CONFIRMED LOSS – HIMARS MLRS (1041Z, Alex Parker Returns/Rybar, HIGH): Visual evidence (drone footage) confirms the destruction of a HIMARS unit in Chernihiv Oblast approximately 50km from the Bryansk border. The unit was intercepted by two loitering munitions (Geran/Shahed variants) while displacing on a highway. This is a significant upgrade from the previous "unconfirmed" status.
TERRITORIAL LOSSES – ZAKOTNE & ZHOVTNEVE (1030Z, Kotsnews, HIGH): Video confirmation corroborates Russian MoD claims regarding the capture of Zakotne (Donbas) and Zhovtneve (Zaporizhzhia). Russian forces have likely consolidated these positions, creating a staging point for further advances toward Siversk and the H-08 highway.
DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENT – UK (1036Z, RBC-Ukraine, HIGH): UK Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy arrived in Kyiv by rail. This visit likely focuses on emergency energy aid and the PURL procurement program following the destruction of the Kharkiv energy hub.
ENERGY CRISIS – KYIV (1045Z, Operativnyi ZSU, MEDIUM): All universities and vocational schools in Kyiv are transitioning to 100% remote learning due to power shortages. Reports indicate potential evictions/relocations of civilians from "freezing houses" (1059Z, Operatsiya Z).
DOMESTIC SECURITY – RUSSIA (1033Z, TASS/Novosti Moskvy, MEDIUM): Russian authorities have begun partial blocking of Telegram and arrested a high-ranking Rosatom official (Mikhail Shcherbak) for alleged "funding of the UAF." This suggests an internal crackdown on dissent and potential "fifth column" elements within strategic industries.
REGIONAL SECURITY – POLAND (1053Z, TASS, MEDIUM): Polish MoD officially stated it will not mine the border with Russia, likely seeking to avoid escalatory signaling despite the regional tensions.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Axis (Chernihiv/Sumy/Kursk):
Chernihiv: The loss of the HIMARS unit (1041Z) indicates that RU loitering munitions are operating effectively deep (50km+) behind the border, likely supported by high-altitude ISR drones.
Sumy/Kursk: GSZSU reports repelling one assault in the border region (1034Z). RU aviation conducted strikes on Manukhivka and Bilopillya (1033Z).
2. Eastern Axis (Donbas/Kharkiv):
Kharkiv: Intense clashes continue in the South Slobozhansky direction (Vovchansk, Tykhe, Starytsya). RU forces are pushing toward the Izbytske-Nesterne line (1033Z).
Kupyansk/Lyman: High-intensity engagements reported near Pischane and Zarichne. UA forces are reportedly holding the approaches to Kupyansk (1046Z), with significant RU casualties observed on city outskirts.
Siversk/Sloviansk: Following the loss of Zakotne, RU forces are engaging UA defenses at Platonivka, threatening to envelope the Siversk salient (1038Z).
Pokrovsk: Severe attrition is noted; frontline reports highlight units being on the line for 255 days without rotation, signaling critical personnel fatigue (1040Z).
3. Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Zhovtneve/Stepnohirsk: RU forces have intensified airstrikes across 13 settlements (Orikhiv, Huliaipole, Preobrazhenka, etc.). GSZSU confirms ongoing clashes near Stepnohirsk and Kamyanske, indicating RU attempts to widen the breach toward the H-08 logistics route (1038Z).
Kherson: Localized fighting persists near the Antonivskiy Bridge (1038Z); no significant change in FLOT.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
UAV Dominance: The successful interdiction of the HIMARS unit demonstrates a high level of coordination between RU ISR and strike UAVs (Geran/Shahed) in the tactical rear. This represents a maturing of the RU "reconnaissance-strike complex."
Political Warfare: The creation of a "unified list of extremists" with Belarus (1033Z) and the arrest of Rosatom officials indicate a shift toward total domestic mobilization and security tightening.
Logistics Interdiction: RU focus on Pavlohrad (UAV flights) and the H-08 highway (Zhovtneve breakthrough) suggests a theater-level intent to isolate the Donbas grouping.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Personnel Shifts: Reports confirm Mykhailo Fedorov is active in his role as Minister of Defense, focusing on technological growth and mobilization reform (1046Z).
Deep Strikes: Detection of a "Red Level" UAV threat in Lipetsk, Russia (1042Z) suggests sustained UAF long-range strike operations against RU industrial centers.
Internal Audit: OPG reports a major bust of a 12m UAH VAT fraud scheme (1030Z), part of the ongoing anti-corruption drive within the defense/economic sectors.
Information environment / disinformation
"Territory for EU" Narrative: RU sources are heavily amplifying a Financial Times report suggesting Zelenskyy may concede Donbas for EU membership (1035Z). This is likely a shaping operation to demoralize frontline troops and domestic UA audiences.
Kyiv Grid Failure: RU propagandists are highlighting the relocation of Kyiv civilians as a sign of imminent state collapse (1059Z).
Leadership Smears: RU channels are circulating "criminal records" of UA commanders (e.g., Cdr Manko) to delegitimize the chain of command (1047Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RU will attempt to exploit the Zakotne capture to push toward Siversk. Continued intensive aviation prep in Zaporizhzhia indicates a larger ground push toward Stepnohirsk/Orikhiv is imminent.
MDCOA: A successful RU strike on a major UA command node or logistical "choke point" (e.g., Pavlohrad or Dnipro bridges) during the extreme cold snap (-20°C), triggering a localized defensive collapse.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Verification of Stepnohirsk status: RU claims breakthrough vs. GSZSU reports of active clashes.
[HIGH] Assessment of RU loitering munition range: Is the HIMARS strike in Chernihiv indicative of a new, longer-range Geran-variant or local infiltration?
[MEDIUM] Monitoring of domestic friction: Assess the impact of Yulia Tymoshenko's defiant statements (1057Z) on UA political stability.
