Situation Update (2129Z 16 JAN 26)
Key updates since last sitrep
- ENERGY SABOTAGE - SERPUKHOV, RUSSIA (2124Z, Operativno ZSU, MEDIUM): A substation is reportedly on fire in Serpukhov, Moscow Oblast (approx. 100km from Moscow), causing a partial blackout. Visual evidence suggests a targeted strike or sabotage.
- AERIAL BOMBARDMENT - ZAPORIZHZHIA (2109Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Multiple launches of KAB (guided aerial bombs) targeting the Zaporizhzhia region. This follows the RF seizure of Zhovtneve earlier today.
- TACTICAL ENGAGEMENT - POKROVSK SECTOR (2109Z, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM): A 3-man RF infantry element attempting to establish a foothold in a village near Pokrovsk was neutralized by the "Hostri Kartuzy" drone unit.
- REAR AREA DRONE THREAT (2110Z, Sternenko, MEDIUM): Elevated drone activity/threat alerts across 9+ Russian regions (Kursk, Rostov, Voronezh, etc.) and occupied Crimea/Luhansk, indicating a large-scale UAF asymmetric effort.
- RF COUNTER-DRONE SUCCESS (2115Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Footage released by RF-affiliated sources (@warriorofnorth) claims successful drone strikes against UAF transport vehicles. UNCONFIRMED location.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia / Crimea):
- Zaporizhzhia: RF aviation is heavily utilizing KABs (2109Z) to suppress UAF defenses. This is likely preparatory fire to exploit the breach at Zhovtneve and facilitate the push toward the H-08 highway identified in the daily report.
- Crimea: Continued drone threat alerts (2110Z) following the 2054Z Sevastopol air raid alert suggest a multi-wave UAF operation against the Black Sea Fleet’s logistics.
2. Eastern Axis (Pokrovsk / Donbas):
- Pokrovsk: RF continues small-unit infiltration tactics. The neutralization of a 3-man squad by UAF drones (2109Z) confirms that the front remains porous, relying heavily on UAF FPV/ISR to prevent RF from establishing forward observation posts.
3. Russian Strategic Rear:
- Serpukhov (Moscow Oblast): The substation fire (2124Z) represents a significant extension of the UAF "deep strike" capability into Moscow's immediate periphery. This is a direct symmetric response to the ongoing energy crisis in Kyiv (2058Z).
- Multi-Region Drone Activity: Alerts across Samara and Ulyanovsk (2110Z) indicate UAF targets may include industrial or aviation infrastructure deep in the RF interior.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
- Aviation Superiority (Zaporizhzhia): RF is successfully leveraging KABs to offset UAF ground resilience. The frequency of these strikes suggests a high "sensor-to-cockpit" integration in the Southern sector.
- Tactical Reconnaissance-Strike: RF @warriorofnorth units are demonstrating improved FPV/Loitering Munition proficiency against UAF logistics/transport (2115Z), complicating UAF rotation and resupply.
- Infiltration Tactics: Small-unit probes (Pokrovsk, 2109Z) indicate RF is testing for gaps in UAF drone coverage to find routes for larger mechanized pushes.
Friendly activity (UAF)
- Asymmetric Deep Strikes: UAF is successfully targeting RF energy infrastructure (Serpukhov) to create political pressure on the Kremlin and divert RF internal security assets.
- Drone Dominance (Tactical): Units like "Hostri Kartuzy" remain the primary line of defense against RF infantry "leaking" through the FLOT.
- Strategic Resilience: Despite the energy failure in Kyiv, UAF command is maintaining a high tempo of offensive drone operations across the RF strategic rear.
Information environment / disinformation
- Energy War Narrative: UAF sources are rapidly amplifying the Serpukhov blackout (2124Z) to counter the domestic demoralization caused by the Kyiv heating crisis.
- Political Noise (LOW): Re-sharing of Trump's comments on Venezuela (2117Z) by UA outlets suggests an attempt to monitor shifts in US foreign policy, though it has no immediate tactical impact.
- RF Propaganda: RF channels are highlighting UAF transport losses (2115Z) to project an image of UAF logistical collapse.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- MLCOA: RF will launch a night-time mechanized push from Zhovtneve toward Stepnohirsk, supported by follow-on KAB strikes.
- MDCOA: RF utilizes the "confusion" (2118Z) and regional drone alerts to mask a major tactical surprise in the Pokrovsk or Kupyansk sectors.
- Strategic: Further UAF drone strikes on Russian electrical substations are highly likely as a tit-for-tat response to the freeze in Kyiv.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [CRITICAL] Serpukhov Cause: Determine if the substation fire was a kinetic strike (UAV) or internal sabotage.
- [HIGH] Zaporizhzhia KAB Targets: Identify if KABs are hitting front-line trenches or rear-area logistics nodes near Orikhiv.
- [MEDIUM] Transport Attrition: Quantify the impact of the RF @warriorofnorth drone strikes on UAF 5th Assault Brigade’s logistical sustainability.
IPB ANALYSIS (IPB 2.4)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield has expanded significantly into the Russian strategic rear (Serpukhov). While the Southern front is under intense aerial pressure (KABs), the conflict has transitioned into a "war of substations." The weather continues to dictate the pace of operations in Kyiv, while RF aviation exploits the clear but cold skies in the south.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
RF is pursuing a dual-track strategy: using heavy aviation (KABs) to grind down the Southern front while using mil-blogger channels to win the information war regarding UAF vehicle losses. The failure of the 3-man probe near Pokrovsk suggests RF infantry is still struggling with the UAF "drone bubble" at the tactical level.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
UAF is demonstrating a "defense-by-strike" posture. Unable to stop KABs via ground forces, UAF is striking Russian energy and logistics (Serpukhov, Sevastopol) to force a Russian recalibration. The tactical reliance on units like "Hostri Kartuzy" is high, but potentially vulnerable to the RF "Yezh" armor adaptations noted in earlier reports.
4. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
- MLCOA: Continued KAB saturation of Zaporizhzhia followed by a mechanized probe.
- MDCOA: A total grid collapse in Kyiv leading to civil unrest, synchronized with an RF propaganda blitz claiming "liberation" of the Southern H-08 corridor.
//REPORT ENDS//
