Situation Report

Situation Update (1830Z 16 JAN 26)

Key updates since last sitrep

• STRATEGIC STRIKE WARNING (1805Z, KMVA/Zelenskyy, HIGH): President Zelenskyy issued a formal warning that intelligence confirms Russia is preparing for new massive aerial strikes; current Ukrainian Air Defense (AD) interceptor stocks and systems are assessed as "insufficient."
• KHARKIV SECTOR EXPANSION (1817Z, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM): RF claims the capture of Novoplatonivka (Kharkiv region); however, UAF sources indicate the area remains contested with active military responses ongoing.
• OFFENSIVE MOMENTUM - DONBAS (1825Z-1828Z, Voenkor Kotenok, MEDIUM): Confirmed Russian offensive operations are expanding in the Krasnoliman (Lyman) and Konstantinovka directions, with the RF "South" Group of Forces actively pushing to exploit previous gains.
• DIPLOMATIC DECOUPLING (1824Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): The Ukrainian Embassy in Iran has officially suspended operations, likely a response to Iranian military support for RF and deteriorating regional security.
• LEGAL INTEGRATION (1805Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH): A new law permitting dual citizenship for Ukrainians with specific Western-aligned countries has entered into force, signaling deeper long-term integration with the Euro-Atlantic bloc.
• ZAPORIZHZHIA REAR DISRUPTION (1803Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): FSB reports the arrest of three individuals in occupied Zaporizhzhia for alleged espionage; simultaneously, RF Uragan MLRS struck a UAF deployment area in the Orekhov direction (1803Z, MoD Russia).
• AERIAL THREAT (1811Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Active Shahed UAV swarms are currently tracking toward Kropyvnytskyi.

Operational picture (by sector)

1. Eastern Axis (Kupyansk / Lyman / Donbas):

• Lyman/Krasnolimanske: RF forces have intensified pressure in this sector. Map data indicates a multi-pronged push to collapse the salient and threaten Svyatogorsk.
• Konstantinovka: The RF "South" Group is conducting high-intensity offensive operations. This suggests an attempt to bypass the heavily fortified Kramatorsk-Slovyansk line from the south.
• Kharkiv/Novoplatonivka: UNCONFIRMED RF claims of control (LOW confidence). UAF is currently engaging to prevent a stable RF foothold on the eastern bank of the Oskil reservoir south of Borova.

2. Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia):

• Orekhov Direction: RF is utilizing heavy rocket artillery (Uragan MLRS) to conduct interdiction strikes against UAF reserve concentrations. This follows the loss of Zhovtneve (noted in the previous daily report) and suggests the RF "Vostok" Group is attempting to widen the penetration toward the H-08 highway.
• Rear Area: Increased FSB counter-intelligence activity indicates a heightened RF sensitivity to UAF partisan and SOF reconnaissance in occupied Zaporizhzhia.

3. Strategic Rear / Air Defense:

• Kyiv/National: The official warning of "massive strikes" suggests a synchronized missile and drone package is imminent, potentially involving ballistic platforms. UAF AD is prioritized but facing a critical munitions gap.
• Kirovohrad: Kropyvnytskyi is under immediate UAV threat (1811Z).

Enemy activity / threat assessment

• Technological Shift: Vladimir Putin has ordered the immediate integration of unmanned systems into "legal fields" and civilian sectors, specifically citing the transition of "SVO veterans" with drone expertise into the civilian workforce (1826Z-1828Z). This indicates an institutionalization of drone warfare into the broader Russian state economy.
• Tactical Adaptation: RF continues to utilize "Vostok" and "South" groupings to maintain simultaneous pressure on disparate axes (Zaporizhzhia and Donbas), forcing UAF to dilute its thinning reserve pool.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Defensive Posture: UAF is conducting active defense in the Kharkiv/Novoplatonivka sector to deny RF a rapid advance toward Borova.
• Strategic Policy: The enactment of the dual citizenship law serves as a morale booster and a strategic lever to facilitate the return or involvement of the Ukrainian diaspora in national defense and reconstruction.

Information environment / disinformation

• RF Narrative Control: State media (TASS) is heavily promoting "technological sovereignty" and AI initiatives (1827Z) to mask the high-attrition nature of current front-line gains.
• Geopolitical Agitprop: Pro-RF channels (Voenkor Kotenok/ASTRA) are amplifying fabricated or misleading content regarding US-Iran tensions (Trump quotes) to create a perception of global instability and US distraction (1816Z-1817Z).

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• MLCOA: A large-scale, multi-domain aerial strike (Missiles + Shaheds) targeting energy infrastructure and AD nodes across central and western Ukraine.
• MDCOA: RF forces in the "South" Group achieve a tactical breakthrough in the Konstantinovka direction, necessitating a rapid UAF withdrawal from exposed positions in the Donbas to avoid encirclement.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. [CRITICAL] BDA Orekhov: Confirm the extent of damage to UAF personnel/equipment following the Uragan strike at 1803Z.
2. [HIGH] Novoplatonivka FLOT: Verify the current control status of Novoplatonivka via geolocation of recent combat footage.
3. [MEDIUM] AD Interceptor Levels: Determine the specific interceptor types in critical shortage to refine requests during the Miami negotiations.

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IPB ANALYSIS (UPDATED)

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW The tactical situation is deteriorating in the Lyman and Konstantinovka sectors. The war is entering a phase of high-tech institutionalization in Russia, while Ukraine is reaching a critical threshold in air defense sustainability.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS The RF is shifting from "emergency" mobilization to a "sovereign technology" model. Putin's focus on autonomous trains, AI, and veteran drone pilots suggests a long-term commitment to a high-tech, high-attrition conflict. The offensive focus has shifted from Kupyansk proper to the southern flanks (Lyman/Novoplatonivka).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES UAF is politically leaning into Western integration (Dual Citizenship) but is tactically strained. The suspension of the Tehran embassy operations suggests a total breakdown in diplomatic backchannels with RF's primary drone supplier.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT RF is using a "technology of the future" narrative to counter Western "sanctions failure" narratives. UAF must emphasize the resilience of the AD network despite interceptor shortages to maintain domestic morale.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

• MLCOA: Kinetic focus remains on the Lyman-Krasnolimanske pincer. Expect an increase in RF CAS (Close Air Support) if UAF AD is suppressed by the predicted "massive strike."
• MDCOA: A breakthrough at Kostiantynivka that allows RF forces to interdict the main supply route (MSR) to Pokrovsk from the north.

//REPORT ENDS//