provides a temporary reprieve for the energy grid but does not alleviate the mechanized pressure on the Zaporizhzhia FLOT.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
The RF "Vostok" and "Sever" groups are showing high coordination. The seizure of Pryluky allows for a direct assault on the Stepnohirsk-Orikhiv line. The RF is increasingly relying on aviation and UAV "fire bubbles" to mask mechanized movements.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
UAF is maintaining defensive integrity in the East (Pokrovsk) but is being forced into a mobile defense in the South. The arrival of international aid (Finland) is positive but the immediate energy crisis in Kyiv (0839Z) creates a significant secondary "home front" burden on leadership.
4. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
MLCOA: RF focuses on the H-08 highway near Stepnohirsk to isolate UAF forward positions.
MDCOA: A coordinated RF breakthrough in the Kharkiv sector (Dvorichanske axis) coinciding with a renewed missile campaign against Odesa/Kyiv to trigger a systemic collapse of the energy-defense nexus.
RECOMMENDATIONS:
Tactical: Deploy mobile AD assets to the Zaliznychne-Ternuvate corridor to counter the surge in RF aviation.
Operational: Monitor the ZNPP "ceasefire zone" with ELINT/SIGINT to detect RF troop movements masked by the humanitarian pause.
Strategic Comms: Explicitly link the Finnish aid package to frontline successes to counter the "abandonment" narrative being pushed by RF disinformation channels.
