Situation Report

Situation Update (0729Z 17 JAN 26)

Key updates since last sitrep

• KAB STRIKES ON DNIPROPETROVSK (0704Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has launched guided aerial bombs (KABs) targeting the Dnipropetrovsk region, marking a westward expansion of aerial suppression from the Donbas.
• SHAHED THREAT TO ZAPORIZHZHIA (0708Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): One-way attack (OWA) UAVs (Shaheds) are currently inbound to Zaporizhzhia from the south, coinciding with a widening ground breach in the sector.
• POKROVSK SECTOR INTENSITY (0716Z, UAF GenStaff/Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH): Official reporting confirms 49 of the last 24 hours' 164 combat engagements (approx. 30%) occurred in the Pokrovsk direction, confirming it as the primary kinetic center of gravity.
• MYRNOHRAD COUNTER-STRIKE (0723Z, RBC-Ukraine, MEDIUM): Ukrainian Airborne Assault Forces (DShV) successfully destroyed a building occupied by RF forces in the vicinity of Myrnohrad.
• KYIV HEATING CRISIS (0726Z, RBC-Ukraine/Klitschko, HIGH): 50 residential buildings in Kyiv remain without heat following the January 9 infrastructure strikes, highlighting long-term degradation of the capital's utility resilience.
• US "PEACE COUNCIL" REPORTS (0702Z, Sternenko/FT, UNCONFIRMED/LOW): Reports circulating regarding a US-led initiative to create a "Peace Council" involving Russia.

Operational picture (by sector)

1. Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Stepnohirsk): The threat profile has shifted to an integrated air-ground assault. Following the loss of Zhovtneve (reported 16 Jan), the RF is now utilizing Shahed UAVs (0708Z) and tactical aviation (0712Z) to suppress UAF reserves and air defense. Russian volunteer groups are specifically fundraising for equipment targeting this front (0704Z, Dva Mayora), suggesting an intent to sustain the momentum of the Stepnohirsk breach toward the H-08 highway.

2. Eastern Axis (Pokrovsk/Donbas): This remains the highest-intensity sector with 49 documented engagements in 24 hours (0716Z). UAF has demonstrated tactical counter-offensive capabilities with the destruction of an RF-occupied building in Myrnohrad (0723Z). However, the sheer volume of attacks indicates an RF "meat-grinder" approach intended to exhaust Ukrainian infantry and ammunition stocks.

3. North-Eastern Axis (Sumy/Kharkiv/Dnipropetrovsk): The aerial threat has expanded. While Sumy remains under KAB pressure (previous sitrep), the 0704Z launch of KABs on Dnipropetrovsk indicates the RF is extending its "glide bomb umbrella" further into the Ukrainian rear to disrupt rail and road logistics supporting the Pokrovsk and Zaporizhzhia fronts.

4. Rear Areas (Kyiv): The strategic "Energy War" impact is persistent. The inability to restore heating to 50 buildings in Kyiv over a week after a strike (0726Z) suggests that specialized repair parts or technician availability are becoming critical constraints.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

• TACTICAL ADAPTATION (AD): RF volunteer units are deploying specialized "PVO kits" including kungs and rotating turrets (0702Z, Colonelcassad). ASSESSMENT: This is a direct response to UAF FPV drone superiority, aimed at creating mobile, low-cost air defense bubbles for frontline logistics.
• AVIATION SUPREMACY: The synchronized activity of tactical aviation in the south-east (0712Z) and KAB launches (0704Z) suggests the RF is maintaining a high sortie rate to compensate for the lack of significant mechanized breakthroughs in the Pokrovsk sector.
• LOGISTICAL FOCUS: RF "Z-collections" are prioritizing the Zaporizhzhia front, indicating this is the current priority for the RF Southern Group of Forces (0704Z).

Friendly activity (UAF)

• ELITE UNIT ENGAGEMENT: The 148th Artillery Brigade (DShV) and other airborne elements are actively conducting precision strikes on RF consolidation points (Myrnohrad, 0723Z), serving as a "fire brigade" to stabilize sagging sectors.
• STRATEGIC COMMS: National command is maintaining focus on morale through synchronized "Minutes of Silence" (0700Z) across all state agencies to maintain social cohesion during the winter energy crisis.

Information environment / disinformation

• PEACE TALKS NARRATIVE: Coordinated reports on US "Peace Councils" (0702Z) and Stoltenberg’s "dialogue" comments (0725Z) are being amplified by pro-Russian channels. ASSESSMENT: This is likely a "Reflexive Control" operation designed to create a sense of inevitability regarding negotiations and to weaken Western legislative support for new aid packages.
• OCCUPATION PROPAGANDA: Vladimir Saldo’s TASS interview (0713Z) framing European leaders as "hawks" is a standard narrative aimed at driving a wedge between European populations and their pro-Ukrainian governments.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• MLCOA: Continued Shahed and KAB strikes on Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro to isolate the Southern front from reinforcements while RF ground forces attempt to widen the Zhovtneve breach.
• MDCOA: A large-scale coordinated missile/UAV strike on Dnipro’s remaining energy nodes, synchronized with a mechanized push from Zhovtneve toward Stepnohirsk to achieve an operational breakthrough.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. [HIGH] BDA of Myrnohrad Strike: Confirm RF casualty count and unit identification to determine if the strike hit a localized group or a command node.
2. [CRITICAL] PVO Kit Efficacy: Assess the technical capabilities of the new RF mobile PVO kits (0702Z) to determine if they significantly degrade UAF FPV/Mavic operations.
3. [MEDIUM] FT Report Verification: Authenticate the "Peace Council" claim to determine if this is a genuine policy shift or an RF-origin disinformation plant.

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IPB ANALYSIS

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW The conflict has reached a high-attrition equilibrium in the East (Pokrovsk) while the South (Zaporizhzhia) remains the most volatile sector due to recent RF tactical gains. The expansion of KAB strikes to Dnipropetrovsk indicates an RF intent to interdict the entire logistics chain from the rear to the FLOT.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS The RF is shifting from pure mechanized assaults to "Integrated Fire & Maneuver," using KABs to clear buildings and specialized mobile AD to protect their own infantry. The reliance on volunteer funding for Zaporizhzhia suggests that formal MoD logistics may still be struggling to keep pace with the high loss rates of the current offensive.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES UAF remains reactive but effective at the tactical level (Myrnohrad). The primary constraint is the "Zero Redundancy" energy state, which limits the industrial capacity to repair equipment and increases the logistical burden of supporting civilian populations in winter.

4. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

• MLCOA: RF will likely attempt to seize Stepnohirsk within 48-72 hours to anchor their southern flank.
• MDCOA: RF utilizes the chaos of heating failures and energy strikes to launch a multi-axis offensive involving Transnistria (hybrid) and a renewed push toward the H-08 highway.

RECOMMENDATIONS:

1. Tactical: Prioritize the destruction of mobile PVO kits in the Zaporizhzhia sector to maintain UAF drone dominance.
2. Logistical: Accelerate the deployment of decentralized heating/power generation ("Pulse" platform) to the 50 buildings in Kyiv to mitigate domestic instability.
3. Information: Strategic communications should highlight the Myrnohrad success to counter the "inevitability of negotiation" narrative circulating in the Western press.

//REPORT ENDS//