Situation Report

Situation Update (2359Z 16 JAN 26)

Key updates since last sitrep

• NORTHERN KINETIC ENGAGEMENT - KYIV (2340Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): Multiple explosions reported within Kyiv city limits following the terminal approach of UAV groups. Kinetic activity indicates active Air Defense (AD) engagement or impacts.
• NORTHWESTERN VECTOR SHIFT (2336Z, Vanyok, MEDIUM): A group of four UAVs (Shahed-type) altered course from the Hostomel axis toward the Irpin/Bucha/Kyiv urban corridor.
• AD ATTRITION/SUCCESS (2347Z, Vanyok, LOW): Reports indicate the northwestern UAV group has been reduced from four to two units currently maneuvering between Borodyanka and Hostomel.
• VYSHHOROD THREAT (2353Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): A new or remaining UAV group is on a direct vector toward the Vyshhorod-Kyiv axis, threatening the Kyiv Hydroelectric Power Plant and northern infrastructure.
• KYIV AIR ALERT (2333Z, KMVA, HIGH): Full-scale air alert remains active for the capital region as multi-vector threats converge.

Operational picture (by sector)

1. Northern / Kyiv Axis (The "Capital Pincer"): The threat to Kyiv has evolved from a dual-vector approach to a multi-pronged saturation.

• North-Western Axis: UAVs transiting the Chernobyl/Zhytomyr vector (reported 2320Z) have now reached the Dymer-Borodyanka-Hostomel line (2336Z-2341Z). This group is actively maneuvering, likely attempting to identify gaps in the AD umbrella or bypass mobile fire groups (MFGs) in the Irpin/Bucha forests.
• Northern Axis: The movement toward Vyshhorod (2353Z) is a high-priority threat. Vyshhorod serves as the northern anchor for Kyiv’s defense and critical energy infrastructure (HPP).
• Eastern Axis (Baseline): The eastern approach via Brovary (2328Z) remains an active threat corridor, though recent messaging focuses on the northern/northwestern escalation.

2. Eastern Axis (Kharkiv/Donbas):

• No new updates since 2326Z; the situation over Pechenihy/Savyntsi remains critical as UAF attempts to secure logistics for the Oskil River bridgehead.

3. Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia):

• Baseline remains active; no new tactical movements reported since the 1500Z daily summary confirmed the loss of Zhovtneve.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

• AERIAL TACTICS (SATURATION): The RF is utilizing "orbiting" tactics between Borodyanka and Hostomel (2347Z). By circling drones in the suburban perimeter, they force UAF AD to reveal positions and expend limited munitions before the final terminal dash to targets in Kyiv.
• COMMAND & CONTROL (C2): The precision of course changes (2336Z) suggests real-time or pre-programmed waypoint adjustment to exploit the terrain (riverbeds/forests) north of the capital.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• AIR DEFENSE ENGAGEMENT: UAF has successfully intercepted at least 50% of the northwestern drone group (4 down to 2) according to field reports (2347Z). MFGs are likely operating at high intensity in the Bucha/Irpin sector.
• CIVIL DEFENSE: KMVA and national media are maintaining high-frequency alerts, ensuring civilian population remains in shelters during the kinetic phase (2340Z).

Information environment / disinformation

• REAL-TIME TRACKING: Tactical Telegram channels (e.g., Vanyok) are providing high-fidelity, granular data that corroborates official UA Air Force warnings. This creates a highly transparent but high-stress information environment for the civilian population.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• MLCOA: Continued UAV saturation strikes through 0300Z, specifically targeting the Vyshhorod-Kyiv infrastructure corridor. A "second wave" from the North (Chernihiv/Sumy) is highly likely once AD resources are committed to the current Hostomel/Brovary groups.
• MDCOA: Transition from UAV harassment to a coordinated missile strike (Iskander or Kh-101) targeting the Kyiv energy hub while MFGs are distracted by the remaining "Mopeds" (UAVs) in the Borodyanka sector.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. [CRITICAL] Vyshhorod Status: Immediate BDA or visual confirmation of impacts near the Kyiv HPP.
2. [HIGH] Eastern Vector Status: Awaiting updates on the Brovary drone group; silence in recent messages may indicate either successful interception or radio silence/low-altitude penetration.
3. [MEDIUM] 183rd AA Regiment: Monitor for any movement of this RF unit in the South; its potential forward deployment remains the primary indicator for a mechanized breakout toward the H-08.

---

IPB ANALYSIS (IPB 2.9)

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW Battlefield geometry is currently dominated by an aerial siege of the Kyiv "AD Bubble." The RF has successfully penetrated the outer perimeter and is now engaging in the intermediate zone (15-30km from the city center) via the Hostomel/Borodyanka axis.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS The reduction of the drone group from 4 to 2 (2347Z) indicates that the RF is willing to accept 50% attrition to keep the capital's AD engaged. This "disposable" use of UAVs suggests they are functioning as decoys for a more significant kinetic event or are intended to deplete AD interceptor stocks (e.g., IRIS-T/NASAMS) which are at "zero redundancy."

3. FRIENDLY FORCES UAF demonstrates high tactical proficiency in the Irpin/Bucha sector, but the convergence of threats from Vyshhorod (North), Hostomel (NW), and Brovary (East) is testing the limits of simultaneous target tracking and engagement.

4. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

• MLCOA: RF will attempt to strike the Vyshhorod electrical substation or the HPP infrastructure before 0200Z to trigger a regional blackout, facilitating a follow-on missile strike under the cover of "darkness" and AD saturation.
• MDCOA: The current maneuvers in the NW are a feint to draw MFGs away from the M-06 (Zhytomyr Highway) logistics route, which remains vulnerable to the Chernobyl-originating UAV group.

//REPORT ENDS//