CRITICAL CIVILIAN DIRECTIVE - CURFEW RELAXATION (0632Z, RBK-Ukraine/Shmyhal, HIGH): The Ukrainian government has modified curfew regulations to allow unrestricted civilian movement at night for the specific purpose of reaching "Points of Invincibility." This confirms a critical escalation in the energy crisis, requiring emergency overnight access to heating and power hubs.
KINETIC ACTION - LARGE-SCALE UAV ATTACK (0634Z, Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH): UAF Air Defense successfully intercepted/suppressed 53 out of 76 Russian UAVs overnight. Approximately 50 of the total were identified as "Shahed" variants. (RBK-Ukraine, 0653Z).
AERIAL THREAT - KAB STRIKES ON SUMY (0645Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Confirmed launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) against Sumy Oblast, indicating continued Russian efforts to widen the northern "buffer zone" and suppress UAF tactical reserves.
TACTICAL STRIKE - NIKOPOL SECTOR (0637Z, Basurin/RT, MEDIUM): Russian-aligned drone units conducted strikes on UAF technical assets housed within a factory in Nikopol, utilizing cross-Dnieper FPV operations.
LEGAL/POLITICAL - TYMOSHENKO PROSECUTION (0647Z, RBK-Ukraine, MEDIUM): The Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAP) is reportedly seeking a 50 million UAH bail for Yulia Tymoshenko. This may introduce internal political friction during a period of acute national stress.
UNCONFIRMED - GREENLAND/IRAN POSTURING (0644Z, Kotsnews, LOW): Claims regarding "preparations for an attack on Iran" and "meetings on Greenland" are circulating; assessed as likely diversionary information operations or high-level geopolitical posturing with no immediate tactical impact.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Sumy/Chernihiv):
Kharkiv Sector: Constant pressure remains; 10 settlements in the region and Kharkiv city proper were targeted in the last 24 hours (0641Z, Sinegubov).
Sumy Sector: Russian VKS continues to utilize KABs (0645Z) to degrade UAF defensive positions, supporting the expansion of the Alekseevka-Andreevka corridor identified in the previous 24h.
Logistics: The isolation of the eastern bank of the Oskil River (following the Osynovo bridge destruction) remains the primary operational constraint for UAF in the Kupyansk-Lyman direction.
Kyiv Defense: While the 70% interception rate (53/76) for the overnight UAV wave shows continued AD viability, 23 drones were not kinetically intercepted, contributing to the "City-Kill" pressure on infrastructure.
Nikopol/Zaporizhzhia: RF is exploiting the Dnieper River width to conduct FPV drone harassment against industrial sites in Nikopol (0637Z). This indicates a persistent "economy of force" tactic to fix UAF units in the south.
3. Eastern Axis (Donbas):
Donetsk Sector: UAF "Hostri Kartuzy" drone unit successfully disrupted an RF assault group in the suburban areas of Donetsk (0658Z, Butusov Plus). This confirms that despite the energy crisis, tactical-level drone dominance remains a contested and vital UAF capability.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action: The RF is maintaining a high-volume "low-cost" attrition strategy using Shahed UAVs to saturate AD while reserving precision missiles for critical infrastructure strikes. The focus remains on the "Ice Plug" strategy—leveraging cold weather and grid failure to force civilian displacement.
Tactical Adaptation: Continued reliance on cross-river drone strikes (Nikopol) and KABs (Sumy) suggests a preference for standoff engagement to minimize RF personnel losses while Gerasimov oversees the Stepnohirsk breakthrough attempt (ref. Previous Daily Report).
Logistics: No significant changes; RF sustainment appears stable in the "North" grouping, supported by the systematic destruction of UAF bridge infrastructure.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Mobile fire groups and EW units accounted for 53 interceptions (0632Z). The ~30% leekage rate is concerning for the energy grid's stability.
Civil-Military Integration: The government’s decision to allow curfew movement for "Points of Invincibility" (0637Z) demonstrates a shift toward survival-oriented governance.
Counter-Assault: Tactical successes in the Donetsk sector (0658Z) show UAF remains capable of localized counter-attacks despite theater-level logistical degradation.
Information environment / disinformation
Russian "Collapse" Narrative: Pro-RU channels (Operatsiya Z, 0631Z) are aggressively pushing a narrative that Ukrainian AD is "broken" and the energy grid is "annihilated." This is designed to accelerate morale decline during the cold snap.
Diversionary Propaganda: The fabricated Trump/Nobel narrative (0638Z, 0652Z) continues to be amplified by high-reach RU "Voenkors" (Kotenok, Colonelcassad) to saturate the information space and distract from the Stepnohirsk-Zaporizhzhia FLOT changes.
Internal Friction: The Tymoshenko legal development (0647Z) is being tracked for potential exploitation by RU assets to frame the UA government as "unstable" or "corrupt" during a national crisis.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will launch a secondary UAV wave or localized missile strikes targeting the "Points of Invincibility" or their immediate power supply lines, exploiting the fact that civilians are now authorized to congregate there at night.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A massive KAB/ballistic missile combined strike on the Sumy-Kharkiv logistics nodes to coincide with a ground push from the Stepnohirsk breach, attempting to force a multi-sector collapse while the energy grid is at peak instability.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] BDA NIKOPOL: Determine the extent of damage to technical equipment in the Nikopol factory strike (0637Z).
[HIGH] STEPNOHIRSK FLOT: Urgent need for visual confirmation (satellite/UAV) of the forward line of RF troops near Stepnohirsk to validate if they have reached the H-08 highway.
[MEDIUM] ENERGY RECOVERY: Assess the impact of the overnight UAV leakage (23 drones) on the Kyiv and Kharkiv repair timelines.
Actionable Recommendations
Security for Heating Hubs: Deploy additional SHORAD and mobile fire groups to protect "Points of Invincibility," as they are now high-density civilian targets with predictable nighttime occupancy.
Decentralized Command: Encourage regional commanders in Sumy/Kharkiv to operate under autonomous orders in the event of total telecommunications failure due to grid collapse.
Internal Stability: Monitor the Tymoshenko legal case for signs of orchestrated civil unrest or Russian-backed "Maidan-3" narrative amplification.
