Situation Update (1730Z 16 JAN 26)
Key updates since last sitrep
- NEW STRATEGIC MISSILE THREAT (1722Z, Monitoring Channels, LOW): Unconfirmed reports indicate a potential imminent launch of the RU "Oreshnik" intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) against Ukrainian targets.
- SIVERSK SECTOR ADVANCE (1714Z, Slivochniy Kapriz, MEDIUM): RU forces have reported tactical gains in the vicinity of Reznikovka (Siversk axis), indicating a broadening of the RU winter offensive.
- TELEGRAM BLOCKING INITIATIVE (1701Z, Roskomnadzor/Z-Channels, HIGH): Head of Roskomnadzor announced development of tools for the total blocking of Telegram within the Russian Federation, suggesting a major shift in RU domestic information control.
- UAF DRONE SUCCESS (1715Z, Sternenko/Skelya 425, HIGH): Confirmed drone-based destruction of RU personnel and equipment in the Novopavlivka sector, supported by decentralized volunteer logistics.
- BANKING MAINTENANCE ALERT (1705Z, PrivatBank/RBK, HIGH): PrivatBank (Ukraine) will suspend all card operations on the night of Jan 17 for maintenance; this is a critical detail for personnel in the field relying on digital payments.
- UK AID QUANTIFIED (1704Z, Zaluzhnyi/RBK, HIGH): Total UK support since Feb 2022 has reached £21 billion, coinciding with new energy support packages reported earlier.
- ECONOMIC PRESSURE (1723Z, Rybar, MEDIUM): US sanctions (OFAC) have forced the divestment of LUKOIL assets in Kazakhstan, marking a significant loss of RU energy influence in Central Asia.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Stepnohirsk):
RU drone activity remains high over Zaporizhzhia (1721Z), likely conducting reconnaissance-strike missions to protect the Gaychur bridgehead. UAF has cleared the previous MiG-31K air alert (1706Z), but the sector remains at high readiness for follow-on strikes.
2. Eastern Axis (Siversk/Donbas):
A new point of friction has emerged near Reznikovka. If RU gains in the Siversk sector are consolidated, they threaten the integrity of the UAF defensive line between Siversk and Lyman. In the Novopavlivka sector, UAF is successfully leveraging FPV drones to mitigate RU mechanized pressure.
3. Strategic Rear (National/RU Internal):
The potential deployment of the "Oreshnik" missile (1722Z) represents a significant escalation in the RU psychological warfare campaign, intended to coincide with the diplomatic visit of UAF leadership to Washington. Internally, RU is moving to silence the "mil-blogger" community by developing tools to block Telegram (1701Z), which has served as a primary (though often critical) source of battlefield information for the RU domestic audience.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
- Missile/Aviation: RU is alternating between "empty" MiG-31K sorties (to induce fatigue) and credible threats of high-yield ballistic strikes (Oreshnik). This is a textbook multi-domain pressure campaign.
- Tactical Shift: RU "Vostok" and "Zapad" groups are attempting to desynchronize UAF reserves by opening or reactivating smaller sectors like Siversk/Reznikovka while UAF is focused on the Southern breach.
- Logistics/Stability: RU is increasing maternity capital and veteran payments (1714Z, 1715Z) to offset the domestic impact of high casualties and maintain the "Special Military Operation" social contract.
Friendly activity (UAF)
- Defensive Operations: "SKELYA 425" and other tactical units continue to demonstrate high proficiency in the drone-to-artillery kill chain, specifically in the Novopavlivka and Southern sectors.
- Logistical Awareness: The PrivatBank maintenance window (1705Z, Jan 17) requires tactical commanders to ensure units have redundant means of procurement or sufficient cash reserves for the 24h period.
- Strategic Diplomacy: UAF High Command (Zaluzhnyi) is reinforcing the narrative of high-yield Western partnerships (UK aid figures) to maintain morale and offset RU propaganda regarding Western "fatigue."
Information environment / disinformation
- RU Internal Control: The Roskomnadzor move against Telegram indicates the RU state is preparing for a phase of the war that requires total narrative control, possibly ahead of further mobilization or unpopular tactical decisions.
- Anti-Western Rhetoric: RU state media and Duma members (Lugovoy) are intensifying rhetoric against the UK (1717Z) and NATO (1709Z, Greenland narratives), framing the conflict as a direct war with the West to justify economic hardships.
- Strategic Skepticism: Igor Strelkov's analysis (1711Z) suggests a growing segment of the RU hardline nationalist community views any potential "Trump ceasefire" as a defeat, indicating internal RU pressure to continue offensive operations.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- MLCOA: RU will continue tactical probing in the Siversk sector while maintaining high-tempo drone surveillance over the Zaporizhzhia bridgehead.
- MDCOA: RU conducts a "demonstration strike" using the Oreshnik IRBM against a logistical hub or energy node in Central Ukraine to overshadow UAF diplomatic efforts in the US.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [CRITICAL] Oreshnik Readiness: Require SIGINT/IMINT on RU Strategic Rocket Forces (SRF) launch sites (e.g., Kapustin Yar) to confirm Oreshnik launch preparations.
- [HIGH] Siversk FLOT: Request visual confirmation of RU presence in Reznikovka to determine if the reported advance is a breakthrough or a temporary tactical excursion.
- [MEDIUM] Telegram Blocking: Monitor for RU tests of the "total block" tools in occupied territories as a precursor to a domestic rollout.
IPB ANALYSIS
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo is increasing in the East (Siversk), while the South remains the primary theater of RU mechanized ambition. The strategic domain is dominated by threats of high-end RU missile technology (Oreshnik) and a tightening of RU domestic information space.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Russia is demonstrating a "layered escalation" strategy: tactical ground advances (Siversk), operational river crossings (Gaychur), and strategic ballistic threats. The move against Telegram suggests RU leadership anticipates a need to suppress dissenting "mil-blogger" voices in the near term. Economic adjustments (maternity capital) indicate a continued "long war" footing.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
UAF remains reliant on high-attrition drone tactics to stall RU advances. The quantification of UK aid and the ongoing US mission are critical for sustainability. Tactical units must adapt to a short-term disruption in digital financial services (PrivatBank).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Russia is shifting from "normalization" to "active hostility" narratives, specifically targeting the UK. The framing of NATO's Greenland deployment as an "anecdote" is a distraction from the tightening of RU domestic censorship.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
- MLCOA: RU will exploit the Reznikovka gain to pressure the northern flank of the Donbas defense, forcing UAF to choose between reinforcing Siversk or Stepnohirsk.
- MDCOA: RU integrates an Oreshnik strike into a mass Shahed/Kinzhal salvo, targeting the "Pulse" decentralized energy nodes during the PrivatBank maintenance window to maximize social and logistical paralysis.
//REPORT ENDS//
