Situation Report

Situation Update (0630Z 15 JAN 2026)

Key updates since last sitrep

• AIR DEFENSE SUCCESS (0626Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH): Ukrainian Air Defense forces confirmed the destruction or suppression of 61 Russian UAVs during overnight operations.
• THREAT TO KYIV RESERVOIR (0626Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH): A Russian UAV has been detected crossing from Chernihiv Oblast, currently on a vector toward the Vyshhorod district (Kyiv).
• VREMIVKA/HULIAIPOLE AERIAL ESCALATION (0600Z, Voin DV, MEDIUM): Russian 11th Air Force and Air Defense Army bombers are conducting strikes on UAF reinforcements near Huliaipole, specifically targeting Gorkoye and Novoye Pole.
• NEPTUNE STRIKE ON BRYANSK (0628Z, TASS/Gov. Bogomaz, MEDIUM): RF officials claim to have intercepted two Ukrainian "Neptune" missiles and six UAVs over Bryansk Oblast. This indicates UAF is utilizing land-attack variants of indigenous cruise missiles against Russian border logistics/C2.
• SLOVAKIA HALTS MILITARY AID (0609Z, Rybar, HIGH): Slovakian leadership (President, PM, Speaker) unanimously announced a cessation of all military aid and soldiers, refusing to support the €90 billion EU package.
• RF LOGISTICAL STRAIN (0616Z, Dnevnik Desantnika, MEDIUM): Russian VDV (Airborne) units are publicly soliciting civilian "Bukhanka" (UAZ) vans from the public, suggesting persistent tactical transport shortages.

Operational picture (by sector)

Northern Axis (Chernihiv/Sumy): The UAV detected at 0545Z in Novhorod-Siverskyi has likely progressed or is part of a larger wave; the latest update (0626Z) places a drone over the Vyshhorod district. This is a critical development as Vyshhorod houses the Kyiv Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP).

Eastern Axis (Pokrovsk/Donetsk): Following CGS Gerasimov’s inspection, kinetic activity is intensifying. The UAF "Fakhivtsi" unit reported engaging RF assault groups moving through treelines north of Pokrovsk toward the Hryshyne-Myrnohrad road (0611Z). This confirms RF's intent to sever the ground lines of communication (GLOCs) feeding Myrnohrad. In the Kostiantynivka sector, RF forces are conducting shaping operations but are assessed as not yet ready for a full-scale urban assault (0611Z, Zvizdets Mangustu).

Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Vremivka): Increased use of fixed-wing aviation by the RF 11th Air Force (0600Z) suggests an attempt to interdict UAF reserves before they can stabilize the Huliaipole-Vremivka line. This mirrors the high SAR scores noted in the previous daily report for the Zaporizhzhia sector.

Strategic Rear (Russia): The "combined attack" on Bryansk (0621Z) involving Neptune missiles indicates UAF is targeting Russian depth to disrupt the flow of assets to the Sumy and Northern fronts.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Tactical Trends: RF is maintaining its "saturation" strategy but with a notable shift toward utilizing fixed-wing bombers in the south to compensate for infantry attrition. The public appeal for civilian vehicles by VDV units (0616Z) underscores a degradation in their organic tactical logistics, likely due to high FPV-drone-driven attrition of soft-skin vehicles.

Technological Adaptation: The Russian Investigative Committee (SK) has announced the development of indigenous facial recognition software (0607Z), likely intended for enhanced population control in occupied territories and rear-area security.

Logistics: Russia is making a long-term play for maritime independence, announcing the development of indigenous low-speed marine engines for large cargo ships (0603Z), though production is not expected until 2027-2028.

Friendly activity (UAF)

Defensive Operations: UAF air defenses remain highly effective (61/61+ intercepts), but the persistence of deep-penetration UAVs toward Kyiv energy infrastructure (Vyshhorod) remains a primary concern. Counter-Attacks: The use of Neptune missiles against Bryansk signals an aggressive stance toward Russian strategic logistics, potentially aiming to preempt a larger Sumy offensive.

Information environment / disinformation

• Diplomatic Isolation: RF propaganda is heavily amplifying the Slovakian decision to halt aid (0609Z) to foster a sense of crumbling Western unity.
• US Domestic Politics: Both RF (Fighterbomber) and Ukrainian (Tsaplienko) sources are reporting on Donald Trump’s statements blaming President Zelensky for the continuation of the war (0607Z, 0609Z). This is being used by RF to undermine UAF morale regarding long-term US support.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued RF pressure on the Hryshyne-Myrnohrad road to isolate Pokrovsk. Expect increased RF bomber sorties in the Vremivka sector to prevent UAF counter-maneuver.
• MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A targeted strike by the UAV currently over Vyshhorod on the Kyiv Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) or associated switching stations, intended to cause a localized grid failure during freezing temperatures.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. [CRITICAL] Confirm the current status and payload of the UAV in the Vyshhorod district. Is it a standard Shahed or the jet-powered "Geran-4" noted in previous daily reports?
2. [HIGH] Assess the damage from the Neptune strike in Bryansk. Identify the specific target (e.g., fuel depot, ammo dump, or C2 node).
3. [MEDIUM] Monitor the movement of the 11th Air Force assets. Does the increase in bombing runs signal the start of a broader southern offensive toward Huliaipole?

//END OF REPORT//