NEW AERIAL THREAT - CHERNIHIV OBLAST (0326Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): New groups of Shahed-type UAVs detected in the Novhorod-Siverskyi district. Vector is southwest, likely targeting Kyiv or energy nodes in Central Ukraine.
THREAT CESSATION - LIPETSK OBLAST (0302Z, Igor Artamonov, HIGH): All threat levels ("Red" and "Yellow") have been cancelled for the Lipetsk region. This confirms the conclusion of the UAF deep-strike attempt or reconnaissance mission in the RF strategic rear.
TACTICAL DOCTRINE - ANTI-UAV EVOLUTION (0309Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Dissemination of PLA (People's Liberation Army) drone-defense training footage within pro-RF channels indicates a heightening focus on individual C-UAV tactics to mitigate high attrition from UAF FPVs.
INFORMATION DIVERSION - US-CENTRIC NARRATIVES (0312Z-0321Z, RBK-UA/TASS, MEDIUM): Sharp pivot in the information space toward US foreign policy (Gaza Peace Council) and military spending ($22B "Trump-class" battleship). This is likely an effort to dilute reporting on the "Ice Plug" campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
Chernihiv:(NEW THREAT) The detection of UAVs at 0326Z indicates a new infiltration vector from the north. This bypasses the heavily contested Sumy corridor and places the Kyiv regional energy grid under renewed pressure.
Kharkiv/Kupyansk: No new ground data. The Oskil crossing remains severed (0222Z baseline). The region continues to struggle with -22°C temperatures and the fallout of the energy hub destruction (1433Z Jan 15).
2. Eastern Axis (Donbas/RF Rear):
Lipetsk (RU Rear): The "All Clear" (0302Z) suggests RF Air Defense has neutralized the threat or the mission has concluded. This reset allows RF to resume normal logistical flow toward the Donbas without the disruption of "Red Level" alerts.
Donetsk/Lyman: Activity remains high. Pro-RF sources are increasingly focused on disseminating tactical survival videos (0309Z), suggesting that UAF drone superiority remains a critical friction point for RF infantry operations.
3. Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia):
Zaporizhzhia City: No "all-clear" reported following the 0224Z UAV vector. The city remains on high alert.
Stepnohirsk: Status remains UNCONFIRMED. RF claims of control (1441Z Jan 15) lack visual verification.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation/UAV: RF is maintaining a multi-vector "swarm" approach. The 0326Z Chernihiv group forces UAF to redistribute Air Defense assets away from the eastern front to protect the northern approaches to the capital.
Information Warfare: Use of TASS to report on "Trump-class battleships" (0321Z) serves as a classic "maskirovka" in the cognitive domain—shifting the narrative from the humanitarian crisis of the "City-Kill" campaign to abstract US-centric military-industrial themes.
Tactical Course of Action: RF is likely integrating lessons from PLA drone-defense footage (0309Z) into their front-line training to counter UAF's primary tactical advantage (FPV swarms).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) are actively tracking the Novhorod-Siverskyi UAV group (0326Z). Priority remains the protection of remaining high-voltage transformers in the Chernihiv-Kyiv corridor.
Strategic Rear Ops: Despite the Lipetsk alert cancellation (0302Z), the persistence of these alerts indicates UAF's ability to fix RF AD assets deep within Russian territory, complicating their internal logistics.
Information environment / disinformation
"The Trump Pivot": Reports regarding a "Peace Council" for Gaza (0312Z) and naval procurement costs (0321Z) are being injected into the Ukrainian information space. Assessment: This is a coordinated attempt to project "Ukraine fatigue" by suggesting the US executive is focused exclusively on the Middle East and long-term naval projects rather than immediate European security.
PLA Influence: The promotion of Chinese military training (0309Z) by Russian milbloggers signals a deepening of the "No Limits" partnership at the tactical/instructional level.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): The UAV groups currently over Chernihiv (0326Z) will attempt to reach the outskirts of Kyiv or strike substations in the Nizhyn/Chernihiv region by dawn.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A synchronized "missile-UAV" strike where the Chernihiv UAVs serve as decoys for a high-speed Kinzhal/Iskander strike on repair sites in Kharkiv or Zaporizhzhia, exploiting the current -22°C vulnerability.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[HIGH] CHERNIHIV UAV COMPOSITION: Confirmation required if the 0326Z group contains new "Geran-4" variants or EW-heavy platforms designed to blind local AD.
[MEDIUM] LIPETSK BDA: Despite the "all clear," visual confirmation of potential impact sites in the Lipetsk industrial zone is required to assess the effectiveness of the UAF strike.
[LOW] PLA-RF EMBEDDING: Monitor for reports of PLA advisors or standardized C-UAV equipment being deployed to the Donbas front following the 0309Z training narrative.
Actionable Recommendations
AD Redistribution: Ensure MFGs in the northern Kyiv oblast are positioned to intercept the Novhorod-Siverskyi vector before the UAVs enter the urban sprawl.
Narrative Counter-Strike: Fact-check the "Trump-class battleship" report (0321Z) to debunk the TASS narrative; emphasize the continued arrival of European aid (e.g., President Pavel's visit) to counter the "US abandonment" theme.
Energy Resilience: Pre-position repair teams in Chernihiv and Kyiv under hardened cover; the 0326Z group is a likely precursor to an attempt to deepen the "Ice Plug" on the northern grid.
