Situation Update (0629Z 17 JAN 26)
Key updates since last sitrep
- ZAPORIZHZHIA INFRASTRUCTURE STRIKE (0614Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA/Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH): Enemy forces conducted a morning strike on an infrastructure facility in Zaporizhzhia. A fire is confirmed on-site; damage assessment is ongoing.
- TACTICAL AVIATION ALERT - NE (0620Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Significant activity of Russian tactical aviation detected in the North-Eastern direction. High risk of Kh-59/69 guided missile launches.
- MULTI-VECTOR UAV THREAT (0604Z-0619Z, UAF Air Force, MEDIUM): New UAV groups identified: one approaching Kharkiv from the South (0604Z), one approaching Zaporizhzhia from the North-East (0607Z), and one approaching Sumy from the North (0619Z).
- DIPLOMATIC SPECULATION - "PEACE COUNCIL" (0629Z, FT/Operativnyi ZSU, LOW): Reports indicate the incoming Trump administration is considering a "Peace Council" model for Ukraine, potentially mirroring Gaza-style oversight; currently unconfirmed by official diplomatic channels.
- ARMENIAN LEGAL SHIFT (0607Z, TASS, MEDIUM): Armenian appeals court returned Samvel Karapetyan to house arrest; significant for regional CSTO-aligned internal stability but low immediate impact on UAF operations.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Stepnohirsk):
The sector remains the most kinetic. Following the confirmed loss of Zhovtneve (from previous daily report), the RF has transitioned from ground exploitation to targeted infrastructure destruction. The 0614Z strike in Zaporizhzhia city suggests a deliberate effort to disrupt the rear logistics and energy supply supporting the Orikhiv and Stepnohirsk defensive lines.
2. North-Eastern Axis (Kharkiv/Sumy):
The threat has shifted from overnight saturation to tactical aviation engagement. The activity reported at 0620Z likely targets UAF reserves or command nodes in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions. UAVs entering Kharkiv from the South (0604Z) indicate a complex flight path designed to bypass northern AD screens.
3. Eastern Axis (Kupyansk):
Kupyansk remains under extreme pressure following the RF MoD claims of control and Ministerial inspection. No new ground updates in the last 30 minutes, but tactical aviation in the NE (0620Z) provides continued close air support for RF "mopping up" operations.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
- AERIAL TACTICS: The enemy is utilizing a "rolling strike" model. After the massive overnight UAV wave (115 units), they are now using tactical aviation to strike while AD crews are managing the remaining low-speed UAVs (Shahed/Gerbera) approaching Kharkiv and Sumy.
- LOGISTICS TARGETING: The strike on Zaporizhzhia infrastructure (0614Z) confirms the RF focus on degrading the "Pulse" decentralized energy platform and rail-linked industry in the South.
- FORCE ADAPTATION: Deployment of "Yezh" (Hedgehog) armor on tanks (noted in daily report) remains a primary tactical challenge for UAF FPV operators in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
Friendly activity (UAF)
- AD INTERCEPTION: UAF Air Force and Mobile Fire Groups are actively tracking and engaging the new UAV threats across three oblasts.
- CIVIL RESILIENCE: Launch of the "Zero Course" educational initiative (0628Z) for university admission indicates a focus on maintaining social continuity despite the energy crisis and frontline pressure.
- STRATEGIC DIPLOMACY: High-level delegation (Budanov/Umerov) continues engagements in Washington to counter emerging "Peace Council" narratives and secure long-range strike capabilities.
Information environment / disinformation
- NATO FRAGMENTATION NARRATIVE: RF channels (Operatsiya Z, 0625Z) are heavily amplifying a Berliner Zeitung report regarding French opposition to NATO. This is a clear attempt to signal a breakdown in Western unity following the US election results.
- PRO-WAR CONTENT GENERATION: Sources like "Arkhangel Spetsnaz" (0600Z) and "Colonelcassad" (0603Z) are flooding the space with drone footage to project an image of technical superiority and "cleaning" operations, likely to mask high Russian casualty rates (+1,130).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- MLCOA: Continued tactical aviation strikes in the NE (Sumy/Kharkiv) utilizing guided glide bombs (KABs) or missiles (Kh-59). Likely follow-up ground assaults from Zhovtneve toward the H-08 highway.
- MDCOA: A coordinated strike combining the remaining UAVs with a "double-tap" ballistic strike on the Zaporizhzhia infrastructure site to target first responders and maximize grid damage.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [CRITICAL] Zaporizhzhia BDA: Determine if the 0614Z strike hit energy transmission, water treatment, or military logistics to assess regional sustainment.
- [HIGH] Kupyansk FLOT: Verify the current extent of UAF presence in Western Kupyansk; assess if the Oskil River bridgeheads are still viable.
- [MEDIUM] French NATO Stance: Monitor official Quai d'Orsay statements to debunk or confirm the Berliner Zeitung/RF claims regarding NATO withdrawal discussions.
IPB ANALYSIS (IPB 2.22)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield geometry is currently stressed in the South. The loss of Zhovtneve has created a salient that the RF is now supporting with air-to-ground strikes on Zaporizhzhia city. The weather remains conducive for both UAV operations and tactical aviation, though ground mobility may be restricted by seasonal mud/melt in the East.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
The RF is successfully integrating its "Zapad" (West) and "Vostok" (East) groupings. The inspection by Belousov in Kupyansk signals a shift of focus toward the Lyman/Izium axis. The use of tactical aviation (0620Z) suggests the RF believes UAF AD density in the NE may be temporarily reduced following the overnight mass-UAV engagement.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
UAF remains in a defensive posture, prioritizing the protection of the energy grid and major logistics hubs (Zaporizhzhia/Pavlohrad). The absence of key leadership (Budanov/Umerov) places higher operational responsibility on regional commanders to manage the current "rolling" strike phase.
4. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
- MLCOA: Expansion of the Zhovtneve breach. RF forces will likely attempt to seize high ground overlooking Stepnohirsk within 12 hours.
- MDCOA: RF uses the tactical aviation activity in the NE as a diversion for a naval-launched missile strike from the Black Sea targeting the Southern Command's C2 centers.
RECOMMENDATIONS:
- Tactical: Immediate prioritization of EW and MANPADS assets to the Sumy-Kharkiv corridor to counter the 0620Z aviation threat.
- Operational: Accelerate BDA and emergency repairs in Zaporizhzhia; redirect power from decentralized "Pulse" nodes to maintain rail logistics.
- Strategic: Issue a formal rebuttal to RF-amplified reports of NATO fragmentation to stabilize domestic and partner morale.
//REPORT ENDS//
