Situation Report

Situation Update (161300Z JAN 26)

Key updates since last sitrep

• CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE DEGRADATION (1255Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): Kyiv Mayor reports approximately 100 high-rise buildings remain without heating. 50 mobile kitchens have been deployed to high-deficit areas (1233Z, Operativnyi ZSU).
• RUSSIAN OPERATIONAL GAINS (1243Z, 1259Z, TASS/Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Russian forces have reportedly captured the settlement of Zakotne (Donetsk region). This suggests a tightening of the pocket near the Siversk/Lyman vector.
• KUPYANSK SECTOR DISCREPANCY (1256Z, TASS, LOW): The Commander of RU "Zapad" Group claims all districts of Kupyansk are under Russian control. Note: This is UNCONFIRMED and contradicts previous reports of ongoing encirclement attempts.
• STRATEGIC DIPLOMATIC PIVOT (1220Z, 1245Z, Operativnyi ZSU/RBK-UA, HIGH): President Zelensky announced an upcoming meeting with representatives of Donald Trump in the US and a potential $800 billion reconstruction agreement to be discussed at Davos.
• INTERNAL RU INSTABILITY (1222Z, 1250Z, TASS/ASTRA, HIGH): The casualty count from the flash-noise grenade incident at the MVD center in Syktyvkar has risen to 20. A teacher has been detained for detonating a training device.
• INTENSIFIED UA ANTI-CORRUPTION (1233Z, 1239Z, RBK-UA/TASS, HIGH): High-profile legal proceedings continue; Yulia Tymoshenko has been ordered to pay 33 million UAH ($760k) bail in a deputy bribery case.

Operational picture (by sector)

1. Northern Axis (Chernihiv/Sumy/Kharkiv):

• Sumy/Shostka: Under active UAV threat from the north and east (1229Z, 1231Z AFU Air Force).
• Chernihiv: Presence of RU reconnaissance UAVs (likely Orlan-10/Supercam) detected near Semenivka and Kholmy, indicating active targeting for upcoming strikes (1253Z, AFU Air Force).
• Kharkiv: RU MoD claims to have repelled UA drone strikes in the border region (1225Z).

2. Eastern Axis (Donbas/Kupyansk):

• Lyman/Siversk Vector: Capture of Zakotne (1243Z) by RU forces threatens the rear of UAF positions in the Siversk salient.
• Kupyansk: High-level RU claim of total control (1256Z). This remains unverified; if true, it represents a significant tactical collapse in the sector.
• Sloviansk: UA unit "Signum" (53rd OMBr) confirms ongoing intensive engagements (1235Z).

3. Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipro):

• Zaporizhzhia: Under active KAB (Guided Aerial Bomb) and UAV threat (1244Z, 1245Z AFU Air Force).
• Dnipropetrovsk: RU forces conducted a "Hyacinth-B" artillery strike against reported UA temporary deployment points (1229Z, Voin DV).

4. Russian Strategic Rear:

• Belgorod: Currently under "massive" UA drone attack; air defenses and mobile fire groups are active (1242Z, Poddubny).
• Internal Purge: A high-ranking Rosatom official has been detained on charges of financing the ZSU (1228Z, Tsaplienko).

Enemy activity / threat assessment

• Tactical Shift: The inspection of the "Zapad" Group by RU Defense Minister Belousov (1255Z) suggests a verification of readiness for a renewed offensive push toward Kupyansk/Lyman.
• Infrastructure Targeting: Pro-RU channels (Two Majors, 1224Z) are explicitly calling for strikes on energy nodes connecting Ukraine to the European grid to ensure total systemic collapse.
• Mobilization Claims: Dmitry Medvedev claims 422,000 contract recruits were signed in 2025 (1249Z). This is assessed as likely inflated for domestic stability but indicates no let-up in RF manpower replenishment.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Air Defense: Successful clearance of the ballistic threat (1243Z) indicates effective interceptor deployment following the arrival of the "serious package" of missiles.
• Deep Strike: Continued pressure on Belgorod (1242Z) serves to fix RU air defense assets and disrupt logistics for the Kharkiv/Sumy border operations.
• Governance: High-level coordination (Headquarters for Liquidation of Energy Emergencies) is active to manage the 100-building heat crisis in Kyiv (1249Z, 1255Z).

Information environment / disinformation

• "Forced Peace" Narrative: RU channels are heavily amplifying a quote attributed to Czech President Pavel regarding "painful concessions" (1221Z, 1250Z) to project an image of wavering European support.
• Elite Friction: RU media is framing the Tymoshenko bribery case as evidence of a "fascist regime" and internal chaos ("spiders in a jar") to undermine UA domestic morale (1251Z, Poddubny).
• Telegram Degradation: RKN is confirmed to be slowing Telegram in Russia to force users toward state-monitored platforms (1228Z, 1243Z).

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• MLCOA: Continued KAB and UAV strikes on Zaporizhzhia and Sumy to exploit the energy deficit and fix UAF reserves.
• MDCOA: RU "Zapad" Group attempts a breakthrough in the Kupyansk sector following Belousov’s inspection, aiming to validate the claim of total control.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. [CRITICAL] Ground Truth - Kupyansk: Urgent requirement for IMINT or ground reporting to verify RU claims of "all districts under control."
2. [HIGH] Sector BDA - Zakotne: Confirm the extent of RU consolidation in Zakotne and the impact on Siversk supply lines.
3. [MEDIUM] Stepnohirsk Status: Previous reports of a breach remain uncorroborated by new feed data.

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IPB ANALYSIS

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW The conflict has entered a phase of extreme environmental pressure. The loss of heat in 100 Kyiv high-rises at -22°C creates a civilian "center of gravity" vulnerability. Militarily, the capture of Zakotne and claims in Kupyansk suggest a Russian attempt to collapse the Siversk-Kupyansk-Lyman defensive line simultaneously.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS The Russian command is displaying increased operational confidence, evidenced by Belousov's frontline inspection. They are successfully integrating internal purges (Rosatom) and domestic mobilization narratives (Medvedev) to sustain a high-attrition offensive. The use of KABs in Zaporizhzhia continues to be the primary tactical challenge for UA defenses.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES UAF remains in a defensive-reactive posture in the south and east but maintains offensive initiative in the strategic rear (Belgorod drone strikes). The anti-corruption drive, while potentially damaging to public perception if framed by RU propaganda, is vital for long-term Western aid sustainability.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT Russia is conducting a sophisticated "Peace via Exhaustion" campaign, utilizing the Davos forum and President Pavel’s comments to suggest that the West is preparing to abandon Ukraine. The RKN’s throttling of Telegram suggests RU is preparing for a period of tighter information control, possibly ahead of a new domestic mobilization or major offensive.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

• MLCOA: RU will attempt to seize the H-08 highway using the momentum from Zaporizhzhia while maintaining grid pressure on Kyiv.
• MDCOA (Tactical Collapse): If the Kupyansk claims are even partially true, a rapid RU advance toward the Oskil River could force a large-scale UAF withdrawal across the entire sector.

//REPORT ENDS//