Situation Report

Situation Update (0300Z 17 JAN 26)

Key updates since last sitrep

• DEPLOYMENT OF FIBER-OPTIC FPV DRONES (0233Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH): Footage confirms RF use of "KVN" fiber-optic FPV drones against UAF infantry northeast of Stepnohirsk. This indicates a significant tactical shift to EW-resistant loitering munitions in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
• KINETIC ACTIVITY IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (0241Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration (OVA) reports multiple explosions within the oblast. This follows earlier reports of UAV movements and suggests a transition to missile or heavy rocket artillery strikes.
• REDUCTION IN REAR THREAT LEVEL (0234Z, Artamonov, HIGH): Lipetsk (RF) Governor announced the cancellation of the "yellow" security level, suggesting a temporary cessation of UAF long-range drone threats in that specific corridor of the Russian rear.
• AMPLIFIED GREENLAND NARRATIVE (0231Z, TASS, MEDIUM): Russian state media is expanding the "Greenland friction" narrative, now citing the territory's future habitability due to climate change. This supports the ongoing hybrid effort to distract NATO partners (Denmark/US).

Operational picture (by sector)

1. Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia): The tactical situation northeast of Stepnohirsk has worsened. The introduction of fiber-optic (wired) FPV drones (0233Z) suggests that UAF tactical electronic warfare (EW) "bubbles" are being bypassed. These drones do not rely on radio frequencies for control or video, rendering standard jammers ineffective. The explosions reported at 0241Z likely target UAF reserve concentrations attempting to plug the breach created by the fall of Zhovtneve.

2. Northern Axis & Russian Rear: The cancellation of alerts in Lipetsk (0234Z) indicates that the "Shahed" swarms or UAF drone strikes reported in previous periods have either been neutralized or have passed through the sector. This may allow RF to stabilize logistics flow through Lipetsk toward the Eastern Axis.

3. Strategic Rear / Kyiv: No new kinetic strikes reported in the last 30 minutes. The "voltage drops" (0153Z) remain the primary indicator of grid instability, potentially linked to the explosions now being reported in the Zaporizhzhia energy hub (0241Z).

Enemy activity / threat assessment

• TACTICAL ADAPTATION (TECH): The RF is now operationally deploying fiber-optic FPV drones ("KVN"). Unlike standard FPVs, these are immune to current UAF frequency-jamming suites. This explains the high lethality reported against infantry groups northeast of Stepnohirsk (0233Z).
• HYBRID OPS: RF is intensifying the information operation regarding Greenland. By framing the territory as a "future habitable zone" (0231Z), they are attempting to insert long-term geopolitical stakes into the current US-Denmark diplomatic friction, aimed at diluting Western focus on the Zaporizhzhia breach.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• FORCE DISPOSITION: UAF infantry in the Stepnohirsk-Orikhiv sector are facing extreme attrition from high-precision, EW-immune drone strikes.
• DEFENSIVE POSTURE: Regional authorities (OVA) are actively monitoring and reporting strikes (0241Z), indicating a high state of alert for civil defense and emergency response as the energy grid remains under pressure.

Information environment / disinformation

• COGNITIVE TARGETING: The TASS report (0231Z) regarding Greenland is a "distraction-in-depth" tactic. It leverages the previous report of US-Denmark "red lines" (0221Z) to create a narrative of NATO fragmentation over non-Ukrainian issues.
• BATTLEFIELD MESSAGING: RF sources (Colonelcassad) are using high-quality video of "KVN" drone strikes to degrade UAF morale by demonstrating the futility of standard EW protection.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• MLCOA: RF will likely utilize "KVN" drones to systematically strip UAF's tactical EW cover and infantry screens northeast of Stepnohirsk, followed by a mechanized push to sever the H-08 highway.
• MDCOA: A coordinated "Dark-Start" strike on Zaporizhzhia’s remaining energy sub-stations, utilizing the explosions reported at 0241Z as a precursor to a larger missile wave.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. [CRITICAL] Fiber-Optic Range: Determine the maximum wire-spool length of the "KVN" drones to establish the "safe" standoff distance for UAF command posts and UGV staging areas.
2. [HIGH] BDA Zaporizhzhia: Immediate assessment of the 0241Z explosions. Identification of targets (Logistics vs. Energy) is required to predict the next RF maneuver.

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IPB ANALYSIS (IPB 2.15)

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW The battlefield geometry is shifting from a "war of frequencies" to a "war of physical links" in the Zaporizhzhia sector. The loss of Zhovtneve is being exploited not just with mass, but with specialized technology that negates UAF's primary tactical defense (EW).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS The RF "Zapad" and "Vostok" groups are coordinating kinetic strikes with sophisticated info-ops. The cancellation of alerts in Lipetsk suggests the RF is successfully managing its internal security while maintaining an offensive tempo in the south. The use of fiber-optic drones indicates a well-supplied specialized drone unit is operating in the Stepnohirsk area.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES UAF units in Zaporizhzhia are highly vulnerable. The reliance on EW for infantry protection is currently a liability against "KVN" class drones. Ground forces require immediate kinetic countermeasures (e.g., shotguns, physical nets, or hard-kill active protection) as soft-kill EW is ineffective.

4. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

• MLCOA: Continued expansion of the Stepnohirsk breach. RF will target UAF logistics UGVs (noted in 0203Z report) using the same "KVN" drones to isolate the frontline.
• MDCOA: RF may attempt a localized paratrooper/air-assault drop behind UAF lines near Orikhiv, supported by the suppression of AD and EW by fiber-optic assets.

RECOMMENDATIONS:

1. Tactical: Pivot from EW-based defense to physical concealment and "hard-kill" drone interception in the Stepnohirsk sector.
2. Technical: Urgent requirement for Signal Intelligence (SIGINT) to identify the launch points of fiber-optic drones, as they have a limited tether range and operators must be relatively close to the FLOT.
3. Strategic Comms: Counter the "Greenland habitability" narrative by emphasizing that RF environmental claims are a diversion from active war crimes in Zaporizhzhia.

//REPORT ENDS//