TACTICAL INTERDICTION – KUPYANSK/OSKOL (0752Z, MoD Russia, HIGH): A Russian Molniya-2 fixed-wing UAV destroyed a Ukrainian pontoon bridge over the Oskol River. This is assessed to have immediate impacts on UAF rotations and logistics in the Kupyansk sector.
AERIAL THREAT – KYIV/CHERNIHIV AXIS (0740Z-0749Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Multiple Russian UAVs detected moving south from Chernihiv toward Kyiv and from the south toward Zaporizhzhia city. This indicates a synchronized multi-vector loitering munition/ISR wave.
UNCONFIRMED STRIKE – HIMARS IN CHERNIHIV (0759Z, Colonelcassad, LOW): Russian sources claim the destruction of a HIMARS MLRS unit in Chernihiv Oblast during movement. No visual confirmation or UAF acknowledgment exists; currently assessed as a potential information operation or unverified tactical claim.
STRATEGIC ECONOMIC SHIFT – SINO-RUSSIAN ENERGY (0750Z, ASTRA, HIGH): China has reportedly ceased all purchases of Russian electricity as of Jan 1, 2026. This represents a significant long-term loss of hard currency and a pivot in the "no-limits" partnership.
INTERNAL SECURITY – FSB SABOTAGE CLAIMS (0754Z, TASS, MEDIUM): FSB reports the arrest of a 19-year-old in Sevastopol for transport infrastructure reconnaissance. This aligns with a broader Russian domestic push (0731Z) to highlight the "neutralization" of UAF-directed sabotage groups.
TECH DEPLOYMENT – UAF DIGITAL ACCOUNTING (0737Z, Butusov, MEDIUM): Implementation of the "E-baliv" system for tracking combat damage and rewards (attributed to Minister Fedorov) suggests increased digitization of UAF tactical management.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Axis (Chernihiv/Kyiv/Sumy):
Chernihiv: High UAV activity. Russian reconnaissance and strike drones are using the northern corridor as a primary vector for approaches toward Kyiv (0749Z). The unconfirmed HIMARS strike (0759Z) suggests Russian ISR is aggressively hunting high-value UAF mobile assets in this sector.
Kyiv: Under active threat from the northern UAV wave (0749Z).
2. Eastern Axis (Donbas/Kupyansk):
Kupyansk: Logistical disruption confirmed via the destruction of the Oskol pontoon bridge (0752Z). This restricts UAF movement on the eastern bank and complicates the defense of the Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi rail hub.
Toretsk: Russian 68th Tank Regiment is active, conducting strikes on UAF positions and Temporary Deployment Points (PVD) (0758Z).
Donetsk Mobility: No change from previous report; icing continues to impede heavy armor maneuvers, though artillery and drone strikes remain high-intensity.
3. Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk):
Zaporizhzhia: Air raid alerts were lifted for the city (0742Z), but a drone threat from the south was immediately detected afterward (0748Z). The threat of rocket/missile strikes remains "High" for the wider oblast.
Crimea/Sevastopol: Russian counter-intelligence (FSB) claims to have interdicted UAF reconnaissance targeting transport nodes (0754Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptation: The use of the "Molniya-2" UAV for bridge interdiction indicates a refined Russian capability to strike small, critical infrastructure targets to isolate battlefield sectors.
Strategic Logistics: Internally, Russia is facing mounting economic friction. The loss of the Chinese electricity market (0750Z) and rising diesel costs (0750Z) will likely force a prioritization of military over civilian logistics in the mid-term.
Internal Friction: Reports of torture in the Ussuriysk military unit (0748Z) and high AWOL rates (from previous daily report) continue to highlight systemic morale and disciplinary issues within the RF MoD.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Logistical Sustainment: Increased reliance on civil-society fundraising ("donat" requests) noted across major Telegram channels (0735Z, 0755Z) to supplement tactical needs.
Humanitarian/Legal: The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of POWs has launched a DNA sampling initiative in Poland (0748Z) to identify missing citizens, signaling a focus on long-term legal and humanitarian accountability.
Political Stability: The Yulia Tymoshenko legal proceedings (0740Z) continue under significant media scrutiny; Tymoshenko's claims of fabricated evidence (0731Z) are being used by various factions to influence domestic sentiment.
Information environment / disinformation
Russian "Sabotage" Narrative: A heavy volume of reports (FSB arrests, teen arsonists) is being pushed to demonstrate state control and vilify UAF-linked activities as "terrorism" targeting youth.
NATO Distraction: Pro-Russian channels (Colonelcassad, WarGonzo) are amplifying reports of a "NATO Arctic Mission" to Greenland (0731Z, 0745Z), likely to frame Western support as overextended or distracted by territorial disputes with the US (Trump/Greenland narrative).
Censorship: Russian officials (Dep. Svintsov) have signaled that Telegram will not be fully blocked due to its "interaction with authorities" (0756Z), confirming its role as a primary, though controlled, information tool for the Kremlin.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued UAV saturation strikes on Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia to drain air defense interceptors. Localized Russian ground assaults in Toretsk and Kupyansk will exploit the bridge interdiction to pressure UAF holding forces.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the confirmed bridge destruction at Kupyansk to launch a sudden mechanized push across the Oskol in a shallow area, attempting to establish a bridgehead before UAF can restore crossing capability.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Kupyansk Crossing: Identify alternative UAF crossing points or the status of engineering assets moving to restore the Oskol crossing.
[HIGH] HIMARS Status: Urgent verification of the status of MLRS units in Chernihiv. Is the Russian claim (0759Z) an indicator of a new ISR-strike complex "kill chain" efficiency?
[MEDIUM] Grid Status: Monitor the impact of the Chinese electricity export ban on the Far East Russian grid—will this free up energy for Russian military-industrial plants or cause local instability?
