Sitrep 2026-01-15 05:00:08

Situation Update (0500Z 15 JAN 2026)

Key updates since last sitrep

RUSSIAN CGS INSPECTION (0451Z, TASS, MEDIUM): Valery Gerasimov (CGS) confirmed inspecting "Center" Group of Forces in the Dnipropetrovsk direction, signaling a shift in operational focus toward the administrative borders of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
KUPYANSK ENCIRCLEMENT CLAIM (0452Z, TASS, LOW): RF claims UAF units are surrounded on the eastern bank of the Oskil River and that street fighting is concluding in Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi. UNCONFIRMED.
KINETIC IMPACT IN LVIV (0442Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): Explosions reported in Lviv following UAV penetration; indicates RF successful bypass of Western AD layers.
KYIV AIR DEFENSE ENGAGEMENT (0440Z, AFU/KMVA, HIGH): Multi-vector UAV assault on Kyiv city and Vyshhorod district is ongoing; air alerts active across the capital.
STRATEGIC CAPTURE CLAIMS (0454Z, TASS, LOW): RF claims the capture of Siversk and an active advance toward Sloviansk. UNCONFIRMED.
RF CASUALTY THRESHOLD (0448Z, GenStaff AFU, MEDIUM): UAF reports +1,150 RF personnel losses in the last 24 hours, suggesting high-intensity attrition despite RF claims of momentum.

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)

The operational tempo has escalated significantly in the last 2 hours. The Russian Federation (RF) has synchronized a high-profile command-and-control (C2) demonstration—the Gerasimov inspection—with a multi-axis aerial assault.

Battlefield Geometry: RF is attempting to widen the front by pushing from Zaporizhzhia into the southern reaches of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Gerasimov's "security zone" expansion). In the East, the focus is on collapsing the Oskil River defensive line.
Weather: Continued cold and snow are likely impacting mobility, though RF is leveraging UAVs (Geran-4/Shahed) to maintain pressure despite ground conditions.

2. OPERATIONAL PICTURE (By Sector)

Northern Axis (Kyiv/Vyshhorod): A multi-UAV strike is currently transiting Vyshhorod toward Kyiv and Borodyanka (0431Z, 0440Z). This suggests a deliberate attempt to saturate the capital's AD while also targeting the logistics corridor to the northwest.

Eastern Axis (Kupyansk/Siversk/Sloviansk): Gerasimov claims the "liquidation" of UAF units on the Oskil east bank and progress in Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi (0453Z). If Siversk has indeed fallen (0454Z), the defensive line protecting the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk conurbation is severely compromised from the northeast.

Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk): Critically, RF claims to be expanding a "security zone" into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (0456Z). This corroborates the earlier reported "breakthrough" near Stepnohirsk but suggests a larger operational intent than previously assessed: a move toward the industrial heartland of Dnipro.

Western Axis (Lviv): The reports of explosions in Lviv (0442Z) confirm that the Western UAV vector was not just a distraction but a kinetic strike mission, likely targeting Western aid transit points or energy infrastructure.

3. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

Capabilities & Intentions: The RF is transitioning from localized tactical gains to a broader operational narrative. Gerasimov's public presence on the "Dnipropetrovsk direction" (0451Z) is a deliberate signal of intent to push beyond the Donbas. The claim of capturing 300 sq km in two weeks (0452Z) is intended to project an image of a collapsing UAF front.

Logistics & Sustainment: High attrition (+1,150 personnel) indicates that RF "meat-wave" tactics or high-intensity mechanized assaults continue. However, the claim of "8 settlements" captured suggests they are finding weak points in the UAF's second and third defensive lines.

4. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

Force Posture: UAF forces are currently in a defensive crouch in the East, facing potential encirclement on the Oskil. Air Defense assets in Kyiv and Lviv are actively engaged.

Tactical Successes: UAF continues to inflict significant personnel losses on the enemy, though the loss of Siversk (if confirmed) would be a tactical setback requiring immediate reinforcement of the Sloviansk sector.

5. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

Russian Narrative: RF is flooding the information space with "victory" reports from Gerasimov to demoralize UAF defenders. The TASS report on "Tymoshenko searches" (0433Z) is a classic hybrid op designed to exploit internal Ukrainian political friction and the "personnel crisis" (200k AWOL) mentioned in previous reports.

Anomalous Reports: Reports of French troops to Greenland (0431Z) are likely a distraction or peripheral geopolitical development intended to clutter the intelligence space.

6. OUTLOOK (Next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Most Likely): RF will continue the UAV assault on Kyiv and Lviv to fix AD assets while attempting to finalize the "clearing" of Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi. Ground assaults will persist in the Zaporizhzhia-Dnipropetrovsk border region to consolidate "security zone" claims.

MDCOA (Most Dangerous): The encirclement on the Oskil east bank is total, leading to a localized collapse of the Kupyansk front, allowing RF forces to pivot south toward Lyman and Sloviansk simultaneously with the Siversk-based push.

7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

[CRITICAL] Verify the status of Siversk. Ground truth is required to determine if the Sloviansk approach is open.
[HIGH] Confirm the presence of RF regular units across the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast administrative border. Is this a raid or a sustained occupation of the "security zone"?
[MEDIUM] Assess the damage in Lviv. Identify if the "Geran-4" jet-UAV was utilized in this strike.
[MEDIUM] Monitor for corroboration of the Oskil "encirclement" via UAF tactical channels.

//END OF REPORT//

Situation Report